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Give up on Contreras????

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Postby Jose Contreras is 72 » Tue Apr 27, 2004 5:45 pm

Erboes wrote:Although I love to talk a walk in the land of emotion from time to time, I have to resist doing so now.


Not even entirely sure what that psuedo-intellectual babble is supposed to mean.


Erboes wrote:Contraras's ERA against Boston: 18.00

Contraras's WHIP against Boston: 3.10

Contrasas's ERA against everyone else: 3.20

Contraras's WHIP against everyone else:1.07


I encourage you to look up the box scores for, well, all of those non-Boston appearances, then report back to me when you find one solid one against a team anyone considers a major offensive threat that wasn't just playing out the season, a team that wasn't injury riddled, or a team that was not historically bad.

The facts those statistics will "bear out" will in fact prove.........

Contreras against teams that will ever amount to anything = atrocious

Contreras against the beaten down, mediocre and terrible = well above average

Erboes wrote:There are two facts here. One, you're not dealing in facts. Two, he's only pitched 82 innings total in the majors, and making any conclusions from it is a bit premature.


There are actually three facts here - you're overlooking the FACT that Contreras has yet to look anything more than mediocre, the fact that his numbers are, in fact, somewhat inflated by the mop-up work he did last year (and his starts against terrible teams), the FACT that every major sports network has thoroughly documented how he tips his pitches to the point where I can call them while half drunk in a bar, and the FACT that you've ignored intangibles when digging up statistical information to try and back your doomed case.

Actually, there's a 4th fact. He qualifies for AARP benefits due to his advanced age.

Erboes wrote: The guy is a K an inning starting pitcher, and that should be enough to hold onto him at least a bit longer. Even if he can only pitch against weak hitters (the facts don't bare that out by the way) then only start him against weak hitting teams, but for the love that is all good in this game, don't cut him.


The guy has racked up a K an inning - against the likes of Detroit, Cincy, Toronto, etc. and out of the pen in games that were decided well before he entered them and/or where starting positional players had been replaced. Many also came after September 1st, meaning he faced a ton of batters with little or no big league experience. Calling him a "K an inning starting pitcher" is as premature as it is incorrect.

Contreras might be the most overrated AND overaged "prospect" in recent memory.
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Postby Great Scott(i)! » Tue Apr 27, 2004 6:09 pm

Facts!

2003 (ERA):

Boston - 24.92
Jays - 3.94
Reds - 2.57
DRays - 1.80
Tigers - 1.54
O's - 0.00
ChiSox - 0.00

ERA: 3.30 - Not bad, if those numbers above were all starts. But they weren't... and honestly? The Reds game they barely won. The Jays and Sox? You can't give them 4 or more. So his best starts/appearances were against the O's, who are far from the same team as last year, the ChiSox who he actually pitched well against, and the second losingest team in ML history and the personification of futility that the DRays are. Wow, solid.

Other:

RISP: 10.06
RISP w/ 2 out: 10.29
Bases Loaded: 37.80

Ooo it goes UP with 2 outs, dominate. Love it when the sacks are jacked... you can really count on him!

2004:

RSox- 12.74 (63 Pitches in 2.1 and 93 pitches in 3.1 IP)
WSox- 8.44 (105 Pitches in 5.1 IP)

ERA: 10.64

Other:

RISP: 10.80
RISP w/ 2 out: 20.77
Bases Loaded: 37.80

First Inning: 3.00
Second: 3.00
Third: 7.71
Fourth: 27.00
Fifth: 36.00

He's been nothing but crap. Save three or four good starts and some solid bullpen work.

Oh! And career wise:

18.85 against Boston.
2.61 against "everyone else"

A closing "fact": His low 82 IP in his career? Because sucks and can't last in games or maintain his starting job without pitching his way out of a rotation or hurting his 38 year old arm.

Facts, w00t. 8-o
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Postby Erboes » Tue Apr 27, 2004 7:23 pm

You New York dudes are almost bad as those from Boston.

Maybe I'm just not used to New Yorkers lack of patience, but the guy has had 12 starts total in his career and you guys are ready to tar and feather him. I do not understand this.

The facts are that he walks a batter ever 2.33 innings, not one an inning.

The facts are that 12 starts are not enough to go on, but of those he's had good ones against Toronto and Chicago, which are good hitting teams. The only other good hitting team he faced was Boston and, I'll give it to you, he's stunk against.

You are obviously one big Yankee fan and that is great, but I am not so I don't really care about the types of things you do. I care only about his numbers. You are speaking not with logic but emotion, and are obviously distraught that your $200 million team is stinking up the joint early on and was spanked by the Sox and I can understand that. I just don't give a damn about that crap. This is a fantasy baseball site and I think most of us would like to keep it that way.
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Postby Melo255 » Tue Apr 27, 2004 7:39 pm

Yes Conteras has sucked in his career against Boston-which only consisted of last year and 2 starts this year. However NOBODY did well against the Red Sox last year. They set Major League records in offensive categories left and right. The White Sox this year have been pounding the ball against everybody but Vazquez. Erboes is exactly right and I don't understand why your refuse to see this: JUST DONT START HIM AGAINST THE RED SOX! How he will fare this year against the rest of the league is unknown but you assume he will struggle. And to continously and repeatedly mention the fact that he has only pitched against the Jays, Reds, Tigers, Rays and O's doesn't mean anything except that he IS an effective pitcher to have if you just use your head and put him in at the right times.
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Postby Great Scott(i)! » Tue Apr 27, 2004 10:00 pm

It's 2.10, actually. You care about numbers so much, and yet yours are almost always rounded or inaccurate. I was referring to this year exclusively when I talked about his near walk an inning stats, (Read: 9BB/11IP). All you care about is numbers? Then by all means man... look at the post where I broke down the key stats by team, everyone sees 0.00 for the 2003 O's and thinks this guy has dominate stuff. He doesn't, he's got a bad shoulder and a old arm, a bad back and has looked nasty maybe once or twice, not more. There's very little emotion and pure fact and stat in my posts, don't try and make yourself look big because your arguement, though supported, is false and hide that by trying to make me out to be a crazed New Yorker. I'm not from New York, so that sorta throws that out the window.

You ask for numbers, I prodived you numbers past the bad outtings against the Sox that prove this man is bad. His ERA balloons as his pitch counts spiral out of control because of poor location. His arm strength and velocity are good, but his control is awful (Again, read: 9BB/11IP) he's only pitched 11 innings because he's never made it past 5.1 in 3 starts. The end of his year last year was mop up BS work, nothing more. He started the year as a starter and was awful, as he has this year. Jose Contreras is 72 is right, if anyone believes he would still be a starter if the Yankees had the ability to do anything with him, you're not on the more intelligent side of baseball. The guy is out of there the second the Yankees have a way. If past nothing else, he will not last the season pitching the way he does.

My next point, his outtings against the Red Sox. You really think it doesn't matter that he can't pitch to the Sox? That's all that matters in the Bronx folks. If he continues to lose games to the Sox, George will see his head on a pole. Juan Acevedo was cut simply because he coughed up that homer last year. The only reason they don't do it to Jose is because he cost so damn much, 8.5 million a year? Holy Hell, talk about the most overpaid guy in the league relative to what he's done. (ARod aside.) Give me a break guys, are you so short sided to believe that good outtings against shitty teams and the inability to pitch against anyone else is not a factor in this guy's skill level, and therefor, worth? If you don't hang onto him and his unreal ERA which should skyrocket out of control unless he pitches against the DRays and Tigers, who both... btw, are far better this year than last.

I'm willing to bet anyone on this board 20 bucks that he'll bomb out the rest of the year as a starter and do poorly. Anyone.
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Postby shortround_phat2008 » Tue Apr 27, 2004 11:35 pm

You half to give up on him everyone else is, Contreas is a nobody and that is all that he will ever be
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Postby Jose Contreras is 72 » Tue Apr 27, 2004 11:44 pm

Erboes wrote:You New York dudes are almost bad as those from Boston.

Maybe I'm just not used to New Yorkers lack of patience, but the guy has had 12 starts total in his career and you guys are ready to tar and feather him. I do not understand this.

You are obviously one big Yankee fan and that is great, but I am not so I don't really care about the types of things you do. I care only about his numbers. You are speaking not with logic but emotion, and are obviously distraught that your $200 million team is stinking up the joint early on and was spanked by the Sox and I can understand that. I just don't give a damn about that crap. This is a fantasy baseball site and I think most of us would like to keep it that way.


If this is directed at me, I can't tell you how absolutely hilarious I find it.

Born at the Carney Hospital in Lower Mills f'n Dorchester. Boston born and bred. I bleed crimson and blue. Open mouth, insert foot, it would seem.

As a baseball fan, I could only hope that the Yankees keep throwing the 72 year old pitch-tipper every fifth day, as that alone would very likely lock up the division title for us. As a fantasy baseball player, I can't encourage people enough to get rid of the guy now before it's too late.
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Postby pibb55 » Tue Apr 27, 2004 11:47 pm

Im giving him another start, At Home.... Against Oakland... sounds good to me
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Postby Great Scott(i)! » Wed May 05, 2004 2:14 pm

Bump.

Yup. ;-D
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Postby Yikes » Wed May 05, 2004 2:38 pm

Melo255 wrote:Yes Conteras has sucked in his career against Boston-which only consisted of last year and 2 starts this year. However NOBODY did well against the Red Sox last year. They set Major League records in offensive categories left and right. The White Sox this year have been pounding the ball against everybody but Vazquez. Erboes is exactly right and I don't understand why your refuse to see this: JUST DONT START HIM AGAINST THE RED SOX! How he will fare this year against the rest of the league is unknown but you assume he will struggle. And to continously and repeatedly mention the fact that he has only pitched against the Jays, Reds, Tigers, Rays and O's doesn't mean anything except that he IS an effective pitcher to have if you just use your head and put him in at the right times.


I agree with Melo255 and Erbos. Contreras has a shot at being extremely valuable later this season. Have a bit of patience. I've benched him my last two starts and will bench him probably for his next two starts. But I'm still giving him a roster spot.

There aren't that many pitchers with a 9+ K/9IP that pitches on a winning team. He was good last year after he started believing in his own stuff so I'll give him some time to put it together this season as well.

I read the Yankees article and it sounds like Posada and Torre has faith in Contreras' stuff and believe the problem is mental. If they are still willing to give Contreras another shot, I'm willing to as well
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