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Vlad - No SB's this year?

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Postby slomo007 » Mon May 10, 2004 5:37 pm

If Beltran has 30 SBs or more, and Vlad has between 5-10, Vlad would have to hit about 60-80 HRs compared to Beltran's 40-45 to make him more valuable. In a standard roto league, a stud OFer who can steal is not comparable to a stud OFer who can't IMO. The run production won't be much different, neither will the average, though Vlad has a slight advantage in both. I took Soriano with the 3rd pick, and would have taken Beltran 4th, Helton 5th and Vlad 6th.
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Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon May 10, 2004 5:47 pm

You are all ready to assume that Beltran will hit 40-45? He didn't even get to 30 last year, and while I know injuries factored in to that, he's certainly no lock for 40.

So let's say for the sake of argument (roto league purposes) that Beltran goes:

110 Rs, 33 HRs, 105 RBIs (hitting in the 2 hole mind you), 29 SBs, 306 AVG

and Vlad goes

105Rs, 45 HRs, 125 RBIs, 3 SBs, 328 AVG

Does that make Beltran more valuable? It really depends on the nature of your league and what your specific roto needs are.

These aren't unrealistic projections for either player. Take your pick, it's hard for me to call Vlad a mistake.
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Postby slomo007 » Mon May 10, 2004 6:02 pm

I agree with your projections, except Beltran will probably have more than 29 SBs, barring injury. They are on the same level almost, if only Vlad would start running again, he'd be the MVP fantasy player.
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Postby pitnit » Mon May 10, 2004 6:03 pm

I agree that if Vlad doesn't steal, he isn't any more valuable than players like Helton or Manny Ramirez. I would even take them over Vlad because you KNOW what numbers you'll expect from them, year in year out. Guerrero, on the other hand, is still recovering from injuries, so he's more of a risk. It's his power and speed that make him such a valued commodity. If you strip away his speed, then I think he should go no higher than late first, early second round pick this year.
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Postby Kegglers » Mon May 10, 2004 6:06 pm

jbones733 wrote:yeah, i would be suprised to see 5 sb's , I cam into the year expecting nothing in that category,. any stolen bases would of been a plus. I want the .330 avg 40+ homers & 100+ ribbie's
;-D


samereasons why I drafted him.
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Postby GSes » Mon May 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Guerrero is capable of putting up some ridiculous power numbers. with th e loaded angels lineup

50 HR/150 RBI/340avg isnt out of the question

Those numbers would more then justify a first rd pick.

A solid/fair projection would prob be 40HR/120RBI/330 avg

I don't know if Beltran can hit 40HR. I do belive Beltran will steal 40SB. Beltran 40/40? It is possible. Carlos Beltran is simply the most exciting player in baseball. In the end Vlad will have more HR,RBI,Runs, and a higer AVG

Beltran will have way more SB. But if Beltran does in fact go 40/40 or even close then those SB outweight wutever small amount of RBI/Runs/HR/avg vlad has over beltran. These are the top 2 fantasy outfielders in the game.
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Postby godallahstar » Mon May 10, 2004 6:32 pm

have you guys seen beltran play?

he's nowhere near touching 40 HR,

he hit 29 in '02,
26 last year - it's not like he missed a considerable amount of time either, just the first 16 games.

and on top of that, they moved the fences back in KC,
and a third of his home runs this year, have come in the 2nd easiest HR park.........
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Postby jbones733 » Mon May 10, 2004 7:19 pm

I agree, while i dont play in a typical 5x5 league either but w/out looking at any #'s i just like Vlad better than Beltran . I think he has much more power, so he will hit alot more hoe runs & drive in a ton of more runs alos in that loaded lineup, Yes Beltran gets the steals & thts huge but IMO Vlad if playing a full season will put up HUGE #'s in the other cat , prob 10-15 more homer & 20 rbi's more than Beltran

both are absolute studs & u cant go wrong with either one, & Vlad doesent look completely healthy either,
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Postby thetongueofire » Mon May 10, 2004 7:53 pm

just to chime in a lil Beltran's a lot more valuable in a 5x5 league than he is in deeper one cos of the greater impact of his SB's, we prolly wouldnt have been having this discussion this seriously if everyone played like a 9x9 or something...
[size=10]Manny Ramirez....$20 million
Pedro Martinez....$17.5 million
Curt Schilling...$12 million (and a $2 million bonus)
Never hearing a Yankee fan chant 1918 again...priceless. [/size]
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Postby sammyfan711 » Mon May 10, 2004 8:56 pm

I still consider Vlad a five-tool player. Before the year is over, he should attempt a few. I think Angels brass is protecting their investment by not letting him run. Once the knee feels better he should steal a few. Beltran is a potential 40-40 man - he hit 26 in 141 games last year. The key factor with Beltran this year is that its his walk year. If he does goes 40-40, it should mean an extra 20 million or so on his long-term deal.
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