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Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

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Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

Postby GibandLou » Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:07 pm

10 Team H2H/5x5 per Category. Keep up to 7 in the round drafted, keeper slot increments 1 per year. 3-year term limit on keepers. We're moving to OBP from BA this year.

As an aside, our keeper slot values are strange. We used to put keepers in Rounds 1-7 and start our draft at Round 8. We changed last year to putting keepers in the round they were originally acquired by the team. Ties in keeper value push the higher-rated player up a round. FA's are slotted at 10. We put in a 3-year term limit on keepers, so at the 2016 draft, the League's keepers will normalize significantly.

My entire roster (keeper candidates are bold):
(formatting: Player Name, Team, Keeper Value (# of years kept, including 2014)

C. Kershaw LAD 5 (2)
F. Hernandez SEA 6 (2)
M. Kemp LAD 7 Y (2)
C. Gonzalez COL 8 Y (2)
C. Santana Cle 10 Y (2)

A. Gonzalez LAD 1
B. Zobrist TAM 2
M. Scherzer DET 3 (1)
J. Altuve HOU 5
J. Donaldson OAK 10
J. Loney TAM 10
H. Kendrick LAA 10
T. Frazier CIN 10
W. Venable SD 10
C. Blackmon COL 10
M. Machado BAL 10
HJ Ryu LAD 10
B. Chen KC 10
D. Robertson NYY 10
K. Jansen LAD 10
L. Hawkins NYM 10
J. Lackey BOS 10
M. Harvey NYM 12
G. Holland KC 19 (1)
J. Werth WAS 23 (1)
S. Miller STL 24 (1)


Scherzer, Kershaw & Felix are no-brainers. CarGo is a no-brainer. Kemp at 7 is an easy decision. That's 5. C. Santana is a favorite of mine, and with moving to OBP, he further differentiates himself from the pack at C (even though it is a 1 catcher league). If I keep all those, I have room for 1 more, from Holland, Werth, and Miller. I have a difficult time justifying 4 SPs out of 7 keepers. Holland emerged as a top-tier Closer (no holds in our league). Werth shows value, particularly at 23.

There are a handful of other "keeper worthy" players on the squad, but I don't care them as much at their respective draft slots as I do those in bold.

A wild-card in this discussion is that I was offered Jose Reyes straight-up for Felix. Reyes has a keeper value of 8, so he would move CarGo & Kemp up to 6 and 7, respectively. This trade wouldn't change the rounds of my draft picks, but it would give me a top-tier SS, and allow me to keep Shelby at 24 (I'm a STL fan).

Open to all opinions. Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
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Re: Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

Postby Philly_05 » Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:23 pm

I wouldn't keep Kemp. I would keep Felix easily for that offer. I would keep Kershaw, Felix, Scherzer, CarGo, Santana, Machado and Holland. I like Miller a lot as well. But 10 teams with the 3 stud SP already in the fold I think Holland makes more sense for his value.
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Re: Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

Postby BalooDP » Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:39 pm

I don't like keeping Kemp either. I'd go Zobrist, or moreso Machado. Like both of them a lot more than Kemp atm.

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Re: Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

Postby blexann » Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:45 pm

you selections are pretty good but I would replace Werth with A. Gonzalez
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Re: Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

Postby GibandLou » Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:56 pm

Thanks guys. I appreciate the comments. I'm looking more closely at Machado now. With both him and Kemp coming off injuries, I was looking at upside for 2014. However, Machado is only 21, and has more worth in the 3 or 4 years I could keep him, plus this would be my first time to keep him. I'd get an extra year, and more longer-term upside.

As for the AGon vs Werth comment, I agree at face value. However, what makes Werth a potential keeper is the cost...he would be a 23rd round pick. AGon would be a first round pick. No way I'm keeping anyone in the 1st round, unless it's Trout or Cabrera. I pick 10th out of 10. If I want AGon back, I can likely get him by taking him in the first round again.

Keep 'em coming, if you have thoughts about these. I'll submit my final keeper list on 3/22.
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Re: Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

Postby matty_icend » Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:05 pm

you should be keeping Machado. Easy decision with his high BA and RBI numbers with a good offense around him... not to mention he is top 3 in young players in the game.
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Re: Finalizing my keepers - opinions appreciated

Postby GibandLou » Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:39 pm

So I'm thinking Kershaw, Felix, Scherzer & Holland for arms, and CarGo, Santana, and either Kemp @7 or Machado @10. I'd like not to keep 4 pitchers out of 7, but all of those guys are bonafide keepers...and having them gives me a huge pitching advantage going into the draft. I'll have to focus on offense in rounds 1, 2 and 4 (Max is a 3rd round keeper). After that, I can round out my team.

The "positives" for Kemp are more speed and power, if fully healthy. His career OBP is .350. The consensus of projections slots him into the area of 450 ABs in 2014 - this is an immediate concern. If I keep him, I can only have him through the 2015 season.

The "positives" for Machado are 1 extra keeper year, and a lower round keeper value, plus his immediate future should be through the growth of his statistical curve. He's on the way up. How high is his ceiling? His career OBP is .309 (.314 in 2013), and he hit only 14 HR in 2013. Will he take a step forward in 2014? 2015? If I keep him, I could have him through the 2016 season.

My preliminary thought is to keep Machado, and try to re-draft Kemp in his vacant Round 7 slot. It's possible, as many other teams will have keepers in Rounds 5-8. But it's not guaranteed.

Any other opinions?
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