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Am I in trouble?

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Am I in trouble?

Postby BigMusky12 » Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:06 pm

In my fantasy league, most of the other teams are starting around 7 different starters a week and only playing two maybe three closers. I have a team of four closers and only five starters. I have read that this is an effective strategy sometimes, but I thought it would be better hear some experience with it. I did not really plan on this, but kind of fell into it. I know that theoretically I should win Saves, Walks everyweek, but will lose Wins and K's too. The league is a daily roster change league.

Pitching Roster

Oswalt
Vazquez
Clement
Wells
Webb

Gagne
Dotel
Rhodes
Herges
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Postby Mighty Monks » Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:20 pm

it really depends, if you are in a roto league, I think you are in the much much better position, but in a h2h, you might want to trade one of your closers for another starter.
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Postby Mordraken » Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:27 pm

I wouldn't worry about it. You have solid starters that should rack up wins. Remember - if you have 5 guys that can win 15 games, that will be as many wins as 7 guys that put up 10 wins a piece. While you may not win the "wins" category, your high strikeout pitchers will keep you competitive in Ks and you should have a low ERA and WHIP. Also, with Dotel, Gagne and Rhodes, you should win saves as well.

I like your staff. Unless you have deadwood on your bench (i.e. someone who isn't playing) that you can drop for a decent pitcher, I wouldn't worry about it.

...and speaking of who to pick up - with your roster, you can take a gamble on a starter like Gobble or Ainsworth.
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Postby KolbSaves » Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:31 pm

try trading Rhodes for a solid starter

I doubt anyone has 7 10 win pitchers, they probably have at least three 15 win pitchers, the other teams are going to win most weeks in k's and wins if you don't acquire another starter.
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Postby BigMusky12 » Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:31 pm

It is a H2H league. I did win my pitching matchup this last week though against a guy who saw Holiday and Wood pitch twice. I am sure his big guns will pitch better in the rematch. I did not have Vazquez pitch for me either, traded for him with Morris.

Sould I trade for a guy who will get wins or a guy with lots of K's? Maybe a guy like Meyers off the WW would be good enough. Do I need as good as another 2nd, 3rd tier guy?
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Postby Guest » Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:37 pm

my bench does not have alot of dead wood on it.

Ensberg/Rameriez split 3B until I figure out which one I like better
Big Hurt/Crawford split Util depending on matchup and steal need
Griffey/Green split final outfield spot
and then I have Nomar on the DL with K Matsui subbing in.

I am sure I will drop Griffey once he gets hurt, but I hate to drop him now while he is healthy and batting well.
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Postby Mordraken » Mon Apr 12, 2004 3:57 pm

KolbSaves wrote:I doubt anyone has 7 10 win pitchers, they probably have at least three 15 win pitchers, the other teams are going to win most weeks in k's and wins if you don't acquire another starter.


I disagree with that. 15+ win starters are much more rare than you'd think.

Looking at last year's stats, there were only 26 pitchers with 15 wins or more. Given a standard 12 team league, the average team would have about 2 15 win pitchers. Now, if one team is very strong (I'd see 3 15-win pitchers on BigMusky12's roster and the other two being in the 10-15 win range) that will decrease the number of solid pitchers available on other teams.

Some other stats to look at:
Average # of wins for pitchers who pitched >150 innings = 12.6
Average # of wins for starting pitchers ranked in the top 84 by Yahoo (why 84? becase 84/12 = 7 starters per team) = 12.9
# of pitchers in top 84 with > 15 wins = 24
# of pitchers in top 84 with 11-15 wins = 37
# of pitchers in top 84 with 10 or less wins = 23

It is very unlikely that the average team will have more than 3 pitchers expecting to win 15 games. In fact, most teams will have one or two that will win 15+, 2 or 3 that will win 10-15 and maybe 2 that will win less than 10.

I'd also recommend against trading Rhodes. Having 4 solid closers and good quality starters gives you solid WHIP, ERA and Saves. That's 3 of the 5 categories. Dotel & Gagne can strike out as many batters as most starters (they averaged over 100Ks last year) and all of Oswalt, Webb, Clement and Vasquez can get up to 200 Ks. Again, looking at the average starter in the top 84, you get 141 strikeouts in a year. An average 7-man starting rotation would get about 1000 strikeouts in a fantasy season, plus another 200 from relievers. I think the starting rotation he has is capable of about 950 and the relievers another 350 which is right about on league average. AND with a lower ERA and WHIP. AND with more Saves than most teams. That's 4 of the five categories.

Like I said, the only thing I'd do is take a flyer on a prospect. You don't even have to start him unless you're in need. If he turns out good (for example, like a Brandon Webb last year) you're set. If not, leave him on your bench, trade him or drop him - nothing lost.

My advice - Don't water down your strength - use it. If you trade Rhodes, you lose 20-30 saves and a good WHIP & ERA and pick up what? Maybe a 13 win pitcher and 100 Ks on the year (assuming Rhodes gets 60) at the cost of a lower ERA and WHIP... that's a trade of gaining in 2 categories (Wins and Ks) at the cost of 3 (saves, ERA, WHIP).
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Postby KolbSaves » Mon Apr 12, 2004 4:43 pm

good post, I don't think he'll be surrendering Saves, WHIP, and ERA for W exactly, I think he could win all 4 with a trade, but good post
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Postby BigMusky12 » Mon Apr 12, 2004 4:59 pm

the kicker that I forgot to tell you about....we have CG as a scoring catagory. I am not going to chase that though seeing as it is mainly luck.
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Postby BigMusky12 » Mon Apr 12, 2004 5:00 pm

thanks for the detailed analysis though, I think I can use that to set my team up very well.
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