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Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

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Re: Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

Postby Donnie740 » Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:02 am

Kimbos Beard wrote:
SecretAgentMan wrote:Goldschmidt, Carpenter and McCutchen. $10 for Kipnis vs $26 for McCutchen...I go with the first round player and stop pinching pennies, esp with a middle infielder. Plus it is not a long stretch to go from Kipnis's 2013 season to his 2012 season where he hit 257 instead of 283 with the rest of his numbers being fairly similar. Big difference between him and McCutchen, $26 is a good price for Mccutchen and Carpenter is also 2b elig...no reasonnot to keep the best player here imo.


This. At some point you save all these pennies to spend on something. Why not just keep McCutchen, a top 5 guy, at a reasonable price. I can't be sure about you're league but I don't think in many standard auction leagues you would be able to get a top 5 player for $26? This makes McCutchen a good value. I keep Carpenter at $3 bucks and throw Kipnis back.



In an auction league, you win by getting the best VALUE, not the best player.

Does McCutch offer 2.5 times more production than Goldschmidt? Not a chance. So Goldschmidt is a MUCH better value at $10 than McCutch is at $26. Will McCutch provide 8.5 times more production than Carpenter? Of course not.

WIth 5 OF and a MI, it's obviously going to be a pretty deep league. Do you have any idea what kind of rubbish you'll be getting for $2 or $3 in the OF or MI? I guarantee it's not going to come close to either Marte or Carpenter.

When people like you are grabbing $26 McCutchens, it doesn't take long until you've blown your wad. Then what? A bunch of $1 scrubs like John Gomes and Vernon Wells filling out your roster.
12 Team 5x5 Keep 12
C Santana
1B Ortiz
2B Pedroia
3B Wright
SS HRam
OF McCutch
OF J Upton
OF E Young
DH Beltre
DL Bruce Trumbo[/b

SP [b]Gray
Haren Porcello Kluber Garza Peavy Burnett Colon
RP Street Soria
DL Harvey
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Re: Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

Postby toledomudhens » Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:29 am

Donnie740 wrote:
Kimbos Beard wrote:
SecretAgentMan wrote:Goldschmidt, Carpenter and McCutchen. $10 for Kipnis vs $26 for McCutchen...I go with the first round player and stop pinching pennies, esp with a middle infielder. Plus it is not a long stretch to go from Kipnis's 2013 season to his 2012 season where he hit 257 instead of 283 with the rest of his numbers being fairly similar. Big difference between him and McCutchen, $26 is a good price for Mccutchen and Carpenter is also 2b elig...no reasonnot to keep the best player here imo.


This. At some point you save all these pennies to spend on something. Why not just keep McCutchen, a top 5 guy, at a reasonable price. I can't be sure about you're league but I don't think in many standard auction leagues you would be able to get a top 5 player for $26? This makes McCutchen a good value. I keep Carpenter at $3 bucks and throw Kipnis back.


He said..."Blowing wads"....teehee :-D ...lol...that's awesome...
In an auction league, you win by getting the best VALUE, not the best player.

Does McCutch offer 2.5 times more production than Goldschmidt? Not a chance. So Goldschmidt is a MUCH better value at $10 than McCutch is at $26. Will McCutch provide 8.5 times more production than Carpenter? Of course not.

WIth 5 OF and a MI, it's obviously going to be a pretty deep league. Do you have any idea what kind of rubbish you'll be getting for $2 or $3 in the OF or MI? I guarantee it's not going to come close to either Marte or Carpenter.

When people like you are grabbing $26 McCutchens, it doesn't take long until you've blown your wad. Then what? A bunch of $1 scrubs like John Gomes and Vernon Wells filling out your roster.
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Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

Postby JMR162; » Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:10 am

Goldy kipnis cutch
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Re: Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

Postby rjforlife » Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:17 am

Despite some hemming and hawing, I think we can all agree on Goldy/Kipnis.


I would say Marte for $2 is your next best keeper. Carp has no speed and no power and you already have a 2B. Marte has OK power and lightning speed. He had a downer 2nd half but he's young and if he plays two halves like his 2013 1st half, he's a top 25 player. I think for $2 you have to give him the nod, especially with the years attached to it.
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Re: Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

Postby Emerald City Blues » Sat Feb 08, 2014 11:28 pm

Thank you all for your perspectives and opinions. I love the discussion on the thread.

With Carpenter, the challenging thing is, can he really sustain what he did last year? 717PAs and 126 runs scored. Plus, he doesn't offer much in the way of Steals or HRs. In a 6x6, that makes him a 4 category guy (if you're OK with 70RBIs, and assume he keeps up his average). Not bad for $3.

With Kipnis, someone made the point about him easily falling back in the territory of a .250 avg. I agree, that's a distinct possibility. So, worse case, what if he did fall back to 2012 numbers. Would a line of 14hr/86r/76rbi/31sb/.257avb/.335obp. I'm not sure if he'd fall back that far. I tend to interpret his 2nd full year in the majors as a step forward, rather than an outlier in the making. even so, that's 3 solid categories, with a little help with HRs.

What I've been seriously mulling over, is the guy seriously overlooked in the conversation so far: Donaldson. $10 for him is equally tempting. Its hard to trust he can do it again, esp given AL pitchers now have a year's worth of film to plan and adjust....still, last years line of 24/89/93/5/.301/.384 is one of the reasons I won my league. Oh, and on the WAR leaderboards, he was #3 overall. Maybe I should roll the dice and take a chance on him???

At the end of the day, what I'm most interested in this year is OBP. IMO, in a 6x6 roto, its even harder to recover from a low OBP, than it is from a low average. I think what I want to try this year, is start with the 3 most solid OBP anchors possible.

Equally important is maximizing value. What's hard is figuring out which player is the best value so early on. Last year I kept McCutcheon because even at $26, he was a $20 value (draft average was in the 40's, and he might've even gone for more in my crazy league).

This year, I don't know who's gonna be the greatest value, which I simplistically calculate as (how much I think a player will go for at auction) - (how much it will cost me to keep him).

If McCutcheon is a $16 savings ($42-$26), and Carpenter is a $13 savings ($16-$3), then McCutcheon is still the greater value, though, not by much. HOWEVER, Carpenter at $3 (vs. McCutcheon at $26)....that gives me an extra $23 in my draft budget. I could do some damage with that, but it wouldn't be a 6-category guy like McCutcheon....

So...do I take the 4category guy and the extra $23 of draft budget? Or the 6 category guy, who is still a huge value...
16 team, roto 6x6

C-Castro
1B-Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Butler
2B-Kipnis, Prado
3B-Sandoval, Frazier
SS-Miller
OFs-McCutchen, Werth, Brown, Swisher, Span, Castellanos

SPs-Wacha, Ryu, Wheeler, Ventura
RPs-Reed, Hunter, Soria, Clippard, Lindstrom, Fields
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Re: Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

Postby SecretAgentMan » Sun Feb 09, 2014 3:11 am

Emerald City Blues wrote:Thank you all for your perspectives and opinions. I love the discussion on the thread.

With Carpenter, the challenging thing is, can he really sustain what he did last year? 717PAs and 126 runs scored. Plus, he doesn't offer much in the way of Steals or HRs. In a 6x6, that makes him a 4 category guy (if you're OK with 70RBIs, and assume he keeps up his average). Not bad for $3.

With Kipnis, someone made the point about him easily falling back in the territory of a .250 avg. I agree, that's a distinct possibility. So, worse case, what if he did fall back to 2012 numbers. Would a line of 14hr/86r/76rbi/31sb/.257avb/.335obp. I'm not sure if he'd fall back that far. I tend to interpret his 2nd full year in the majors as a step forward, rather than an outlier in the making. even so, that's 3 solid categories, with a little help with HRs.

What I've been seriously mulling over, is the guy seriously overlooked in the conversation so far: Donaldson. $10 for him is equally tempting. Its hard to trust he can do it again, esp given AL pitchers now have a year's worth of film to plan and adjust....still, last years line of 24/89/93/5/.301/.384 is one of the reasons I won my league. Oh, and on the WAR leaderboards, he was #3 overall. Maybe I should roll the dice and take a chance on him???

At the end of the day, what I'm most interested in this year is OBP. IMO, in a 6x6 roto, its even harder to recover from a low OBP, than it is from a low average. I think what I want to try this year, is start with the 3 most solid OBP anchors possible.

Equally important is maximizing value. What's hard is figuring out which player is the best value so early on. Last year I kept McCutcheon because even at $26, he was a $20 value (draft average was in the 40's, and he might've even gone for more in my crazy league).

This year, I don't know who's gonna be the greatest value, which I simplistically calculate as (how much I think a player will go for at auction) - (how much it will cost me to keep him).

If McCutcheon is a $16 savings ($42-$26), and Carpenter is a $13 savings ($16-$3), then McCutcheon is still the greater value, though, not by much. HOWEVER, Carpenter at $3 (vs. McCutcheon at $26)....that gives me an extra $23 in my draft budget. I could do some damage with that, but it wouldn't be a 6-category guy like McCutcheon....

So...do I take the 4category guy and the extra $23 of draft budget? Or the 6 category guy, who is still a huge value...



You are over-analyzing this imo. You can not accurately predict what other owners are likely to do in an auction. Someone who needs a bat badly and has money may overpay to get McCutcheon and if two owners decide they want to pay whatever it takes for top hitters, all bets are off. In which case you analysis into savings is moot. Bottom line is you look at what the players output value is likely to be and what best helps your team. As I stated before, I can't see letting a $26 McCutcheon walk and Goldschmidt is a no-brainer. You can certainly debate Kipnis vs Carpenter and that becomes a who do believe in more argument more than anything else. Simply choose the one you like more as $7 differential is not worth over thinking this for. Personally, I like Carpenter more than Kipnis esp. at $3 but if you believe the opposite, then go with Kipnis. $7 is not going to make that much of a difference.
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Re: Keep Carpenter over McCutcheon???

Postby Emerald City Blues » Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:12 am

Thanks! What about a $2 Marte or a $10 Donaldson? Marte's value seems to be on the rise as we get closer to start of the season....if I kept Marte at $2, instead of McCutcheon at $26, that's a lot more money for my draft.....
16 team, roto 6x6

C-Castro
1B-Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Butler
2B-Kipnis, Prado
3B-Sandoval, Frazier
SS-Miller
OFs-McCutchen, Werth, Brown, Swisher, Span, Castellanos

SPs-Wacha, Ryu, Wheeler, Ventura
RPs-Reed, Hunter, Soria, Clippard, Lindstrom, Fields
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