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Michael Young, sell high?

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Postby fastanfurious725 » Fri May 07, 2004 10:42 pm

ya bonds deffinetly screwed that golden age thing over lol. heres my reasons why i wouldnt give up young for jeter:
1. youngs shoulder is 100% intact.
2. young is 2b eligible
3. young hasnt had an 0-32 slump this year (or any year)
4. jeter is batting an pathetic .179 while his obp is at .250
5. jeter has a grand total of 1 HR, 8 RBI, 10 runs, and 9 walks. if i had anyone on my team with that statline id drop them whether its barry bonds, derek jeter, or rick ankiel.
6. jeters a yankee.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri May 07, 2004 10:44 pm

Bonds is also pumped chock full of steroids. That age is usually when hitters mature and get used to playing at the major league level. Right now the only guy I can think of is Carlos Beltran, who was 27 last year. oh and if jeter didnt play for the yankees, would you still value you him as better than micheal young? I wouldnt.
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Postby GucciBaseballs » Fri May 07, 2004 10:49 pm

fastanfurious725 wrote:ya bonds deffinetly screwed that golden age thing over lol. heres my reasons why i wouldnt give up young for jeter:
1. youngs shoulder is 100% intact.
2. young is 2b eligible
3. young hasnt had an 0-32 slump this year (or any year)
4. jeter is batting an pathetic .179 while his obp is at .250
5. jeter has a grand total of 1 HR, 8 RBI, 10 runs, and 9 walks. if i had anyone on my team with that statline id drop them whether its barry bonds, derek jeter, or rick ankiel.
6. jeters a yankee.


My rebuttal to some
1. If Jeter's shoulder wasn't 100% he would not be playing

3. Think of it this way, everyone slumps at one time or another. So Jeter has already got his out of the way. Most of the people who are predicting Young over Jeter have Young slightly over Jeter in projections. But if young and Jeter have the exact same season totals at the end of the year, from this point on Jeter would be more productive than Young.

4. Jeter is batting 179 as a result of the slump. Young is batting over 300 because of his streak.

5. If you would drop a good player after 1 month you are way too fickle to play FB. (could i get in your league please, I would love picking up your slumping players and watching them break out B-) )

6. The Ranger offense is nowhere near as good as the Yankees, and it helps to remove real life biases to win FB
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri May 07, 2004 10:54 pm

When does a streak turn into consistency btw? Youngs been hitting like this for a month and a week now. Jeter has been bad for that same amount of time. I do not agree with number 5 of what fastanfurious wrote, its way too early to drop a player with good value. As for selling mike young, if you have a good replacement and you have a need elsewhere and you can sacrifice those runs Young will give you, then by all means trade him. I really want Jeter to do bad this season and Young to be great just so I can say "I told you so" to them Yankee fans :-D
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Postby GucciBaseballs » Fri May 07, 2004 10:55 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:Bonds is also pumped chock full of steroids. That age is usually when hitters mature and get used to playing at the major league level. Right now the only guy I can think of is Carlos Beltran, who was 27 last year. oh and if jeter didnt play for the yankees, would you still value you him as better than micheal young? I wouldnt.


It certainly helps to be a yankee. Even if Jeter wasn't a yankee i would value him over Young. But does it really matter, because Jeter will be a yankee for a long time. BTW if there is only one example you can think of, of the "golden age of hitters" then I think you have helped me prove it a myth.
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Postby GucciBaseballs » Fri May 07, 2004 11:00 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:When does a streak turn into consistency btw? Youngs been hitting like this for a month and a week now. Jeter has been bad for that same amount of time. I do not agree with number 5 of what fastanfurious wrote, its way too early to drop a player with good value. As for selling mike young, if you have a good replacement and you have a need elsewhere and you can sacrifice those runs Young will give you, then by all means trade him. I really want Jeter to do bad this season and Young to be great just so I can say "I told you so" to them Yankee fans :-D


Obviously, if Young keeps up this pace then he will be better than Jeter. But, based on their previous stats, one must assume that Jeter will pick it up and Young slow down. It is possible for YOung, but highly UNLIKELY.

In terms of when a streak becomes consistency, it is a long season. If Young keeps this up he would have 35 hrs, 133 rbis, 17 sb, a 376 avg and 162 runs. I don't think I need to prove how great the spike from his career numbers to reach these projections would be.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri May 07, 2004 11:08 pm

hey im tired and i dont feel like doing the hours of research to prove it. Its the weekend, I shouldnt have to do some schoolwork for ya. Beltran was the only one I could think of. Now that I looked a bit more, Sammy was pretty close to 27(29-30) when he got really good, and Podsednik was 27 last year. Sexson was 27 when he hit 45 homers in 2001. Garret Anderson was 28 when he slugged 35 homers and 117 RBIs in 2000 I believe. in 1998 and 99, when Manny Ramirez was 26 and 27, he hit 45 homers and 44 homers, with 145 RBIs in the first year and a killer 165 RBIs in 99. B Giles in 99 at 28 slugged 39 homers and 115 RBIs. So thats 7 I have found so far. How many more do you want? Damn I could have wrote a research paper on this :-D .
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Postby GucciBaseballs » Fri May 07, 2004 11:11 pm

That was only 6 players. I am not questioning you so much as the common theory. It would be something interesting to research, maybe I will figure it out during the offseason...
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Postby FantasyFreak » Sat May 08, 2004 12:32 am

sure, he cant keep up a .370 average, but he can definetly keep it above .300. This guy has a lot of talent
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sat May 08, 2004 10:16 am

alright I'll throw out Sosa since he was 30 that year. That leaves Beltran, Podsednik, M Ramirez, B Giles, Sexson, and Anderson, leaving me with 6. I could find more, but not willing to do the work. Also mike young will not keep up .370, but .300-.330 is believable. 100 runs is a definite possibility, as is maybe 20 homers. 15 SB could happen too. 70-80 RBIs also. RBIs are a crapshoot though because people have to be on base and such, so they are hard to predict.
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