I spend countless hours on end doing research, crunching #'s...breaking down split stats, and reading various message boards, trying to field the most competitive team. But how far does that get you? is this game really a skilled based game? or is the better % of your success just a matter of luck?
a good way to judge this is...how many people win there league on a regular basis? is there team if not #1 always competing for the top spot? or is it different guys winning every season? or does some random guy just come in...draft his team using the obsurd yahoo rankings, only making slight changes due to injuries...and pretty much leaving his same team intact throughout the season......have as fair a shot to win, as the guy who sits in a dark basement crunching #'s all night? im sure the # cruncher will have the advantage, but by how much??
what is the talent disparity like? say a guy like me who spends 30hrs of fantasy research a week....how much does that research give me an advantage over my opposition (does my odds for winning go in my favor dramatically..because im an addict who sleeps/eats/drinks fantasy baseball...or is it just slightly in my favor to win, since i have a better overral heads up on whats going on in the league..?
im sure you guys get what im trying to ask, even tho i do a shitty job at asking it.
i'd like some input from all the different members, newbies/vets....with there opinion on this.
a good example is: last year i joined a fantasy basketball league, i used the ESPN ratings on the draft software without any research, by drafting the guy with the highest rating when it got to me. I wasn't much of a basketball fan in general, so i didn't care to spend the time researching....but i finished 2nd in my "expert" league. these guys all had like 150+ games on there ESPN fantasy resume's...with a list of various basketball leagues they've won in the past. but i was still able to finish in 2nd .. with very limited activity on my part.
it definetly matters in every league i've ever been in. its the same group of friends who im competing with for the title every year, and the same group of people who are in the basement. i don't think its so much about researching endless stats, instead more about strategy and understanding what needs to be done to maximize your chances at winning
Well lets put it this way.I built a team thru draft and trade that included Vlad Bonds Delgado Jeter Unit Schilling Gagne Vazquez Zito
in a Cbs H2H league
The guy who won it all drafted and never made one roster move or lineup change all season except to drop Vernon Wells and pickup Alou!He used the same lineup every week and dropped his best player.So as far as I can tell its alot of luck.
I have only been playing for just under a year, but I think of all the fantasy sports fantasy baseball has the least to do with luck and the most to do with skill and being active. There is luck involved, but not nearly as much as in the other sports. There are too many variables, especially in head-to-head leagues where strategy on a daily basis, especially the last day of the week is critical. Every week in my leagues teams lose categories because of bad strategy, like not benching their hitters when they have all the offensive cats locked up and end up losing BA because of it, or ERA and WHIP because they started a pitcher after they'd had them won. Good or bad strategy in just how you manage your matchups (not trading or drafting) makes a huge difference in H2H leagues.
What I think makes me a better fantasy player is that I am heavily active in trying to make my team better and win my H2H matchups on a daily basis. I make sure to look at the pitchers and teams my hitters are facing, and vice versa with my pitchers, and I spot start with my hitters and pitchers a lot. Last year this led me to the championship and a 12-1-1 record, and the one loss was 7-6 my first week as a player before I started using this strategy.
i know if football its DUMB luck, but that last guy has a point about baseball especially the strategy involed in winning the different categories in H2H leagues... there is still alot of luck involved, but i think you can maximise your opportunites to capitalize on luck more in baseball
It's basically all about skill. My primary league is a 15 teamer non-keeper and the majority of the league has been around for the enitre five year life of the league. Same guys contend every year, same group finishes in the middle, same guys are bringing up the rear. Keys are late rounds of the draft, and knowing how to build and maintain a balanced team. And most importantly, not getting worked up about a player who goes wild for two weeks or vice versa.
I think its a combination of 3 things, Skill - Luck - Staying Healthy.
I spend countless hours doing research too, it does help, W e have a group of 14 kids who play all 4 sports & I am the only one to Never missed the playoofs, I won 4 division titles & 2 championships. out of a total of 10 leageues so far, between all4 sports.
Alot is staying Healthy, Last year I won the pennant by 40 games but Lost Mulder, Schilling & Lowell for the playoofs & could not recover, Health is huge. So i guess u can tie health into luck also.
but luck is also big. As if in every aspect of life, always nice to have lady luck on your side. Last year we had a team who put up great #'s every week but the team he played always had career weeks. happens, some of u might say thats why you dont like H2H but we love it & I love it. much more fun & realsitic. Playoffs are absoultuely too intense.