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Poll: Adam Dunn's current "breakout"...is it for real?

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Is Dunn breaking out or just hot?

breaking out: he'll hit 30+ HRs with a .275+ avg.
32
62%
just hot: he'll hit 20 something HRs with a .230 avg.
20
38%
 
Total votes : 52

Postby planet » Mon Apr 12, 2004 4:27 pm

if they bat him higher in the lineup he could get 50+ HRs
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Postby coolarmadillo » Mon Apr 12, 2004 4:29 pm

i'd like to think he'll hit 40+ HRs and something better than .250 or .260, but i just wanted to be sure this wasn't wishful thinking as i'm considering trading klesko and koch for him. any thoughts on such a deal? roster below:

12-team league
24 man rosters
5x5 + holds and slugging

Roster:
C: V. Martinez
1B: M. Sweeney
2B: A. Kennedy (J. Reyes when eligible and healthy)
3B: A. Ramirez
SS: A. Rodriguez
OF: M. Ordonez
OF: B. Abreu
OF: S. Green
Util: R. Klesko (J. Reyes at times if healthy until eligible at 2B)
Bench: A. Sanchez
Bench: P. Konerko
DL: J. Reyes

SP: T. Hudson
SP: J. Santana
RP: T. Hoffman
RP: A. Benitez
P: R. Soriano
P: D. Kolb
P: C. Bradford
Bench: B. Koch
Bench: V. Padilla
Bench: O. Perez
Bench: A. Eaton
Bench: R. Vogelsong
Bench: J. Affeldt
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Postby Bedard » Mon Apr 12, 2004 4:31 pm

Great deal, Klesko and Koch are both really lame... Do the trade unless you really need a fat first baseman or a really bad closer.
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Postby Area51's » Mon Apr 12, 2004 4:36 pm

Dunn will still have a tough time on these boards, but he could pay off big for some teams. He won't be on mine though....I'm a gambling man...but Burrell is a lot safer bounceback pick than Dunn.

Hope you all ride him while he's hot! ;-D
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Mon Apr 12, 2004 5:01 pm

Area51's wrote:Dunn will still have a tough time on these boards, but he could pay off big for some teams. He won't be on mine though....I'm a gambling man...but Burrell is a lot safer bounceback pick than Dunn.

Hope you all ride him while he's hot! ;-D


I don't know if Burrell is that much safer a pick. Dunn has more power and more speed. If he can get that average to about .275 and stay healthy he'll be a STUD. Burrell needs to do all the same things and he doesn't have the speed to steal bases. But I took them both so I hope they both breakout. And I also admit I took Burrell ahead of Dunn. But mainly cause I knew Dunn would be there 16th round.
Barry Bonds for US president.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Apr 12, 2004 5:15 pm

I don't think this is a very reliable poll to use as analysis. Only 2 options, is kinda weak and doesn't leave many options. Reminds me of a Family Guy episode where the prosecuting lawyer ask's a witness "which phrase best describes Brian: Sexual deviant, or magical picture that if you stare at it long enough you see something".

For the record, I think he will hit at least .260 and hit 40 HR.
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Postby KPucks » Mon Apr 12, 2004 6:01 pm

planet wrote:if they bat him higher in the lineup he could get 50+ HRs

This makes no sense. The position in the lineup has little effect on your ability to hit homers. The only effect would be that Dunn would see a few more decent pitches b/c of more protection behind him in the lineup. Still, that doesn't equal 10+ more homers than if he bats lower in the lineup.
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Postby planet » Mon Apr 12, 2004 6:08 pm

i disagree... i think its only a matter of time until pitchers start intentionally walking him every game... and even if its every other game or every other, other game, those are more at bats for dunn and more chances for him to hit his ungodly bombs... 10 is a stretch sure... but not that big a stretch really...
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Postby KPucks » Mon Apr 12, 2004 6:11 pm

planet wrote:i disagree... i think its only a matter of time until pitchers start intentionally walking him every game... and even if its every other game or every other, other game, those are more at bats for dunn and more chances for him to hit his ungodly bombs... 10 is a stretch sure... but not that big a stretch really...

Pitchers are not going to intentionally walk a .240 hitter that often.
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Postby Guest » Mon Apr 12, 2004 8:10 pm

Dunn is for real. He's always had the power and he has now learned how to be a hitter. He is seeing the ball well and is swinging at strikes. It seems simple, but it aint easy. He will hit in the 270 range, maybe better and will be batting 4th in the lineup by the 4th week of the season, just about when everyone will realize he's legit.

As for Burrell, I've followe him since the minors. He's got a sweet swing and tons of power, just like Dunn. The big difference is that Burrell still can't hit a curveball and as soon as he starts facing some pitchers who remember this his average will plumet. His big year was a fluke, because he just isn't that good.

Dunn has learned how to be a major league hitter, Burrell is almost there, but not yet...
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