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The Betting Thread

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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:42 am

Very hard to bet on baseball.
I do a few pre-season over/unders and pick a game every now and again. Parlaying in baseball is basically throwing your money away.
I generally preserve my serious betting and larger wagers for NHL playoffs and NFL regular season and playoffs.

That said: Masterson is -140 vs Porcello and I like the over 8.5
Cashner and Gio have been pitching well so I like the under 7.5
Correia and Buehrle suck so I like the over 9.0 just hope that Buehrle sticks around and bleeds and the toronto bullpen doesnt get involved early
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby jefferey13 » Fri Jul 05, 2013 2:13 pm

cordscords wrote:
I think the "locks" of the day are the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Reds, and Braves. Right now a .50 parlay on 5dimes wins you $4.21.


There are a couple of people who have mentioned not to use parlays and I thought I'd just explain a bit why most people are adverse to the parlay.

With this 5 team parlay you are getting 8.42 to 1. Seems like a good payoff when you risk so little to win over 8x what you bet. A solid sports better will be able to win their pics 60% of the time. So with 60% in mind, the odds of picking the money correctly on 5 teams in a row is .6^5. That comes out to 7.78% chance to pick correctly. With these odds your payout should be 12.86 to 1. So you should be getting 50% more on all of your bets.

So lets look at what happens. Right now with a 60% win history, if you made this same 50 cent bet 100 times, you would win about 8 times. That would be a payoff of $37.68. That is a net loss of $12.32.

Now what if you just bet that money on the money line with the same odds of picking winners? Lets assume your average money line is -150. If you made 50 cent bets 100 times, you win $50, now you at least break even.

Now lets run those same numbers one more time, except this time saying you only pick winners about 55% of the time (I'd say more average). Parlays you would win $23.55. Now a net loss of $26.45. Straight money line bets would have you win $45.83, now you only lose $4.17.

Okay now 65%- Parlays you net about $4. Money line about $4. Same thing. So unless you plan on picking better than 65% (which I don't think anyone does?), stay away from the parlays. The risk of ruin is just so big on the parlays.
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby cordscords » Fri Jul 05, 2013 3:25 pm

jefferey13 wrote:
cordscords wrote:
I think the "locks" of the day are the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Reds, and Braves. Right now a .50 parlay on 5dimes wins you $4.21.


There are a couple of people who have mentioned not to use parlays and I thought I'd just explain a bit why most people are adverse to the parlay.

With this 5 team parlay you are getting 8.42 to 1. Seems like a good payoff when you risk so little to win over 8x what you bet. A solid sports better will be able to win their pics 60% of the time. So with 60% in mind, the odds of picking the money correctly on 5 teams in a row is .6^5. That comes out to 7.78% chance to pick correctly. With these odds your payout should be 12.86 to 1. So you should be getting 50% more on all of your bets.

So lets look at what happens. Right now with a 60% win history, if you made this same 50 cent bet 100 times, you would win about 8 times. That would be a payoff of $37.68. That is a net loss of $12.32.

Now what if you just bet that money on the money line with the same odds of picking winners? Lets assume your average money line is -150. If you made 50 cent bets 100 times, you win $50, now you at least break even.

Now lets run those same numbers one more time, except this time saying you only pick winners about 55% of the time (I'd say more average). Parlays you would win $23.55. Now a net loss of $26.45. Straight money line bets would have you win $45.83, now you only lose $4.17.

Okay now 65%- Parlays you net about $4. Money line about $4. Same thing. So unless you plan on picking better than 65% (which I don't think anyone does?), stay away from the parlays. The risk of ruin is just so big on the parlays.


Those numbers are certainly inflated. 55% puts you in the top-tier of all sports. In baseball you can hit on less than 50% and still come out in the black (not the green, my mistake).

I understand where you're coming from though. It's a hail mary play. I had the luxury of playing it because I've been profitable this season. I saw a few matchups that I really liked so I went for it.
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby jefferey13 » Fri Jul 05, 2013 5:05 pm

cordscords wrote:
jefferey13 wrote:
cordscords wrote:
I think the "locks" of the day are the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Reds, and Braves. Right now a .50 parlay on 5dimes wins you $4.21.


There are a couple of people who have mentioned not to use parlays and I thought I'd just explain a bit why most people are adverse to the parlay.

With this 5 team parlay you are getting 8.42 to 1. Seems like a good payoff when you risk so little to win over 8x what you bet. A solid sports better will be able to win their pics 60% of the time. So with 60% in mind, the odds of picking the money correctly on 5 teams in a row is .6^5. That comes out to 7.78% chance to pick correctly. With these odds your payout should be 12.86 to 1. So you should be getting 50% more on all of your bets.

So lets look at what happens. Right now with a 60% win history, if you made this same 50 cent bet 100 times, you would win about 8 times. That would be a payoff of $37.68. That is a net loss of $12.32.

Now what if you just bet that money on the money line with the same odds of picking winners? Lets assume your average money line is -150. If you made 50 cent bets 100 times, you win $50, now you at least break even.

Now lets run those same numbers one more time, except this time saying you only pick winners about 55% of the time (I'd say more average). Parlays you would win $23.55. Now a net loss of $26.45. Straight money line bets would have you win $45.83, now you only lose $4.17.

Okay now 65%- Parlays you net about $4. Money line about $4. Same thing. So unless you plan on picking better than 65% (which I don't think anyone does?), stay away from the parlays. The risk of ruin is just so big on the parlays.


Those numbers are certainly inflated. 55% puts you in the top-tier of all sports. In baseball you can hit on less than 50% and still come out in the black (not the green, my mistake).

I understand where you're coming from though. It's a hail mary play. I had the luxury of playing it because I've been profitable this season. I saw a few matchups that I really liked so I went for it.


Ya, but I inflated them in your favor. The lower you go the worse it gets for the parlay. And 50% only puts in you in the black if you are picking underdogs. Just think, if you pick even matchups (-110 from bc of the vig), you will end up in the red if you are 50%.
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby jefferey13 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 2:55 pm

The dodgers are at +157 on the money line. A lot of people must be betting on the Giants for the line to go that far. I mean Fife has been solid and the dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 while the Giants are 1-9.
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby TheTrith » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:27 pm

Bumgarner though.
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby jefferey13 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:29 pm

TheTrith wrote:Bumgarner though.


Ya he is killing. However with the +157 that just means the dodgers would have to beat bumgarner 2 out of 5 times which i felt was reasonable.
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby fast dogs » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:38 pm

Ump in Anaheim is 12 over 4 unders so far this year, I'll stick with that trend
easy to hit 60% of your best in baseball, its the -190 and -200 that beats you.
I went with the Gio & Cashner under play yesterday also, looked good on paper
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby wingman3110 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:01 am

Not too crazy with any of the lines today. And Sundays for some reason are normally weird to bet on for baseball.

If I do anything today it'll be

DET -140
WAS/SDG Over 7.5
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Re: The Betting Thread

Postby jefferey13 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:10 pm

@fastdogs- nice bet from yesterday. You called that one easy.
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