It looks like the prevailing opinion is that Loazia may be in for a rough season...or at least a season not even close to last seasons numbers. Sooooo....would now be a good time to deal him away while he is still a valuable pitcher and his last seasons numbers are fresh in everyones minds?
I'm a believer still. He had a rough start, with a bad WHIP and his K's weren't what you'd expect. Being 2-0 doesn't mean much, but it's nice to see he's getting run support. Once he regains his control (meaning less walks, more K's, lower WHIP, less HR's, all essentailly leading to a lower ERA and more wins), I think he'll have around a 1.25 WHIP, 200+ K's, and 20 wins aren't out of the question. I was prediting a more modest number like 15-17, but with the way he's pitched so far and still managing to win both starts, I don't see 20 as improbable.
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal wrote:I'm a believer still. He had a rough start, with a bad WHIP and his K's weren't what you'd expect. Being 2-0 doesn't mean much, but it's nice to see he's getting run support. Once he regains his control (meaning less walks, more K's, lower WHIP, less HR's, all essentailly leading to a lower ERA and more wins), I think he'll have around a 1.25 WHIP, 200+ K's, and 20 wins aren't out of the question. I was prediting a more modest number like 15-17, but with the way he's pitched so far and still managing to win both starts, I don't see 20 as improbable.
So let me get this straight, you think it's a good sign that he won despite getting rocked today? Call me crazy, but if he keeps pitching poorly I would expect him to lose more often than win. If you are counting on 7-8 runs per game to get Loaiza his 20 wins that's stretching it. I wouldn't count on more than 15 wins, tops.
And for the record, the bad WHIP is just what I expect of him this season, as I expect him to revert back to his norm. ERA > 4.25; WHIP > 1.3. If I'm wrong, I'm happy to eat crow.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
ramble2 wrote:So let me get this straight, you think it's a good sign that he won despite getting rocked today?
Yes. It's a good sign that even when he doesn't pitch good, he'll have a shot at getting wins. But I think he'll be better than he showed today. His control was obviously off, and when that gets back on track, I think he'll lower his WHIP to around 1.25, and get around 8 K/9. ERA is a craps shoot, so it could be anywhere. WHIP is much more consistent and a good indicator of how good a pitcher is, along with K/9. I'll be happy if everybody writes him off after 2 starts. These are the people who traded Roy Halladay for Kevin Brown. 2 starts is too early to come to conclusions about anybody, but it's nice to see people are using it as evidence Loaiza will flop.
"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"
"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
ramble2 wrote:So let me get this straight, you think it's a good sign that he won despite getting rocked today?
Yes. It's a good sign that even when he doesn't pitch good, he'll have a shot at getting wins. But I think he'll be better than he showed today. His control was obviously off, and when that gets back on track, I think he'll lower his WHIP to around 1.25, and get around 8 K/9. ERA is a craps shoot, so it could be anywhere. WHIP is much more consistent and a good indicator of how good a pitcher is, along with K/9. I'll be happy if everybody writes him off after 2 starts. These are the people who traded Roy Halladay for Kevin Brown. 2 starts is too early to come to conclusions about anybody, but it's nice to see people are using it as evidence Loaiza will flop.
The evidence I'm using that he'll flop is his entire career. Last year was way off his norm. I think he reverts back to his usual self. Wins can be kind of a fluke stat (e.g., Russ Ortiz), but the White Sox better be able to put up a lot of runs every time he pitches if he wants to sniff 20 wins again.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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by Ry-Guy » Tue Apr 13, 2004 5:38 pm 
