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Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

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Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

Postby Berge20 » Sun Aug 11, 2013 7:18 pm

New to keeper formats, and I was an expansion team this year in a now 13-team Roto league (6x5 - OBP and SLG replacing AVE). Appreciate any thoughts and will try and help answer your questions.

The good news is that I don't have to decide now. The other news is that I'm in 5th place and sniffing the money. 1st is running away with things, so outside shot at getting some jellybeans, but not the whole thing.
Haven't had much success trading combos of my guys to improve/solidify my keepers, but interest is building in my younger guys. Since I've never really done this before, I am having issues gauging how much value they really have (especially since I can't keep all 4 of them). Who would you absolutely not trade away at this point from that group?

We keep up to 4 players (these count as your first four picks in the draft) for a maximum of 3 years each.
We also keep up to 2 rookie players/prospects (these count as your final two draft picks) who can be kept indefinitely as long as they are MLB rookies. After they lose that designation, you can keep them in this slot for one year.

4 OF slots, 1 Utl slot and 1 MI slot (as well as one each for all other positions)
3 SP slots, 2 RP slots and 3 P slots.
5 Bench slots, 2 DL slots.

Likely regular keepers:
Goldschmidt (1B)
Justin Upton (OF)
Jay Bruce (OF)
Eric Hosmer (1B)

Other consideration to: Elvis Andrus (SS), Matt Moore (SP) or David Ortiz (1B/DH)

Potential Rookie/Prospect Keepers:
Shelby Miller (SP) - Would have 2014 eligibility in this keeper slot
Jose Fernandez (SP) - Would have 2014 eligibility in this keeper slot
Oscar Taveras (OF) - Would have 2014 and 2015 eligibility in this keeper slot
Xander Bogearts (SS, maybe 3B) - Would likely have 2014 and 2015 eligibility in this keeper slot depending on if/when the Sox bring him up.
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Re: Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

Postby BaseballProf » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:31 pm

I'd keep Ortiz over Hosmer. Hosmer hits way too many grounders and just doesn't seem to have top-40 potential for the immediate future. Ortiz has at least one more big year in him (IMO). I'd also keep Shelby Miller over Jose Fernandez, as well as Xander Bogaerts, but man, are those young SP close.
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Re: Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

Postby ayebatter » Sun Aug 11, 2013 11:44 pm

BaseballProf wrote:I'd keep Ortiz over Hosmer.


Yep, but in the same breath I'd try and move Ortiz+Taveras+ one of Shelby/Fernandez for an upgrade from Ortiz for my 4th keeper spot.
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Re: Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

Postby fast dogs » Mon Aug 12, 2013 1:52 am

give them their choices of Hosmer Ortiz & Moore and 1 rookie for 1 slightly better keeper. Its a tough sell with roughly 50 non rookie keepers in your league you, could find trading tough. Most the dropoff from your final keepers to first non keepers isn't very much, if you can get 1 better player out of the deal somehow and still end up with 5 from your current list you are in good shape for next year. I think you'll most likely find your trading partner from someone who is most interested in 1 of your exciting rookie crop
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Re: Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

Postby Berge20 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 11:06 pm

Thanks for the thoughts guys. Appreciate the perspective and will continue to try and trade, although still tough sledding. If I can't move anyone, is there any merit to consider keeping Fernandez/Shelby (depending on who you prefer) as one of my "normal keepers" over Ortiz/Hosmer, and retaining control of Taveras and Bogaerts?

My knee jerk reaction is that could leave value on the table for next year and isn't generally good, but it would likely add roster flexibility and give me another more tradable future asset next year (over Ortiz for sure).

I guess such is the life of an expansion team--draft young to hope and have tons to pick/choose from and when it happens I just want a dang trading partner. :)
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Re: Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

Postby unspeakabletoll » Tue Aug 13, 2013 11:50 pm

If you're not able to move anyone, I think there is definitely merit in considering Shelby Miller as one of your regular keepers over Hosmer/Ortiz. I think I'd definitely go with Bogaerts from the other group, but for me it would be a toss up between Taveras/Fernandez.
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Re: Looking to the Future and Sniffing Placing

Postby MadDog36 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 3:05 am

Goldschmidt (1B)
Justin Upton (OF)
Shelby Miller (SP) - Would have 2014 eligibility in this keeper slot
Jose Fernandez (SP) (as your 4th keeper)



Potential Rookie/Prospect Keepers: 2 of these:
Oscar Taveras (OF) - Would have 2014 and 2015 eligibility in this keeper slot
Xander Bogearts (SS, maybe 3B) - Would likely have 2014 and 2015 eligibility in this keeper slot depending on if/when the Sox bring him up.

I think I would rather have Upton for his prime years than Bruce who (admittedly is a beast) - on the back end of this you worry about declining production. I would try and move him for a couple of early picks keep Shelbyand Jose and 2 stud bats and keep your best two young prospects, who I don't think you can give away as free keepers.
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