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For everyone out there holding on to Nomar.....

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Postby Transmogrifier » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:01 pm

KULCAT wrote:
The contract situation "might" motivate him? But what about the other couple hundred in the same situation. Might it motivate them? The point is, considering all the players in the final year of the contract, many of them will do very well this year. Saying that the cause of that is the contract situation is a logical fallacy
.

Oh yeah i forget about those couple of hundreds SS looking for a 12-14 million dollar long term contract and that were ones one of the elite players in the game yet were being shopped around by their team to get a player that basically lobbied to steal their job and makes 3 times than all of them. This is were your logiv fails big time. Its not the same is it?

My point was not that Sparky Anderson is ill-equipped to speak about baseball, but just because he knows a lot about baseball doesn't mean he's right.


No it doesnt, maybe his wrong. But you put up his word against the one of some faceless poster who i dont know anything about well its not really a tough decision for me.
For example, Joe Morgan, an avowed baseball expert, stated repeatedly that Billy Beane wrote Moneyball.

The facts refuting Anderson's comments are clear an undeniable.


says who? Listen im getting pretty sicked of watching how people here talk about baseball players as video games players or robots. You people have absolutely no respect for the mental aspect of baseball. That just shows me that after years of playing fantasy baseball you dont know much about the game but you do know a lot about stats. Ive been playing fantasy baseball for 6 years and ive gotten to know a lot about OBP´s and OPS and Bpi´s etc. But what i know about baseball i learned by playing semi pro bowl in panama and venezuela. Some comments you have made like the 2º inning is worth the same as the 9º inning would get you laughed at in a dogout. thats just not the way baseball is played. When you played baseball you look for anything to motivate you. Usually fighting for you job does that. The way you talk about it is like there are no such things as intimidation by a pitcher. Or that when you are on a streak your not thinking about you splits vs right handed hitters, youre thinking you own anyone outthere. There are a million thing people like you cant explain in baseball. Why did the angels won the world series? Make an statistical analysis of that team and tell me why didnt the Yanks beat them? Why does a team that wins 118 games does not win the world series?

Same thing with clutch argument. i mean, you gonna tell me a ball player is not think about how big the 9º inning of a game is just because you say the early innings are played exactly the same way. Crank up all the numbers that you want pal, thats just not true.[/quote]

First off, please keep this civil.

Second, you are impossible to argue with. You don't believe in numbers. If I show you that X number of players are in the contract year, and show you five that excelled, you think that's proof. You don't believe numbers. If I show you that X player bats .300 over his career and then bats .300 in the playoffs, yet that person gets one key hit, you remember that key hit and call him clutch. Derek Jeter is the prime example, a player who has played below his standards in the playoffs, yet is regularly refered to as clutch.

But I've argued this many many times here.
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Postby Nomar4prez » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:10 pm

I don't think its about playing good b/c it s a contract year, I think it's about playing too one's potential. There IS pressure to do good in a contract year, and some people can't handle it. I don't think Nomar will play "harder" this year, or put up better than normal numbers, but I think he can handle the pressure and that he will put numbers that he would otherwise.
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Postby contra » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:13 pm

this is one of the greatest threads in here

i did a research paper a year or two ago about freeagents who sign for large contracts... and if they perform better or worse for their new team... but if you take any set of data large enough you will find trends that contradict eachother
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:16 pm

contra wrote:this is one of the greatest threads in here

i did a research paper a year or two ago about freeagents who sign for large contracts... and if they perform better or worse for their new team... but if you take any set of data large enough you will find trends that contradict eachother


I agree and every study I have seen that supposedly proves it one way or the other spins the data. This argument will never go away. :-)
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Postby osb » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:18 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:
First off, please keep this civil.

Second, you are impossible to argue with. You don't believe in numbers. If I show you that X number of players are in the contract year, and show you five that excelled, you think that's proof. You don't believe numbers. If I show you that X player bats .300 over his career and then bats .300 in the playoffs, yet that person gets one key hit, you remember that key hit and call him clutch. Derek Jeter is the prime example, a player who has played below his standards in the playoffs, yet is regularly refered to as clutch.

But I've argued this many many times here.


personally, i didn't think anyone was getting to be less than civil.... secondly, if you are going to say that kulcat doesn't believe in numbers, he or anyone else can say that you all don't believe in the human element of the game... i think that is what he was trying to get at and i think it's kind of absurd that no one in here is even willing to accept the fact that sometimes players are motivated by different things... take a look at adrian beltre so far this season... he was slated to start the season hitting third in the dodgers lineup, they go out and get milton bradley and beltre was super-pissed because he lost his #3 spot for the #7 spot... he goes out and goes on a tear... this has ALWAYS been said about beltre, he plays better when he's pissed about something... it's the same thing when you all look at home vs road splits... why do players play better on the road or in certain parks vs others? do you know? is there a number that can tell us why? no, but people take them seriously don't they? like i said before, players are motivated by different things... i think it's strange that anyone would simply out-of-hand disregard the contract year hypothesis regarding stud players...
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Postby KULCAT » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:21 pm

First off, please keep this civil.

Was i uncivil? I didnt think i was. I apologyse

Second, you are impossible to argue with. You don't believe in numbers.


I do believe in numbers, i just dont think they set things in stone like you do.
[quote] If I show you that X number of players are in the contract year, and show you five that excelled, you think that's proof. You don't believe numbers. If I show you that X player bats .300 over his career and then bats .300 in the playoffs, yet that person gets one key hit, you remember that key hit and call him clutch. Derek Jeter is the prime example, a player who has played below his standards in the playoffs, yet is regularly refered to as clutch.


No, no, no dont get mixed up with does guys. Thats just an way to extreme of an example for me. If you show X numbers of players and 30% excell tha doesnt mean if we take the same players and put them in the same situation next year 30% will excell again. Ive made my position clear in this whole cluch player argument. There are clutch situations. The 9º inning is more important tha the 2º and didnt go into MLB.com and did an study or wrote an essay about it. I just remember how the atmosphere in the bullpen and dug out changed in the lat innings of a tight games and how some players approach this thight situations and just like in real life some guys did better in tight situations than others. That to me settles it. The way you talk about numbers is like there is nothing else than that. You dont believe there is nothing else than numbers and you cant explain everything with numbers. There´s gotta be a midway point here. It cant be that extreme
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Postby Transmogrifier » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:32 pm

OK, let me back up an explain something.

Do I think that some players can be influenced by their upcoming contract and play harder and put up better numbers? Yes.

My point is that, on the whole, the idea that players play better in a contract year is a myth.

I'm going to drop the clutch argument because I've argued it a 100 times here.

My argument about stats is that you are taking indvidual, subjective evidence and spreading it out to all players. Like your anecdote about it being more tense in the ninth inning.
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Postby KULCAT » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:39 pm

My argument about stats is that you are taking indvidual, subjective evidence and spreading it out to all players. Like your anecdote about it being more tense in the ninth inning.
[/quote]

Yeah im sure there are other places in the world where people get tense in the third inning
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Postby Transmogrifier » Thu Apr 29, 2004 1:48 pm

KULCAT wrote:
My argument about stats is that you are taking indvidual, subjective evidence and spreading it out to all players. Like your anecdote about it being more tense in the ninth inning.


Yeah im sure there are other places in the world where people get tense in the third inning[/quote]

The question is not whether it is tense, but whether it effects play.

And my point was not to refute your statement, but to say that just because that's the way you felt doesn't mean that's the way it is.
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Postby KULCAT » Thu Apr 29, 2004 2:02 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:
KULCAT wrote:
My argument about stats is that you are taking indvidual, subjective evidence and spreading it out to all players. Like your anecdote about it being more tense in the ninth inning.


Yeah im sure there are other places in the world where people get tense in the third inning


The question is not whether it is tense, but whether it effects play.


I think a tense situation always affect someones perfomance in baseball or un any activity. Some people deal with it better than others.


And my point was not to refute your statement, but to say that just because that's the way you felt doesn't mean that's the way it is
.[/quote]
Its not the way i felt, i saw it while playing baseball. And thats not to say just cause i played it in high levels i know more than anyone here(maybe you know more about it than me), but i when it comes to this kind of arguments id rather have a baseball player´s advice than someone who remembers stats better than him. Its just more practical
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