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Who'd you prefer long-term: Peavy or Zambrano??

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Postby hybrid » Mon May 10, 2004 1:22 am

i don't think this post could make any less sense. got a bunch of wins the first week or two? well you usually just get 1 start per week, so how did he get a bunch? also i'd like to know what you call fizzled out, zambrano's last 2 game have been:

-9IP 2H 0BB 0ER 5K
-7IP 3H 3BB 0ER 12K

so in closing you made no sense what so ever.
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Postby EK711 » Mon May 10, 2004 1:31 am

hybrid wrote:i don't think this post could make any less sense. got a bunch of wins the first week or two? well you usually just get 1 start per week, so how did he get a bunch? also i'd like to know what you call fizzled out, zambrano's last 2 game have been:

-9IP 2H 0BB 0ER 5K
-7IP 3H 3BB 0ER 12K

so in closing you made no sense what so ever.


Wasn't the 12k a career high for him? Complete game 2 hit shutouts are also rather nice....

In fact Carlos had 7 runs in one start this season against Arizona and then 3 runs in his other 5 starts combined.

Zambrano hands down, no questions asked.
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Postby Ender » Mon May 10, 2004 9:17 am

You are correct, my post made no sense because I was thinking Victor Zambrano, I forgot about the other one. Peavy and Carlos is pretty close, Peavy's numbers probably will be a little better because Carlos is bound to get shelled a couple times pitching in wrigley, Zambrano will get more W's though.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Mon May 10, 2004 9:44 am

Registered_Guest wrote:Thank you Hootie, glad you answered.

As a Cub fan, I love Zambrano but Peavy's BB/K combined with K/IP is more impressive to me than Zambrano's past (minors included) -- which makes the decision tougher for me.

However, I 100% disagree with the TJ statement on Zambrano.
The curve is what puts the most strain on the elbow (as the other poster alluded to as well)......which is what got Wood that surgery. Having had TJ surgery myself and having throw curves recklessly as a young teen is what caused it. I still remember May 07, 1999 or 2000. I believe, that 20 K game by Wood vs. the Astros. That curve was absolute dynamic, I think the reason Derek Bell's career went downhill is because Wood broke his back with his curve that game.

Having a hard time with the deal. The actual deal is: Peavy/Andy Marte for Gerut/Fielder. Fielder and Marte are free to keep until they surpass rookie eligiblity. After that, they'd both be $8.

I have Blalock and Burroughs both as keeper possibilities. Blalock @ $4/ Burroughs @ $5 and there's +3/added per year kept (i.e. Blalock's $7 in '05 and Burroughs $8 in '05 if I decide to keep). Blalock's not moving anywhere, barring a serious injury, for the next decade.

Another thing of note is this is 6x6 league (hitter K's is a category -- Marte swings and misses too much for my tastes). Added to that, I believe Fielder's the best minor leaguer in baseball.


Nice analysis Reg,

I would have to know how much CZ and Peavy cost you (and your budget) to be able to give an opinion. Both are excellent keepers and for the record I like CZ more than Peavy.

I am not that excited about Fielder and I'm sure that I don't need to warn you about trading a true ML stud for "potential". I am still smarting from shellling out last year for Edwin Jackson, another "can't miss" prospect.

Peavy would have to cost me $15+ next year to even consider the deal. In a keeper league, a foundation of Peavy and CZ will carry a pitching staff for quite a few years.
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Postby Registered_Guest » Mon May 10, 2004 1:04 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:I would have to know how much CZ and Peavy cost you (and your budget) to be able to give an opinion. Both are excellent keepers and for the record I like CZ more than Peavy.


Sorry, this is turning more into a Keeper forum thing now.

Here's my situation: Get to keep a MAX of 6 from: (Note +$3/year to keep -- Zambrano would be $7 in '05; Peavy $7 in '05). $260 cap.

AJ Burnett ($1)
Blalock ($4)
Jose Reyes ($4)
Zambrano ($4)
Peavy ($4)
Sabathia ($5)
Burroughs ($5)
Javier Vazquez ($16)
Pujols ($43)

Blalock/Reyes/Zambrano/Peavy/Vazquez/Pujols were my keepers from last year -- got them all relatively cheap at the auction then. And got Sabathia for Edmonds here this preseason.

I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket and keep more than 3 pitchers.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Mon May 10, 2004 2:29 pm

If you can keep Peavy and Z for $7 each for 2005 and for $10 each for 2006 you would be, IMO, freakin nuts to trade them away for any prospect. Prince is supposed to be a Mo Vaughn type of hitter but he will not be an everyday player until next year at the earliest and he still ranks behind Rios and Casey Kotchman.
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Postby Steve Kemp » Mon May 10, 2004 2:33 pm

[quote="Absolutely Adequate"]I would keep Peavy, and I'll tell you why. I've seen Zambrano pitch and I don't like his motion. He's got weird mechanics. People talk about how Prior has perfect mechanics and that's why he isn't a good candidate for injurys later. Zambrano is the total opposite.

And I'd be having trouble with that deal as well, though. I think I'm as big a believer in Prince as you're going to find, but Marte is also a top prospect. Also, I think that Gerut is not as good as his numbers indicate.

All in all, I'd probably consider the deal for awhile and then turn it down. See if you can't squeeze a little more out of it to make it a better deal.[/quote]


But Prior's on the 60-day DL, so that theory is shot...keep Carlos
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue May 11, 2004 11:21 pm

Registered_Guest wrote:Thank you Hootie, glad you answered.


However, I 100% disagree with the TJ statement on Zambrano.
The curve is what puts the most strain on the elbow (as the other poster alluded to as well)......which is what got Wood that surgery.

Added to that, I believe Fielder's the best minor leaguer in baseball.


Throwing overhand puts strain on the arm. Sure, maybe the curve puts the most, but it's still not a good idea to give any youngster high pitch counts.

Like was stated, i wouldn't trade Peavy or CZ for potential. Fielder is a top guy, but hasn't proven what the 2 sp have.

BA put out a couple lists, Prince was 7th. He could be higher. Personally, Upton is my top minors guy guy. Fielder plays a easy spot to fill (1b), so he's going to have to be pretty good to give up a young stud sp.
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed May 12, 2004 1:07 am

HOOTIE wrote:Fielder plays a easy spot to fill (1b), so he's going to have to be pretty good to give up a young stud sp.


Good point. ;-D
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Postby Longhorns76 » Wed May 12, 2004 2:31 am

I have issues with Fielder. I really think he is going to be another Moe Vaughn and at a younger age. His weight could balloon to 300 if he keeps growing.

As far as Peavy/Zambrano, I personally love Peavy. He is much more stable mentally than Zambrano. Excitable isn't something you want in a pitcher. That usually equates to "headcase". The only guy I can think of who can be that way and not get rattled is Pedro. I see Zambrano being the kind of guy who shuts you out or he absulutely gets shelled. No in between. Peavy has pitched behind 1-0 or 2-0 a couple of times this year I believe and he seems better in the end than the beginning. He's a competitor and he's tough. Lets give him his due. He is a hot bat away from being a solid number one for this year.
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