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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun May 16, 2004 12:10 pm

he'd have to have a terrible slump to only get 90 RBIs now. Hes got 36 RBIs, which is pretty ridiculous. Rolen also has 36 so they are tied. He'll slow down, but Ill bet he has a good season.
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Postby JOEG » Sun May 16, 2004 12:46 pm

Not saying he keeps this up, but projecting his stats to a 150 game season gives you

358/21/150 83 Doubles 204 Hits - not so bad - being the season almost a forth over is it to late to use the "he'll cool off" card?

To get just 90 RBI's like a lot of people are saying is only 54 more in about 114 games (probabbly will play 150) thats a RBI every 2.11 games. Right now he has a RBI averaged in EVERY game. This means he would not only have to drop off quite a bit but cut his production in over half!!!

I don't think theres anyway to argue that his average is legit after his minor league stats and instant comparisons to such an unreal basehitter in Grace. This being said - another huge rave on him in his prospect reports was he was automatic in RISP situations. This has been proven to a T earlier in this thread. We all agree Podsednik is an above average leadoff hitter with elite base stealing talent, who will be in scoring Position a lot for that middle of the order, we also all agree that Jenkins and Ginter/Spivey are good hitters that hit a lot of doubles. I magine a Richie Weeks batting second in 3 months? I think it would be stupid to say that his hitting situations are going to go down, which I think with his makeup mean his RBI's will stay constant or fall down to the 120 pace, which is still elite.

As far as homers go, i wouldn't say 20 is his ceiling... maybe this year he might only hit 20, but with that smooth or a swing you cannot say he's going to only hit 20 when he matures (he's only 26 years old!) I've watched about a 100 AB's for him this year since my Twins were idiots with the TV thing and he crushes the ball almost every AB, ever double is almost warning track at least, you can't tell me 15 more of those arnt going to sneak out. The knock on him is that he didn't hit many homers in the minors? Who really did?

Just my 2 cents

My prediction is

325/25/120 --- laugh at the homers all you want, but I have watched him all year and see much more power then the average review is giving him.

PS - one more thing to remember is his protection Wes Helms was having a brutal year - he is heating up real quick this week, also Spivey will be back soon, and you could almost argue that Jenkins is having a slow start.
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over

Postby JOEG » Sun May 16, 2004 12:56 pm

Here are some interesting reads on him... warning - more US magizine then Fantasy Forcast - but still interesting and makes you want to follow the fool more

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mil/news/mil_news.jsp?ymd=20040514&content_id=742877&vkey=news_mil&fext=.jsp

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mil/news/mil_news.jsp?ymd=20040507&content_id=737508&vkey=news_mil&fext=.jsp


Another thing that cought my eye on mlb.com was

Quick Splits:
vs. Left: .350 vs. Right: .359
Last 30 Days: .438

How interesting is that?

One more for you

RISP
342/3/27 429 OBA

But most importantly is 8/8 K/BB ratio!!
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holy

Postby JOEG » Sun May 16, 2004 2:28 pm

Well one more double - two more RBI and one more CRUSHED shot
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun May 16, 2004 3:42 pm

Lyle Overbay is RIDICULOSO!!!!!! Another smash double for 2 RBIs. Thank god I got him, because my "starter" Big Tex is sucking it up big time.
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Postby rlee » Sun May 16, 2004 3:44 pm

CubsFan. You're in the same position I'm in. When Tex got hurt I started looking for 1B insurance and picked up Overbay. Now, I start Teixeira sometimes at my utility position, depending on the pitcher. !+)

Overbay has been a lifesaver these past 2 weeks :*)
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Postby Longhorns76 » Mon May 17, 2004 2:12 am

I severely underestimated the guy. I knew of what he was capable of doing but what he was actually doing seemed to be more incredible. I was thinking he was a Sean Casey clone with some value but I'm finding out he might be what Mike Sweeney should be without the injury burden.

Thanks to threads like these I nabbed him as quickly as I could after I realized what he was doing with the all the doubles and RBI's.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon May 17, 2004 2:39 am

Heh. I'm another Tex owner who's been happy to add Overbay to the lineup. Frankly, I'm amazed he was still available when I added him earlier this week!
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Postby Silver Slugger » Mon May 17, 2004 4:03 am

the only knock i see on the guy is his age - at 27 he's no spring chicken. he hit for average in the minors, so i am penciling him in for 300-15-100, but that is becuase i am conservative. truth be told, i grabbed him for my bench because i have d. lee at first and v. wells, beltran, abreu and mags in the OF/Util, and i figgured it was best to have a line-drive/contact hitter who wouldn't be slump prone as a backup, but now, i dunno. its starting to look like it may behoove me to clear a starting spot...
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