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Roto strategy...ride the hot hand or play the stud?

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Postby Spartans Rule » Tue Apr 20, 2004 4:35 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I know that its a different beast, but what would have happened if you noticed Giles was slumping a week ago and replaced him with a guys who was on fire a week ago - like Dye.

If you had replaced Giles one week ago with Dye, you would have 4 more runs, 5 more HRs, 8 more RBIs, and hit .253 higher.

That may be an extreme example, but completely real at the same time. Again, I have a hard time doing this, but there are those fantasy players that are really quite adept at jumping trends early, and they are hard to beat.


Sure, Giles was slumping, but so were guys like Berkman and Soriano that picked up their games. Same on the other end - if you had picked up Beltre instead of Dye the luck would not have continued.

I'm certainly not taking the article as gospel, its a flawed and incomplete study and more of a novelty than anything. But I do think we often read more in to hot and cold streaks than we should.

There are those out there who can jump the trends, but I'm sure it takes a lot of skill and runs deeper than one guy's hot and another's cold. And that gets back to my point - unless you've got that skill, you should lay off the trends and focus on proven performance.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Apr 20, 2004 4:41 pm

Spartans Rule wrote:There are those out there who can jump the trends, but I'm sure it takes a lot of skill and runs deeper than one guy's hot and another's cold. And that gets back to my point - unless you've got that skill, you should lay off the trends and focus on proven performance.


Well put. There are fantasy players that make a living on jumping trends, so it is a viable strategy, but you have to be very good at it for it to work. Most people dont have the experience in reading trends or the time it takes to dedicate their team to this style of play.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Apr 22, 2004 1:16 am

You can't play a rotating lineup and win. In the end, your studs will be there.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Thu Apr 22, 2004 2:21 am

You should check the splits a lot too because when your guy's slumping it's easier to sub him for another guy if you know he's horrible against whoever it may be.
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