That is really hard to say. Remeber, he is guy who barely hit .200 in the minors in 2002, and he is a free swinger, the type of guy who is feast or famine and can easily get in a rut. He could be anywhere from a poor-man's Renteria (with maybe a little more power) to Nefi Perez. I guess what I am saying is that he has a great upside, but he has a downside risk too.
Also, you can expect at least 3 posts talking about how Matsui should really have won the award.