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A-Rod Owners: Be VERY scared...

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Postby kcs261 » Sat Mar 15, 2003 3:27 pm

As a general rule: A hernitated disc is about the worst injury for a slugger. There are many examples. But all you have to do is look at Edgardo Alfonzo a couple of years back -- who has never been the same hitter since. Also, Helton's diminished production in the second half last season shows what any back injury can do to even an elite hitter.

cardinals15 hit the nail on the head:

The thing about herniated disks is they generally don't get better without a nice long rest period, or surgery.


I agree 110%.

I certaintly would still take him 1st round. Hysteria leads to panic. Panic leads to bad decisions.


Bad first round draft picks also leads to terrible fantasy seasons. And fantasy owners who look at past history know that this is a bad injury for fantasy owners. Believe me, I've been playing fantasy ball, quite successfully, for years now. And if you aren't leary of this injury, you're ignoring patterns.

Bad news because his worth probably drops a bit now. Hopefully he starts the season hot and I can deal him away for proper value.


Or you could find somebody like Hootie and get full value for him now. I'm not telling people to dump him for less than full value. But as I alluded to in the first message, plenty of fantasy owners will ignore the severity of this injury and will pay full price for an A-Rod or Helton with a bad neck/back. So in a non-keeper league only, I'd find one of them and try to make a deal. Further, the nature of this injury is that it'll become more aggravated, the more he plays. So his value is more likely to drop, rather than go higher.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Mar 15, 2003 5:30 pm

kcs261 wrote:
I certaintly would still take him 1st round. Hysteria leads to panic. Panic leads to bad decisions.


Bad first round draft picks also leads to terrible fantasy seasons. And fantasy owners who look at past history know that this is a bad injury for fantasy owners. Believe me, I've been playing fantasy ball, quite successfully, for years now. And if you aren't leary of this injury, you're ignoring patterns.

Or you could find somebody like Hootie and get full value for him now. I'm not telling people to dump him for less than full value. But as I alluded to in the first message, plenty of fantasy owners will ignore the severity of this injury and will pay full price for an A-Rod or Helton with a bad neck/back. So in a non-keeper league only, I'd find one of them and try to make a deal. Further, the nature of this injury is that it'll become more aggravated, the more he plays. So his value is more likely to drop, rather than go higher.


I never said pay full value for him. I said i would still draft him 1st round. Since you are referring to a non keeper league, Vlad and RJ are great 1-2 picks with this injury. However, you said you would pass on him 1st round all together. If its a 12 team league, you would pick 12 over him? Unless word comes out its more serious, i have no problem taking him at the end of 1st round at the worst. In auctions, of course bump him down a few dollars. Rotowire, which is the best in the business, recommends taking Vlad 1st now, and Arod 2nd, not much of a drop, 1 spot. I have a hof 1 year draft next weekend. Unless i hear different reports, i cant see letting Arod go past 3rd pick.
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Postby kcs261 » Sat Mar 15, 2003 5:49 pm

I'm sure that A-Rod wouldn't make it to the 12 spot. Somebody who isn't concerned with this kind of injury would pick him well before. No doubt at it. But I don't like this injury one bit. So I would pass on him in Round 1 altogether. I would draft any number of sure fire guys before A-Rod. I would then bid for Nomar or Tejada later in the draft and be set at SS. By the way, can you name me players who have produced with the injury? If you could, I might be influenced. But based on my experience, I avoid hernitated discs like the plague. Absent an off-season of rehab, or surgery, these injuries are killers.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Mar 15, 2003 6:02 pm

kcs261 wrote: By the way, can you name me players who have produced with the injury? If you could, I might be influenced. But based on my experience, I avoid hernitated discs like the plague. Absent an off-season of rehab, or surgery, these injuries are killers.


Heltons numbers dropped some, but he still produced. His hr splits were 16/14, and his 2nd half ops was still 951. You could be right, Arod could produce less. And nabbing a stud and grabbing Nomar/Tejada a good option. But i still wouldnt let Arod hit the 2nd round.
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Postby jwhands » Sat Mar 15, 2003 6:43 pm

The last time I checked, the regular season isn't for 3 more weeks. I haven't seen ARod in the lineup in spring ball, so isn't 3 weeks of rest a substantial time to heal the injury???
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Postby kcs261 » Sat Mar 15, 2003 7:40 pm

I see Helton's drop from 49 HRs in 2001, to 30 HRs in 2002 as being significant. I also see his drop in RBIs from 146 in 2001, to 109 in 2002 as significant. Still, it's great production. But from a #1 pick, you want more. You also don't want to worry about a DL stint. As far as the question about three weeks is concerned, maybe it's enough time, maybe it's not. But with the history of this kind of injury my view is that it's not enough time. And even if took the next three weeks off (which he won't), he wouldn't be getting any spring training work. Either way, take the chance if you will. But with the history of production after a back injury, you're gambling big time if you draft him with your first pick. The cortisone injection should tell us that this is pretty significant. Just my view.
Last edited by kcs261 on Sun Mar 16, 2003 4:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Bennyy22 » Sat Mar 15, 2003 7:42 pm

mmmmmmmmmmmm................maybe my prediction may come true about a-rod. check the predictions forum if you want to see it.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... php?t=2349
"When you come to a fork in the road, take it."

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Postby nsulham » Sat Mar 15, 2003 9:43 pm

Man, all this talk makes it seem like this guy has the freakin plague or something! I understand the seriousness of the injury but I'll wait until I hit the panic button. Our league had our draft in January so obvioulsy that was WAY before I could have had any knowledge of something like this. With that said, if we were having our draft in the next week, I would probaby take Vlad over Arod. Basically the only question I have is yeah, I can understand looking to deal Arod in a non-keeper but what about a keeper? I'm really hesitant to deal him and have him get over this injury THIS year and have an "Arod year" this year and the next years to come and I lose out on that. I already have the best team in the league, should I mess that up because of this scare?
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Postby Bennyy22 » Sat Mar 15, 2003 11:59 pm

hell no, not in a keeper league. the injury is not serious enough at all to effect the rest of his carear. keep him.
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Postby jpgretzky15 » Sun Mar 16, 2003 12:01 pm

I've got A-Rod, and he ain't goin NOWHERE!

Don't worry about it. Give him some rest till opening day, then watch him tear up the league.
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