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do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

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do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Dec 16, 2013 11:19 am

I've played fantasy baseball for awhile, and have always looked mostly at the standard categories like HR/RBI/R/SB/AVG. you can also throw in OBP/SLG/OPS, as well as BB%/K%.
but are there any advanced statistics one could use to evaluate/project players better?
wOBA ?
wRC+ ?
wRC ?
wRAA ?
oWAR ?
oRAR ?
or another one I haven't included?

any stats that includes defense aren't going to be any good, unless you play in a league that includes defense.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby Element » Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:12 pm

I don't pay attention to those. I look at ISO & BABIP. From there I think digging deeper for reasons to explain ISO and BABIP and required. Looking at batted ball data can help explain BABIP to a certain extent (minus defensive shifting). I also look at chase rates in attempt to find trends there as well. Of course, paying attention to BB & K rates are important as well.

As much as the numbers can tell us, I think that it's still very important to attempt to draw conclusions from player news. Of course player's numbers will suffer greatly when they may have been playing through injuries or experimenting with a new pitch or something along those lines. Simply drawing conclusions to numbers works to a certain extent, but there is not a secret formula. Projected batting order position is also important.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby MaudDib » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:12 pm

I agree as well, I don't generally get into a lot of the deeper advanced stats. As Element said, I will look at ISO & BABIP. I will also look at FIP and xFIP for pitchers. I do look at trends though and try and see if what the player is doing is for real, good or bad.

As you said, anything that judges defense, skews the data for fantasy purposes.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:16 pm

I have seen people using all these advanced statistics when talking about players for real baseball and what their value is, so I had been wondering if there were the same type of advanced statistics that could help in fantasy.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby kab21 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:49 pm

I am similar to Element. IsoP and BAPIP are important stats. Additionally I look at K%, BB% and sw% outside of the strike zone for young players when trying decide on potential breakouts or guys to avoid. In general I don't like players with poor plate discipline since these players can turn in dreadfully awful seasons (will Middlebrooks for example :-P ). things like wOBA aren't very important since it's better at measuring how productive a player actually was instead of projecting an increase/decrease in production.

For pitchers I like components of xFIP. I look a lot at K% and BB% preferring players that are trending better in the 2 categories. I also look at HR/FB% and LOB% to find players that might have been lucky/unlucky and are incorrectly valued. A favorite of mine is swstr% which can be used to predict a increase/decrease in K%.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby J35J » Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:27 pm

kab21 wrote:things like wOBA aren't very important since it's better at measuring how productive a player actually was instead of projecting an increase/decrease in production.


kab hit it on the head here....most of these...

wOBA ?
wRC+ ?
wRC ?
wRAA ?
oWAR ?
oRAR ?

...are more indicative of what happened...something that shows how the player has done to date, not as much predictive/projection related...that is where the BB%, K%, BABIP, HR/FB, xFIP, FIP, etc come into play for projecting the future.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:10 pm

As with most vets, I look at BA, ERA and wins then look at how many awards they have won. Things such as golden gloves, all star appearances and you can't beat an MVP. Clutchiness is very important to me too. After all of that I go with my gut. Too many stats can confuse you.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby Tavish » Wed Dec 18, 2013 12:13 am

Mookie4ever wrote:As with most vets, I look at BA, ERA and wins then look at how many awards they have won. Things such as golden gloves, all star appearances and you can't beat an MVP. Clutchiness is very important to me too. After all of that I go with my gut. Too many stats can confuse you.

No mention of calm eye rating or xGrit? No wonder you struggle so much.
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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby GRIN » Wed Dec 18, 2013 12:54 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:As with most vets, I look at BA, ERA and wins then look at how many awards they have won. Things such as golden gloves, all star appearances and you can't beat an MVP. Clutchiness is very important to me too. After all of that I go with my gut. Too many stats can confuse you.


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Re: do advanced statistics help in fantasy baseball?

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Dec 19, 2013 9:52 am

Mookie4ever wrote:As with most vets, I look at BA, ERA and wins then look at how many awards they have won. Things such as golden gloves, all star appearances and you can't beat an MVP. Clutchiness is very important to me too. After all of that I go with my gut. Too many stats can confuse you.

If, after your draft, your team has the most Gold Glove Awards in your league, chances are you will win that league. It's science.
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