Have you seen Pujols' left/right splits this season???

[Elohim]

I was checking out Pujols' splits cuz I just made an offer of Overbay, Sheets, and C. Tracy for Pujols and Isringhuasen.
Here is the link: http://fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/v ... 116#413116


Anyway, a couple people said the offer was too lopsided and that the other owner wouldn't consider it, and while that's probably true that he won't accept it, I don't think it's as lopsided as most people think. In fact, I wouldn't have even made the offer if I didn't need saves.


The average owner always puts too much emphasis on last season's stats, which is why that person still thinks that Overbay is a fluke and that Pujols is still the #1 fantasy hitter in the NL. But if you look at Pujols' splits for the past 3 seasons, there is a disturbing trend:


BATTING AVG.

2002: .315 vs. right, .309 vs. left (6 pts higher vs. right)
2003: .350 vs. right, .387 vs. left (37 pts higher vs. left)
2004: . 240 vs. right, .481 vs. left (241 pts higher vs. left)

SLUGGING %

2002: .555 vs. right, .579 vs. left (24 pts higher vs. left)
2003: .646 vs. right, .732 vs. left (86 pts higher vs. left)
2004: .471 vs right, .889 vs. left (418 pts higher vs. left)


As a right-handed hitter, Pujols is expected to perform better vs. lefties, and he has hit them harder and harder every year. Unfortunately for him, the only left-handed starters in the NL Central are: Pettite, D. Davis, Capuano, and Oliver Perez.

But he has been successful in the past because he has hit righties hard as well. In 2002, he actually had a higher BA vs. righties, and his slugging % splits were very close. In 2003, he hit righties hard but KILLED lefties, widening the gap. This season he has continued his dominance over lefties, but his numbers vs. righties has dropped significantly.


If this trend continues, he isn't going to be the stud that everyone makes him out to be. Have right-handed pitchers finally figured him out?

[Melo255]

Umm...NO. He IS still the best hitter. He is struggling right now but you have to give him more time before you compare this years stats to years previous. I highly doubt opposing pitchers have figured him out since he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. It's not like his K numbers have jumped up he just isn't getting the luck at the moment that he has in the past. What I mean is that he is still hitting the ball exceptionally hard but right now it's going right at people instead of an extra couple of foot to either side. Wait until the year is over then come back with this same argument and if it's still as it is now then I will eat my socks and my words.

[slomo007]

I'm not saying he's right, but I'm not saying he's wrong. I thought about it for a while before responding, and he does have a valid point. However, Melo also has a valid point that the sample size for this year is still very small....but these types of things do happen (see Jeter). I agree he will still remain a top fantasy option, even if his average falls to the .330 range, but I am very very interested by the analysis that went into this post. Very interesting points were made elohim. Good job

[Geek]

Sample size makes this year's split meaningless so far.


What are you gonna do, bench him?

[slomo007]

By the way, the truly GOOD hitters adapt their swing to the way pitchers are pitching them....so it's like a never ending cycle. I do have faith that Pujols is a GOOD hitter, so he'll likely correct his swing very soon (he analyzes his swing more than pretty much anyone in the Majors), and then his stats will climb again, until pitchers figure him out again...etc.

[ajgnydc722]

Even if you had Gagne and Smoltz as your closers I'd do that trade. Pujols is arguabley the best player in baseball and no hot start by Overbay or 18 k performance by Sheets (against Atlanta BTW) makes up for that.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Sample size.

Splits are pretty meaningless until they are based on more than 1,000 plate appearances. What you see for Pujols this year is most likely nothing more than random.

[Elohim]

I agree he will still remain a top fantasy option, even if his average falls to the .330 range, but I am very very interested by the analysis that went into this post. Very interesting points were made elohim. Good job

thanks man. Some Pujols' owners seem to have taken offense. I am trying to trade FOR the guy after all.

[Strasil42]

I just made an offer of Overbay, Sheets, and C. Tracy for Pujols and Isringhuasen.

no one in their right mind would ever ever EVER accept that trade. Im a pujols owner and if someone offered that to me id be pissed. I hate lowball offers, especially for the best player in baseball.

[Elohim]

I just made an offer of Overbay, Sheets, and C. Tracy for Pujols and Isringhuasen.

no one in their right mind would ever ever EVER accept that trade. Im a pujols owner and if someone offered that to me id be pissed. I hate lowball offers, especially for the best player in baseball.

What an insightful comment. Maybe if your top 3 starters were Leiter, J. Williams, and Joe Kennedy and your 1st basemen were LaRoche and JT Snow you'd feel differently. And the best player in baseball isn't Pujols buddy...