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first year player, newbie question about strategy

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first year player, newbie question about strategy

Postby jjigglers » Sat Apr 17, 2004 4:34 pm

first year playing fantasy baseball, have just played football and basketball in the past. in basketball season, it was common to see teams dumping a certain category in a H2H format.

my question: is this viable in 5x5 or custom leagues?

i'm only in two leagues this year, and was wondering if it were at all possible to somehow draft/trade for all leadoff hitters and/or players who hit for average on the offensive side, and mainly closers on the pitching side.

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP : 6-4 in a 5x5 league.

R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP : 9-4 in my custom 7x6 league.

or, possibly a variant of these two, with just relievers in the bullpen to concentrate on better hitting, while consistently (hoping its consistent) winning the majority of pitching categories.

in short, is this viable? it seems like a challenging strategy to pull off, and for my casual league with friends, i might just try it.

oh, and if tied 5-5 in the 5x5 league, the first three playoff tiebreakers are ERA, AVG, and WHIP, so this might also help.

anyways, thanks for reading : please reply!
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Postby chaindog35 » Sat Apr 17, 2004 4:44 pm

The two strategies you spoke of really don't work in fantasy baseball, especially the pitching side. A more plausible strategy is to shoot for guys who hit for HR and RBIs and try to pick up hot people for improved avg. Overall, I would suggesting picking multi-tool players when selecting hitters. Milton Bradley is a good example. He can hit for power, scores runs and RBIs and steals a few bases too. Bobby Abreu is also a good example of this. getting all SB guys will lead to having guys with anemic avgs. There aren't a lot of guys out there who do all 3 well: avg, SB and runs.

In terms of pitching, you could draft all RP, but eventually they are going to give up some runs and that blows your ERA and WHIP for that week. A better strategy may be to forget saves and get the best starters you can so that you are sure to win Ks and Ws


Your custom league may be a different story, but I'm not familiar enough with those stats to be of much help
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Postby jjigglers » Sat Apr 17, 2004 4:51 pm

makes sense about one closer getting lit up to ruin a week's ERA, maybe ill refine the strategy to include a few dependable low ERA/WHIP pitchers.

as for the offensive side of things, i already had drafted pierre and crawford for cheap, making a trade like bagwell+?? could possibly net me someone like ichiro (who i think will heat up) and SBs could be locked up. past that, i could concentrate on guys that hit for average and get knocked in a lot.

this is all highly hypothetical, but it seems like it has a chance.

note: here's a list of possible offensive/pitching anchors that i have or would be relatively cheap if i dont pay for the slugging stats.
C: J. Kendall, M. Lieberthall
1B: A. Huff, R. Ibanez
2B: M. Young, L. Castillo
3B: B. Mueller, H. Blalock
SS: O. Cabrera, A. Berroa
OF: R. Baldelli, J. Payton, C. Crawford, S. Posednik, M. Bradley, etc.

SP: B. Webb, J. Santana, H. Nomo, L. Hernandez
RB: any RP, quantity > quality here.

the moral: getting top-quality numbers in only the categories i need, by paying mid-quality prices.
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Postby jdh » Sat Apr 17, 2004 5:06 pm

In h2h, the only categories that it makes sense to punt are SBs and saves. SBs because there are very few 5 tool hitters (Beltran, Abreu, etc), and those hitters are very expensive in drafts. Other than those players, the only players that will get you a good amount of steals are guys like Pierre, Roberts, Sanchez, Crawford, etc, and the speed only players hurt you in HRs, RBIs, and sometimes batting average in return for getting steals.

For pitching, punting saves can be a good strategy because closers are rare, there are very few dominant closers, and because of the messy overall closing situation in particular this year, they tend to cost more than they are worth in overall fantasy value. An all closer strategy won't work well, because while you should win ERA, WHIP and saves most week, you are punting Ks and wins, and punting more than one category leaves too little room for error.

I don't think even in h2h you can afford to dump more than one offensive or pitching category. If for example you decide to go with an all leadoff hitters/all closers strategy, you are starting off with a maximum of 6 categories you can normally win in a week, and if anything goes wrong with those 6 categories, you lose the week, leaving no room for error.
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Postby jjigglers » Sat Apr 17, 2004 5:08 pm

so, in essence, i take it baseball stats are more unpredictable (a la fantasy football) rather than consistent (a la basketball) ?
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Postby jdh » Sat Apr 17, 2004 5:18 pm

On a week to week basis, baseball performances are very inconsistent, even more so than fantasy football. Most hitters are not consistent, they tend to be hot-cold, hitting .100 one week, and .500 the next.

Pitchers' week to week performance is even more inconsistent. very few starters will give up 2-3 ER every start and never get lit. More common is 0 ER followed by 6 ER, etc.

On a season by season basis, baseball stats are much more predictable than pretty much any other sport, especially when it comes to hitters. However, on a week by week basis, all bets are off.
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