In terms of the law of averages and your projected preseason stats.
I projected Glaus to hit .250-.260 preseason. He's hitting .296. Does it make it reasonable that he'll hit much lower for the rest of the year, for the average to round down?
Rolen at .339...I projected at .290. Does that mean we'll see him hit about .275 or whatever it would take for the average to taper down?
Young at .362...down to .310?
And some guys going up?
Huff at .205...does that mean he'll average above .300 for the rest of the year to pull him up to about .300?
Giles at .260...up to .300?
Wells at .257...back up above .300?
Ultimately, the question is, does that make it smarter to stay away from the guys that have done amazingly well, not just because they will have high prices, but because that means they'll probably cool off very significantly and go into cold slumps later on? How often do these hot years actually stay really hot and the cold years not improve too much? So, how much of a part does the law of averages play?
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If I had someone projected to hit .300, say Jeter or Lo Duca, then I really don't care what they are currently hitting. I know if I trade for one of them, they will hit .300 for me for the rest of the season.
Current stats should mean very little.
The law of averages doesn't mean that if Jeter hits .200 the first half, he will hit .400 the second half. That's purely erroneous.
"And so he spoke, and so he spoke, that lord of Castamere. But now the rains weep o'er his hall, with no one there to hear." - The Rains of Castamere
Good question, because I think about this a lot. After studying stats before drafts, during the year, etc., and I am sure you have noticed this, but a .310 hitter will usually end as a .310 hitter despite his current average.
Take this great example, Mike Lowell always has a hot April/May. Lets say .360-15-33. This can sell sell high, and a great time to do so would be in the middle of June, because I know that he is NOT a .360 hitter, and will slump in the second half to reach the guaranteed .275 that he ends with each year.
Just look out for that career year. Adrian Belter? Craig Wilson? Too early to tell, but odds are, they will cool off.
"I live for this game. If baseballs went well with eggs, Id eat them for breakfast..."
Yeah. A lot of people said that Miguel Cabrera would hit 30 HR this year. I have heard some people say that because he has already hit around 10, then he should only hit about 20 the rest of the year. BS of the highest form. Because of his hot start, I would project him now to hit around 40 HR, maybe a little less. That means that he would hit what people projected for him before the season the rest of this year.
MCab is not the best example, cause he is totally unproven and we dont have any numbers on him in the bigs over a full season at all, so we cant project for him based on past experiences. Jeter is a much better example. If you are trading for him, expect him to hit around 300 the rest of the year, because that is how he has hit his entire career. He will have some cold and hot streaks, but he will not all the sudden go crazy and hit 500 to bring his overall average up to par with the rest of his seasons.
Basically, dont stick with your pre-season projections for this entire year; take those projections and shrink them down to fit the rest of the season, and you have how that player will do for the rest of the season. However, if the player is either young or at a changing point in his career (after an uncharacteristicly bad year, an injury, etc), dont think that they will necesarily return to that bad form, especially if they are playing well right now.
Only way current stats matter to me is if I'm making the offer. And I try to play to peoples wants. A couple of people want Giambi in my league. I tell them to look at his stats over the past 10 games and he's hitting over .400 and hitting HR's to. So I try and make the value of my player better than it probably is.. which im sure everyone does. Guys that are in a hot streak I wont touch if someone offered them to me because it usually means they are trying to get something for nothing.
I agree. The question, I guess, is whether pre-season projections take into account an unexpected hot start?
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I completely disregard hot starts or cold starts and keep my original projections in place. When considering a trade offer, the only way I care if a guy is hitting .200 or .400 right now is if he will be a temporary replacement for an injured player or someone that is cold right now (in H2H). I won't give up much for him, because you pick up hot hitters off the WW. For the long run, if a guy is a career .300 hitter (over 4 or 5 seasons at least) and he is hitting .400 now, I figure he will hit .300 the rest of the year, not .250 to bring him down to his career average. Works the same way in reverse. If a .235 hitter is hitting .380, he will likely go back to his .235 pace, not .180. The hot or cold starts typically change their season average only 5 points or so over the course of the season.
--When they are likely the result of some kind of lingering injury (ie, Corey Patterson and SBs)
--When it is not a proven player (ie I am more likely to chalk Jose Contreras's bad start up to tru crappiness than Mussina's, since Moose has a stellar track record)
--When closers are involved--there are lots of guys who ust fall apart on that job for no apparant reason in a way that doens't happen with other positions.
Really depends on the player. A solid guy who puts up numbers every year, I pay no attention. A guy like David Ortiz or Guillen who had a breakout year last year after a bunch of mediocre years, I tend to put more stock into it then. Both of those guys went up in value in my mind with their starts because it gives me confidence that last year wasn't just a fluke.