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Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:33 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:well I guess I should add that when I think of players I think about them in a deeper league. I don't even play in a regular standard league anymore.

A low K/9 is just as detrimental as a high ERA or WHIP regardless of league size, if it's Roto with an IP Limit. There's no disputing that. You have X innings to get as many Ks as possible, while giving up as few H, BB, and ER as possible. People tend to treat them differently because Ks are cumulative while ERA and WHIP are calculated as ratios, but as has been mentioned, when there's an IP limit, it's really a K/9 scoring, because presuming everybody gets to their max, the scoring for K will dole out identically to K/9. So I won't sacrifice a bad K/9 for a good ERA any more than I would a poor ERA for a good K/9.

I'm also going to need a lot more than his last 4 starts in AAA for me to determine the guy is worth blowing up my ratios for. If he posts an ERA under 4 in the MLB this season regardless of how many innings it is, I would be very surprised. I'd call anything under 4.30 a victory. You'd need to be in a really deep AL Only to want a guy who projects for a probable 7 K/9 and 4 ERA to be a regular starter for you.

The nice thing about him is that he's limited his walks over his minor league career. If he's able to translate that to the Majors, as some do and some do not, that will be helpful.
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Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:51 pm

$100 faab budget in my league and someone bid $18 on him. Now, we are in minnesota and the fella is most definitely a homer, but it still seems outrageous.
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby TheTrith » Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:06 am

SpecialFNK wrote:ideally you want a pitcher with a low ERA/WHIP and high K rate. but when it comes to a 3rd+ pitcher on your roster and you have to decide between the two, I would rather have a pitcher with a low ERA/WHIP

Like I already mentioned, he did not have a low ERA or a low WHIP in his AAA career.
Maybe he dramatically improves at the MLB level and finds a away to limit hits, but I find that highly unlikely.

The more likely scenario is that he has several mediocre 4, 5, and 6 inning starts, allowing a few runs each time with a few Ks, and allows more hits than innings pitched.
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 25, 2013 8:56 am

ERA and WHIP are 2 categories.

Ryan Dempster. 9.07 K/9 this season. but he also has 4.23 ER and 1.35 WHIP. regardless of K/9 there is no way I would want Dempster on my team (or any other pitcher with similar numbers), regardless of league size.

I can make up K/9 with non closers who could have 11+ K/9.

this season Gibson has been really good in the minors. not great, but really good. 3.01 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. while limiting walks (2.72 BB/9) and also hits allowed (7.58 H/9).
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby mac-unit » Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:20 am

SpecialFNK wrote:ERA and WHIP are 2 categories.

Ryan Dempster. 9.07 K/9 this season. but he also has 4.23 ER and 1.35 WHIP. regardless of K/9 there is no way I would want Dempster on my team (or any other pitcher with similar numbers), regardless of league size.

I can make up K/9 with non closers who could have 11+ K/9.

this season Gibson has been really good in the minors. not great, but really good. 3.01 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. while limiting walks (2.72 BB/9) and also hits allowed (7.58 H/9).



I wish I was in a league with people who'd take Kyle Gibson over Ryan Dempster. Gibson would be lucky to have that ERA and WHIP this year. Average peripherals in AAA don't translate to MLB success.
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:25 am

I would rather take a chance on Gibson who has had recent success in the minors while being a top prospect, who could have a good ERA/WHIP in the majors,.. than Dempster who you can almost guarantee is more likely to hurt in ERA/WHIP.
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby TheTrith » Tue Jun 25, 2013 4:52 pm

This fellow is rather persistent isnt he.
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:29 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:I would rather take a chance on Gibson who has had recent success in the minors while being a top prospect, who could have a good ERA/WHIP in the majors,.. than Dempster who you can almost guarantee is more likely to hurt in ERA/WHIP.

This is just silly blanket analysis here. Like you're just trotting them both out blindly every 5 days. Oh well. I'm done here. No sense in getting sucked into your vortex any further. Hope Gibson lives up to your hope/expectations.
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:54 pm

I guess I don't understand how there is big hype for someone like Garrit Cole, but then Kyle Gibson who himself is a top prospect is like whatever.
this 2013 season in the minors Gibson has a higher K/9 than Cole does.

Gibson could have some great numbers, or he could get lit up like some rookie pitchers do. but I don't think it's fair to just write him off like he has little chance to be successful.
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Re: Kyle Gibson to the majors. SP Twins

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jun 25, 2013 7:34 pm

Gerrit Cole was a much higher rated prospect than Gibson. Also seen as having a much higher ceiling, whereas Gibson is more of a mid-rotation starter without a whole lot of upside. In a really deep league maybe Gibson would be better, but in most mixed roto leagues I'm going to go with the upside play. Scratch enough lottery tickets and you'll get a winner every once in awhile. You can just drop him if he sucks.
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