Geek wrote:Huff is this year's Pat Burrell. This is more than a slow start--it's a guy who's lost his confidence and focus at the plate. Time to sell while people still hold out hope that he'll snap out of it. He won't.
Do you have any kind of information to back this up, or is this just speculation?
Everything in fantasy baseball is speculation. But, he has not hit while the other guys have started to hit better.
But, here are Burrell's numbers through May of last year:
Ugly, to be sure. BUT, they are much better than Huff's numbers this year.
Bottom line: You shouldn't trust young hitters with poor plate discipline. People waited for Richard Hidalgo to get better. It took him two years to figure out how to hit major league pitching once they found the hole in his swing. Huff doesn't know how to work a count yet, and it's showing.
May's not over yet, but here's Huff stats through May 25:
AB: 161
Hits: 37
Runs: 19
RBI: 20
BB: 14
K: 19
Ave.: .230
OBP: .292
Slug: .348
OPS: .640
Certainly not what was expected of Huff, but exactly how do you look at that and claim Burrell's numbers last year were "much better" than Huff's this year. Huff is hitting 23 points higher and has just two less hits in 27 fewer at-bats. He has nine less runs and five less RBI, but again it's in fewer at-bats and those stats are largely team dependant, and there's no real way to argue that last year's Philly lineup isn't far superior to this year's Tampa Bay lineup. Huff has walked less, but he also struck out 43 less times (that's less than a third of the Ks Burrell had at this point last year). Burrell had better slugging and OPS numbers, but overall, I don't think anyone can rationally look at the two sets of stats and claim Burrell was doing "much better" than Huff.
Huff has also definitely started to come around, raising his average 32 points in May with 11 RBI so far this month. The power is still in hibernation, but he's starting to make good contact and the extra-base hits should come. He might still end up being this year's biggest bust, but I think it's foolish to write him off before we even reach Memorial Day.
"I'm telling ya, he jumped us. Gloves off, stick down, no warning. He challenged the Chiefs. Called us names. But Dave was there."
Today's a good day...got both Huff and Burnett off the wire. I don't care how bad he is doing, he is not free agent material. The guy who dropped him says he works for Rotoworld too!!!
aardvarks wrote:Huff will be fine by the end of the season he'll be 300 30 100. Don't worry just a slow start.
To do that, he would have to AVERAGE:
10 hits (.322 average - 50% more hits than he's currently getting), 2 home runs, 5 RBIS PER WEEK for the rest of the year. He has barely done that over a 20 games stretch, let alone over a 7 game span. He would basically have to tripple his current production.
I think that is unlikely.
A more realistic number, assuming he comes out of his slump, would be
.280 average
20 home runs
95 RBIs.
That's IF he gets out of his slump. Not bad numbers for a 3rd baseman, but I think you could get better numbers for an OF/1B.
Geek wrote:Huff is this year's Pat Burrell. This is more than a slow start--it's a guy who's lost his confidence and focus at the plate. Time to sell while people still hold out hope that he'll snap out of it. He won't.
Do you have any kind of information to back this up, or is this just speculation?
Everything in fantasy baseball is speculation. But, he has not hit while the other guys have started to hit better.
But, here are Burrell's numbers through May of last year:
Ugly, to be sure. BUT, they are much better than Huff's numbers this year.
Bottom line: You shouldn't trust young hitters with poor plate discipline. People waited for Richard Hidalgo to get better. It took him two years to figure out how to hit major league pitching once they found the hole in his swing. Huff doesn't know how to work a count yet, and it's showing.
May's not over yet, but here's Huff stats through May 25: AB: 161 Hits: 37 Runs: 19 RBI: 20 BB: 14 K: 19 Ave.: .230 OBP: .292 Slug: .348 OPS: .640
Certainly not what was expected of Huff, but exactly how do you look at that and claim Burrell's numbers last year were "much better" than Huff's this year. Huff is hitting 23 points higher and has just two less hits in 27 fewer at-bats. He has nine less runs and five less RBI, but again it's in fewer at-bats and those stats are largely team dependant, and there's no real way to argue that last year's Philly lineup isn't far superior to this year's Tampa Bay lineup. Huff has walked less, but he also struck out 43 less times (that's less than a third of the Ks Burrell had at this point last year). Burrell had better slugging and OPS numbers, but overall, I don't think anyone can rationally look at the two sets of stats and claim Burrell was doing "much better" than Huff.
Huff has also definitely started to come around, raising his average 32 points in May with 11 RBI so far this month. The power is still in hibernation, but he's starting to make good contact and the extra-base hits should come. He might still end up being this year's biggest bust, but I think it's foolish to write him off before we even reach Memorial Day.
Burrell had some awful looking numbers, but at least he produced. Even if they're about the same (I don't count K's as a negative--an out is an out), that's pretty horrible company to keep (in terms of numbers--Burrell is showing that he's still a great talent).
A) I don't think its coincidence that TB and NY both slumped as a team after that initial series. I don't know if it was from starting year too early, jet lag, bad saki or what but it seems like everyone on both teams came out slow.
B) Huff was really really sick at the beginning of the year. So much so they said you could physically see he had lost weight.
I think those are the causes of Huff's slump more than anything. He's hitting .240 in May, not all that bad but he has no power. Neither does Carlos Lee, Derreck Lee, Geoff Jenkins, Vernon Wells to name a few. Power hitters sometimes just don't have their power for the first part of their season.
he'll turn it around.. he's 8 for his last 21 which isnt necessarily a hot streak, but a good sign, and even with his crap hitting, he still has found a way to get 20 RBI which isnt much, but its something. RIght now hes on pace for 74 RBI.. so even if he slightly increases his productivity, he'll be up around 90 or 95. Just about the same with runs. (the projections are done over 600 AB's at his current pace)
Huff is fine. He started the season off more unlucky than anything else. Just about everything he hit hard was right at someone. That led to an overall slump, where he just seemed to get his mechanics messed up, but he seems fine now.
As it is, his hit rate is not bad at all. A 14/19 BB/K ratio in 161 AB is certainly no problem.
I'd expect his power numbers to begin rising and his average is already beginning to climb.
the reason im not panicing with huff is that his strikeout ratio is way down, and his strikeout to walk ratio is about even which is fine. If he was whiffin alot more i would be worried. Seems like if he isnt striking out it is jus some minor adjustment he needs to make, and when he does it will jus click. If a guy is constantly fanning like Burrell was last year then it becomes mental. The fact he is putting the ball into play is a positive.
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by Geek » Tue May 25, 2004 1:19 pm 
