If Beltran has 30 SBs or more, and Vlad has between 5-10, Vlad would have to hit about 60-80 HRs compared to Beltran's 40-45 to make him more valuable. In a standard roto league, a stud OFer who can steal is not comparable to a stud OFer who can't IMO. The run production won't be much different, neither will the average, though Vlad has a slight advantage in both. I took Soriano with the 3rd pick, and would have taken Beltran 4th, Helton 5th and Vlad 6th.
I agree with your projections, except Beltran will probably have more than 29 SBs, barring injury. They are on the same level almost, if only Vlad would start running again, he'd be the MVP fantasy player.
I agree that if Vlad doesn't steal, he isn't any more valuable than players like Helton or Manny Ramirez. I would even take them over Vlad because you KNOW what numbers you'll expect from them, year in year out. Guerrero, on the other hand, is still recovering from injuries, so he's more of a risk. It's his power and speed that make him such a valued commodity. If you strip away his speed, then I think he should go no higher than late first, early second round pick this year.
Guerrero is capable of putting up some ridiculous power numbers. with th e loaded angels lineup
50 HR/150 RBI/340avg isnt out of the question
Those numbers would more then justify a first rd pick.
A solid/fair projection would prob be 40HR/120RBI/330 avg
I don't know if Beltran can hit 40HR. I do belive Beltran will steal 40SB. Beltran 40/40? It is possible. Carlos Beltran is simply the most exciting player in baseball. In the end Vlad will have more HR,RBI,Runs, and a higer AVG
Beltran will have way more SB. But if Beltran does in fact go 40/40 or even close then those SB outweight wutever small amount of RBI/Runs/HR/avg vlad has over beltran. These are the top 2 fantasy outfielders in the game.
I agree, while i dont play in a typical 5x5 league either but w/out looking at any #'s i just like Vlad better than Beltran . I think he has much more power, so he will hit alot more hoe runs & drive in a ton of more runs alos in that loaded lineup, Yes Beltran gets the steals & thts huge but IMO Vlad if playing a full season will put up HUGE #'s in the other cat , prob 10-15 more homer & 20 rbi's more than Beltran
both are absolute studs & u cant go wrong with either one, & Vlad doesent look completely healthy either,
just to chime in a lil Beltran's a lot more valuable in a 5x5 league than he is in deeper one cos of the greater impact of his SB's, we prolly wouldnt have been having this discussion this seriously if everyone played like a 9x9 or something...
[size=10]Manny Ramirez....$20 million
Pedro Martinez....$17.5 million
Curt Schilling...$12 million (and a $2 million bonus)
Never hearing a Yankee fan chant 1918 again...priceless. [/size]
I still consider Vlad a five-tool player. Before the year is over, he should attempt a few. I think Angels brass is protecting their investment by not letting him run. Once the knee feels better he should steal a few. Beltran is a potential 40-40 man - he hit 26 in 141 games last year. The key factor with Beltran this year is that its his walk year. If he does goes 40-40, it should mean an extra 20 million or so on his long-term deal.