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Time to cut ties with Aubrey Huff?

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Postby BronsonPinchot » Wed May 05, 2004 11:37 am

Huff isn't better than Burnitz. Well, he is, but Burnitz is in CO this year. Huff is also better than Bill S., but that didn't stop Bill S. from having a huge year last season in Colorado. Unless you really need the batting average, which is the only category that Huff will be outplaying Burnitz in (assuming he gets his stroke back), then make the deal. Otherwise, don't. Burnitz in CO is an ideal match, accept the fact that you made a good pick with Burnitz and ride him out. He'll get more HR, more RBI, and more R than Aubrey Huff. Without a doubt. This trade would be like buying an item that severely dropped in price for more than it was initially worth before the price drop. Hang on to your good players.
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Postby KolbSaves » Wed May 05, 2004 11:40 am

Better batting average by 40 points you say?
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Postby Transmogrifier » Wed May 05, 2004 11:41 am

BronsonPinchot wrote:Huff isn't better than Burnitz. Well, he is, but Burnitz is in CO this year. Huff is also better than Bill S., but that didn't stop Bill S. from having a huge year last season in Colorado. Unless you really need the batting average, which is the only category that Huff will be outplaying Burnitz in (assuming he gets his stroke back), then make the deal. Otherwise, don't. Burnitz in CO is an ideal match, accept the fact that you made a good pick with Burnitz and ride him out. He'll get more HR, more RBI, and more R than Aubrey Huff. Without a doubt. This trade would be like buying an item that severely dropped in price for more than it was initially worth before the price drop. Hang on to your good players.


I disagree with just about everything you said. Huff is the easy choice there.
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Postby Madison » Wed May 05, 2004 11:43 am

I've got Huff in two leagues and he's not going anywhere. His value is to low to trade him for anything and I'm not going to cut him this early in the season. I really do hope he wakes up pretty soon though. :-o
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Postby Zen Boy » Wed May 05, 2004 11:45 am

I too disagree

I'm guessing you drafted Burnitz pretty late, you'd be getting a lot of upside potential for a pretty minimal investment. Low risk, high reward.

For those of you thinking about trading Huff, don't do it unless the other manager is willing to concede that Huff has latent value despite his decline in actual value . . .
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Postby BronsonPinchot » Wed May 05, 2004 11:58 am

I'm not a Burnitz owner (except, I think, in some public leagues that I don't update), but I do wish I was. People just don't respect Jeremy Burnitz. He's hit over thirty homers 5 times in his career. He's gotten close to 40. He's playing in CO. Aubrey is a good young hitter, but he's only topped 30 and 100 once. I also wouldn't advise trading Huff for too little, especially when his value isn't low. The thing is, Burnitz isn't too little. He has a great shot at 40 homers this year, and his RBI and R will be very high. Higher than Huff, and theres no reason sans blind faith to believe Huff will have a better year. Let me put it in a different way that might be easier for you to understand. For Huff to have a better year than Burnitz, he'd have to at least match last season's HR numbers, and continue to build on last season's RBI and R numbers. A semi-breakout. For Burnitz to have a better year, all he'd have to do is replicate what he's already done. Factor in the fact that he's a Rockie, and that boosts his chance of being better even more. Burnitz has a pure power stroke. He has a lot more power than Huff, and he's playing in CO. This isn't hard guys.

Now, you want to get as much value as you can for Huff. If most gms in your league won't bother looking at what is actually probable, then try to get more for him than Burnitz. Always max out your value. But know that, realistically, and applying logic, theres no reason to <i>think</i> Huff will have a better year than Burnitz (other than in batting average). None.

Like I said, I'm not a Burnitz owner. I'm also not a Huff owner. The player likely to have a better fantasy season is JB. Without a doubt. Make sure you factor in positions into your decision too, while Burnitz is clearly the better UTIL guy, if you need 3b and 1b, Huff might be worth holding on to.
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Postby KolbSaves » Wed May 05, 2004 12:01 pm

You just mentioned in your last sentance that you've forgotten position scarcity in your decision. An average 30-40 points higher is nothing to sneeze at either, it makes a BIG difference.
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Postby lifeform » Wed May 05, 2004 12:05 pm

Excellent points, Bronson -- you have me thinking.

If you'll indulge me, how exactly do you think A-Huff & Burnitz finish this year?

My best guesses:

Burnitz: 85 R, 37 HR, 90 RBI, .270 AVE
Huff: 80 R, 30 HR, 90 RBI, .285 AVE

The thing that makes it tricky is that I think it would be difficult to be any more optimistic with the Burnitz numbers, while I could very well be lowballing the Huff numbers. It wouldn't totally shock me if Huff finished with something closer to 95 R, 35 HR, 105 RBI, .305 AVE.

Any additional thoughts.

Thanks again for your imput, Bronson.
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Postby BronsonPinchot » Wed May 05, 2004 12:05 pm

Yup, if you need a 3b who hits for a high average obviously go with Huff.
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