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For everyone out there holding on to Nomar.....

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Postby KULCAT » Thu Apr 29, 2004 4:07 am

I may be going out on a limb here, but I think Nomar will put up good numbers because he is a good player who has put up good numbers in the past and will be hitting in a good lineup.[/quote
]

Nomar´s game has been in decline the past few year as he´s not the next .400 guy people tought he´d be. He one of the best SS in the MLB and all im saying is that a little motivation might help improve those already good numbers


It's been demonstrated time and again that the "contract year effect" does not exist


I dont think this can be demonstrated. I never said contract years bring up better numbers, im saying it brings up more motivation. You gonna tell me Miguel tejada was bored last season when he started like 0 for the century? Im pretty sure he was motivated and that sometimes can work against you. Its pressure thats all. I dont need numbers to tell me youre more motivated when youre playing for a contract or for spot in the playoffs than in 2º year of your fat contract or for a team that was out of it by July.
And by the way, ill take the quote over your facts anytime cause they were uttered by a coach who won 2 world series and knows much more about baseball that any of us ever will, so a little more respect for Sparky, ok?
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Apr 29, 2004 7:08 am

trying to prove contract years exist is like trying to prove clutch hitting, its not possible because it depends on the skill level and luck of the player.
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Postby timely » Thu Apr 29, 2004 7:15 am

Regardless of the truth/myth about contract years, what is true is that some players in the middle of a contract get complacent and do not put forth 100% effort all the time. So at least with players on a contract year, you can expect that they are less likely to be lazy than if it were an ordinary year.
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Postby DEF » Thu Apr 29, 2004 7:19 am

KULCAT wrote:
I may be going out on a limb here, but I think Nomar will put up good numbers because he is a good player who has put up good numbers in the past and will be hitting in a good lineup.[/quote
]

Nomar´s game has been in decline the past few year as he´s not the next .400 guy people tought he´d be. He one of the best SS in the MLB and all im saying is that a little motivation might help improve those already good numbers


It's been demonstrated time and again that the "contract year effect" does not exist


I dont think this can be demonstrated. I never said contract years bring up better numbers, im saying it brings up more motivation. You gonna tell me Miguel tejada was bored last season when he started like 0 for the century? Im pretty sure he was motivated and that sometimes can work against you. Its pressure thats all. I dont need numbers to tell me youre more motivated when youre playing for a contract or for spot in the playoffs than in 2º year of your fat contract or for a team that was out of it by July.
And by the way, ill take the quote over your facts anytime cause they were uttered by a coach who won 2 world series and knows much more about baseball that any of us ever will, so a little more respect for Sparky, ok?


When Sparky wins a couple of money roto leagues, then I'll worry about what he has to say, OK?

There's a big difference between real baseball and fantasy baseball, and skill or knowledge in one doesn't necessarily translate to the other.

And I guess none of Sparky's 25 guys on contract years will be guys like Tejada who struggle "under the pressure" of a contract year? He must really be a genius to know how to pick exactly the right guys who will react positively to the extra "pressure".

Actually, I guess I didn't need to bother posting at all, you already refuted your own argument for us. Thanks.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Apr 29, 2004 7:50 am

KULCAT wrote:Nomar´s game has been in decline the past few year


I disagree.

If your point is that he is not as good as he was in 1999 - that is obvious since he was the best player (probably just top 3) in the game in 1999.

Coming back from injury in 2001 Nomar has been very consistent. All of his numbers have plateaued except that he has lost 15 RBI but he has added 20 Runs and started stealing bases. From a fantasy perspective he has increased in value.

There is no reason to suspect any natural decline in his game.
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Postby KULCAT » Thu Apr 29, 2004 8:07 am

When Sparky wins a couple of money roto leagues, then I'll worry about what he has to say, OK?


Are you serious? Dude, Sparky played and managed the real thing. Anything we have to say about baseball players and how they behave is pretty much meaningless when it is put up against the opinion of a man that managed baseball players for 25 years or so.

There's a big difference between real baseball and fantasy baseball, and skill or knowledge in one doesn't necessarily translate to the other.



True, however motivation can translate into better numbers and thats usually translate into better fantasy numbers.

And I guess none of Sparky's 25 guys on contract years will be guys like Tejada who struggle "under the pressure" of a contract year? He must really be a genius to know how to pick exactly the right guys who will react positively to the extra "pressure".


You are totally missing the point. What he meant was obvious. If you have 25 who are not complacent and less likely to fall pray to laziness then you have a better shot at winning.

Actually, I guess I didn't need to bother posting at all, you already refuted your own argument for us. Thanks.[/quote
]

No i didnt. But i guess youre one of those guys that can easily deceive themselves.
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Postby KULCAT » Thu Apr 29, 2004 8:20 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
KULCAT wrote:Nomar´s game has been in decline the past few year


I disagree.

If your point is that he is not as good as he was in 1999 - that is obvious since he was the best player (probably just top 3) in the game in 1999.



This is exactly what i meant, ever since his wrist injury he hasn been the same.

Coming back from injury in 2001 Nomar has been very consistent. All of his numbers have plateaued except that he has lost 15 RBI but he has added 20 Runs and started stealing bases. From a fantasy perspective he has increased in value.

There is no reason to suspect any natural decline in his game.


I completely dissagree here. If you look at 2000(his last year fully healthy) most averages are down from he´s career marks. For example he´s a .323 career hitter yet has gone to .310 and .301 the last 2 years. Same thing with OBP, Slugging and OPS. OBP he hasnt even gotten close to .400 standing still at a very average .345-.352. I also expect an elite hitter to be over .900 in OPS and he hasnt done that the past 2 years. What kills me the most is that this guy use to have a great bb/k ratio and the last 2 years he´s lost that. I blame it all on the injury. Maybe he´s still could regain it. He´s my favorite player and i wish he played for the Braves. :-]
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Postby InfinityJones » Thu Apr 29, 2004 8:59 am

I think we're all assuming that when he gets off of the DL this achilles injury will be 100% completely gone. These injuries tend to linger, and many times when people come back from a "strain" they end up rupturing the tendon which is typically a career ender (at least in football and basketball). I know the Red Sox have been extra careful with him, and he may go on to have a great rest of the year. But to automatically think its going to be business as usual just because he's off the DL, I think, is a little naive.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Apr 29, 2004 9:32 am

KULCAT wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Coming back from injury in 2001 Nomar has been very consistent. All of his numbers have plateaued except that he has lost 15 RBI but he has added 20 Runs and started stealing bases. From a fantasy perspective he has increased in value.

There is no reason to suspect any natural decline in his game.


I completely dissagree here. If you look at 2000(his last year fully healthy) most averages are down from he´s career marks. For example he´s a .323 career hitter yet has gone to .310 and .301 the last 2 years. Same thing with OBP, Slugging and OPS. OBP he hasnt even gotten close to .400 standing still at a very average .345-.352.



I will repeat my point that Nomar has not declined the past two years and you cannot say as you did that "Nomar´s game has been in decline the past few year" 2000 was 4 years ago and I already stated that he is not the same player that he was before the injury.


2002 2003

BA .310 .301
OBP .352 .345
SLG .528 .524
Runs 101 120
RBI 120 105
SB 5 19
HR 24 28


In a 5x5 league his value went up in 2003. In a 4x4 league it stayed pretty much the same as it did in a points league (depending on the scoring system that you use).

Infinity is right that you cannot determine his value until we see how he comes back from this injury.

Your error KULCAT is that you cannot simply assume that he will decline because there is nothing in his history to suggest this.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Apr 29, 2004 9:35 am

KULCAT wrote:If you look at 2000(his last year fully healthy)


Where does this come from?

2002 he had 635 AB - which was 7th in MLB
in 2003 he had 658 AB - which was 5th in MLB
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