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Seeking opinions, your insight is appreciated, WHIR.

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Re: Seeking opinions, your insight is appreciated, WHIR.

Postby SuperDoodles » Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:06 pm

That's why I'm here. I wouldn't have considered Headley otherwise. What if I were to say he and Pablo are available on waivers? I was going to drop Pearce for Cuddyer but couldn't get over the age factor
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Re: Seeking opinions, your insight is appreciated, WHIR.

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:31 pm

Not crazy about Pablo...seems like he's been steadily dropping off since 2011, has only had 2 really good seasons out of 7, and came in to camp...well, less than svelte this year.

Headley's a guy that has some nice upside compared to where he's getting drafted. In a 10-team league he's fringe-rosterable unless he hits that upside but I'd have no problem dealing away Machado and getting a closer and then picking up Headley. The rub there is that you've got to let Machado play and look good for awhile as his value right now is likely to be much lower than it would be after he proves he's healthy. By that time Headley could have already played well enough to get picked up though. That said, there would be plenty of guys that could be targeted based on their perceived value based on avg leagues versus their actual value in your league. Headley and Carpenter were just the two best examples I could find.
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Re: Seeking opinions, your insight is appreciated, WHIR.

Postby SuperDoodles » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:57 pm

B-Chad wrote:I would re-add Cecil. I think he'd be a great addition to your roster. Otherwise, I like the mix. It's a solid team. And in a 10 teamer, you'll have chances to nab saves/closers throughout the season.


This is kind of a general thought of mine, being able to find closers, and why I am hesitant to trade for saves or have an extra closer taking up a bench spot. I suppose it's not much different than a handcuff position player, just always had an aversion to investing too much for what amounts to a single category (outside of the elite options, which I refuse to pay for). Granted, I typically put together a good pitching staff so the boost in stats from RP tends to be negligible most weeks. This all goes out the window if a closer has SP eligibility. That can be worth an 8-10th round pick. I used to like having an extra closer, maybe two, when we had P slots, but thought I was wasting a spot since we changed a few seasons ago.

If I'm wrong about anything I have no worries. I thought it would help to include how I reached my conclusion, and some of my general feelings. Could be as simple as I undervalue the position, I'm hearing a lot of closer upgrade
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Re: Seeking opinions, your insight is appreciated, WHIR.

Postby SuperDoodles » Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:47 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:Not crazy about Pablo...seems like he's been steadily dropping off since 2011, has only had 2 really good seasons out of 7, and came in to camp...well, less than svelte this year.

Headley's a guy that has some nice upside compared to where he's getting drafted. In a 10-team league he's fringe-rosterable unless he hits that upside but I'd have no problem dealing away Machado and getting a closer and then picking up Headley. The rub there is that you've got to let Machado play and look good for awhile as his value right now is likely to be much lower than it would be after he proves he's healthy. By that time Headley could have already played well enough to get picked up though. That said, there would be plenty of guys that could be targeted based on their perceived value based on avg leagues versus their actual value in your league. Headley and Carpenter were just the two best examples I could find.



I hope responding isn't something you were hoping against, though I'm a little slow to, especially when I haven't found the second page of posts yet. I have to admit, I'm a little apprehensive about taking an offensive hit, as I see it, of a potential keeper at one of the deepest positions, taking on a waiver-equivalent player, only for what amounts to a slight upgrade at the least desirable/valuable position and a little extra OBP, barring those unforseen circumstances. Sorry if that sounds negative, I break things into simple terms, which can sound crass, but is so much easier to determine where I went wrong. Of course, I would expect to get more, but there wouldn't be any meat left after filling my need.

I didn't want to be the one to say this but I think one of my problem areas is having three OF from the same team, hence the Cuddyer move. There seems to be no interest in Myers around the league and not sure I can get what I'd want for Upton or Kemp. That brings up the thought of a package deal, but then maybe that's a keeper and potential keeper for perhaps an elite closer and top OF?
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Re: Seeking opinions, your insight is appreciated, WHIR.

Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:12 am

That's the thing with your league format including OBP though...I'm not sure even the most optimistic projections would see Machado as a top-40 player at any point. I know he's young right now but his approach at the plate doesn't support high numbers of home runs nor a high OBP. The latter can get better over time but it rarely changes to any extreme measure. The former is exceedingly rare to change and have a line drive hitter suddenly start hitting large numbers of home runs. If everything breaks right Machado could probably see a .290/.350/25/80/85/8 but remember, that's not a projection but more of a ceiling. That would probably get your top-40 with the high average supporting the OBP some as well as a bit of plate discipline added in. I'd actually venture to say we'll see 1, maybe 2 seasons that have Machado making a run at the top-40 in your context.

Now, I'm not saying you deal him for whatever closer you can get either. I'd want someone that's elite or making a run at elite and that contributes to all your pitching categories, not just sv's. There's nothing wrong with packaging an outfielder with Machado for another better outfielder later in the season too. If Kemp looks really good he'd be a great candidate as I'm really worried about his long-term outlook with an arthritic hip. That doesn't go away or get better - you just manage the symptoms as the symptoms gradually get worse and learn how to work around them.
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Re: Seeking opinions, your insight is appreciated, WHIR.

Postby SuperDoodles » Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:21 pm

Thanks for expanding your thoughts, which, in turn, expands mine. I see where you're going. Him being a pick for keeper consideration I could do better. Funny you mention Kemp in this conversation as I kept him over Longo for the sole purpose of seeking Arenado or Machado. It was more hope with a backup plan than liking him as a top 40 player this year. Maybe he will be but the hope is to get a decent value in a trade. As for Machado I love the guy, and think he just has great baseball skills. If anyone can take that step towards extreme improvement in OBP he can, and I expect his body type to allow for a good improvement in power, provided he can stay healthy. Again, I see your points and will be open to taking the right deal now, but a guy can hope right?
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