Sorry about the long post, but this is something I've been thinking about for the past week and this looks like the perfect spot to see what others think on my take of the situation.
If you're referring to Castillos SBs so far it's not coming as a big shock to me. This year just further confirms that the days of Castillo getting 40+ stolen bases is long gone. Not that Castillo is no longer a threat on the basepaths. I thought his role became redefined last year when the Marlins added Pierre and Castillo moved down to the 2 spot. Pierre gets the green light when Castillo is at the plate because Castillo isn't a big run producer, while Castillo is now batting in front of the red hot Miguel Cabrera. With the way Cabrera is hitting you can't blame a manager for not giving him the green light to take a bag more often. Why run yourself out of an inning when you got a guy like Cabrera, plus if Cabrera won't get it done you got Lowell right behind him and so far at the beginning of the year add Choi to the mix.
The thing that did shock me so far is Pierre's SB total thus far compared to other big base stealers he should be able to equal. The same thing could be what is hurting Pierre's stolen base total as Castillo though. Last year Pierre had 65 SBs, this year he only has 7 (that's a pace to only get 45). While Castillo's current total projects out to 25. Not bad, but a far cry from years past. The Marlins this year haven't needed to manufacture runs that much. As long as they continue to win the way they have been playing I wouldn't expect much to change. I suppose it could also be that Castillos hip is still bothering him. But, that doesn't explain Pierre's dropoff in SBs.
On draft day I took some stock out of Castillo because of his stolen base totals when Pierre came over. But not only are Castillos SBs off pace from years past, so are Pierre's while he's boasting a OBP way over his career avg of .416. If this trend continues then both Pierre and Castillo stand to lose 20 attempts at swiping a bag.
I drafted Pierre figuring that he would own steals for me and wondered what was up with guys like pods and roberts doubling him up in SBs. I don't know if this is a definative answer to Castillo, but I strongly feel it's a big part of a little change in the way Florida is playing there games which will effect the stats for both Castillo and Pierre in a pretty big way. I don't blame Pierre or Castillo for their dropoffs that they've experienced so far. I blame the more potent Marlin offense behind them.
Castillos bat should heat up and he'll probably still be able to get his avg back up to .300, score 100 runs, and even drive in 60+ with the way the marlins are playing. But as long as the sluggers keep producing I would expect at the most 30 SBs from Castillo.
When the Marlins changed managers last year, steal attempts dropped off for everybody on the team (see Derek Lee, who had 10 of his 21 steals in April). The overall team numbers were still high, though, so the trend was kind of ignored going into draft day this year. At the start of the year I would have said that 45 steals for Pierre and 20 for Castillo were good predictions.
They're still a fast club, so they have to use that. But McKeon isn't going to run wild, especially with the sluggers hitting the way they are. Don't expect the pace to pick up too much.
EK711, i think you are dead on, 100% right...wish i'd seen that coming when i drafted pierre...never been a big fan of the speed guys with no power, but i also always lack in steals...so, i gave in and took what i thought would be the #1 speed guy. damn.