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Roto strategy...ride the hot hand or play the stud?

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Roto strategy...ride the hot hand or play the stud?

Postby warrick95 » Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:03 pm

This is pretty much preference. What do y'all prefer to do, ride the hot guys, or just go with your bigtime studs (hitters, most of the time).

I don't mind playing the hot hand at times, but I mostly stick with my big guns. Yes, I'm currently starting Brian f'ing Giles right now, through his huge slump.

Anyway, I'm curious what y'all out there do. Especially the owners with slumping stars, like Giles, Delgado, A-Rod, etc. In H2H leagues, I know the hot hand is usually the hand to play. However, I don't really like missing out on ANY of my studs' stats in roto leagues.
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Re: Roto strategy...ride the hot hand or play the stud?

Postby bronxxbomber » Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:22 pm

warrick95 wrote:This is pretty much preference. What do y'all prefer to do, ride the hot guys, or just go with your bigtime studs (hitters, most of the time).

I don't mind playing the hot hand at times, but I mostly stick with my big guns. Yes, I'm currently starting Brian f'ing Giles right now, through his huge slump.

Anyway, I'm curious what y'all out there do. Especially the owners with slumping stars, like Giles, Delgado, A-Rod, etc. In H2H leagues, I know the hot hand is usually the hand to play. However, I don't really like missing out on ANY of my studs' stats in roto leagues.


Is it ok to assume that if you draft arod or delgado you don't have a backup? Maybe in Brian Giles' case you might have another person whom you can start in between. Otherwise unless you have really good backups with favorable matchups stick it out because these guys will suck for only so long.
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Postby Sevillano » Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:26 pm

Almost always play the stud. People that micromanage and always try to ride the hot hand always end up near the bottom of a roto league. On the other hand, keep an eye on the young hot hands, alot of them are future studs that are just starting to realize their potential.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:34 pm

Great question.

This is a personal preference question as has been previously noted.

I disagree with the guy who says playing the hot players is doomed to fail. While I am not usually one to yank a stud for a hot player, I do have friends who are very successful with that strategy. As a matter of fact, in my private league my biggest competitor plays this way almost exclusively - and he finishes in the top 3 every yr - Last yr he finished with nearly 100 waiver moves, while I had under 20. We finished 2nd and 3rd. I guess the point is, if you are good at jumping on trends early, the strategy of riding the hot players can work pretty well.

Personally, I have recently put in J. Jones into my starting lineup - if there ever was a definition of a streak hitter, he is the guy - and he may have just started his hot streak.
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Postby YUP » Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:44 pm

I disagree with ALWAYS playing your studs too.

I benched Delgado over a week ago in favor of Dunn and I'm glad I did. Delgado will remain on the bench until he shows some signs of life.
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Example

Postby Ry-Guy » Tue Apr 20, 2004 1:54 pm

I'll give you an example:

In my outfield, I drafted Brian Giles, Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns to start.

I have Jermaine Dye and Moises Alou on my bench.

About a little over a week ago, I decided to sit Giles and Kearns for Dye and Alou. My team has been on fire ever since.

As soon as Giles and Kearns get hot, I'll throw them back in.

Ride the hot hand but don't overdo it. Know when to get your studs back in there.
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Postby warrick95 » Tue Apr 20, 2004 2:01 pm

Well, I guess A-Rod isn't such a good example, since I doubt you'd draft another SS.

However, 1B and OF are probably the deepest positions, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if anybody had a backup for Delgado.

The guy who finished 1st in my roto league last year did very well riding young, hot hands. He moved then in and out (Berroa, Tex, etc.) and was able to win the league that way. However, he also had quite a few strong breakout and comeback guys (Tex, Berroa, K. Brown).

I've started Giles over Dye for the entire season. That's one of the reasons I started this thread...I was considering things. However, that's a moot point now, because C. Jones is out, so I have to play Dye anyway.
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Postby Spartans Rule » Tue Apr 20, 2004 2:14 pm

http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/economics/faculty/jpalmer/Eco182/Clutch/hot_and_cold_streaks.htm

This is an interesting statistical study that basically says that hot and cold streaks are nothing more than random chance. I'm not convinced that its definitive by any means, but there is a good point to take away. The point is that its impossible to predict when hot and cold streaks will stop and start and I think in the long run you're much better off playing studs over hot players.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Apr 20, 2004 2:35 pm

Spartans Rule wrote:http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/economics/faculty/jpalmer/Eco182/Clutch/hot_and_cold_streaks.htm

This is an interesting statistical study that basically says that hot and cold streaks are nothing more than random chance. I'm not convinced that its definitive by any means, but there is a good point to take away. The point is that its impossible to predict when hot and cold streaks will stop and start and I think in the long run you're much better off playing studs over hot players.


Sorry Farm College guy, but that article didnt prove anything to me. There were about as many holes in that study as a piece of swiss. Try and convince a currency trader that jumping trends doesnt work. Those guys pay huge sums of money for programs designed to read trends, and they do work more than they dont ( if they didnt, they wouldnt use them).

I know that its a different beast, but what would have happened if you noticed Giles was slumping a week ago and replaced him with a guys who was on fire a week ago - like Dye.

If you had replaced Giles one week ago with Dye, you would have 4 more runs, 5 more HRs, 8 more RBIs, and hit .253 higher.

That may be an extreme example, but completely real at the same time. Again, I have a hard time doing this, but there are those fantasy players that are really quite adept at jumping trends early, and they are hard to beat.
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Re: Example

Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Apr 20, 2004 2:46 pm

Ry-Guy wrote:I'll give you an example:

In my outfield, I drafted Brian Giles, Ken Griffey Jr. and Austin Kearns to start.

I have Jermaine Dye and Moises Alou on my bench.

About a little over a week ago, I decided to sit Giles and Kearns for Dye and Alou. My team has been on fire ever since.

As soon as Giles and Kearns get hot, I'll throw them back in.

Ride the hot hand but don't overdo it. Know when to get your studs back in there.


Giles is the only stud in that starting group. Griffey is a huge chance, and Kearns is a young, somewhat iffey player. Although Dye and Alou have not been studs the last couple of years, they have been in the past. Therefore, you did not technically "sit your studs and ride the hot hands." The "hot hands" you played are starters in my league, and they should be, even before their hot starts. Dye's spring was outstanding, and Alou is solid. You did not take that big of a chance.
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