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6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:50 pm

Yeah, I can't imagine Buehrle would help in ERA and WHIP. There must be somebody better on waivers, or depending on how low the IP limit is, you could roster a middle reliever. And keep in mind with an IP limit, the K category is effectively K/9. So anything below 8 K/9 or so actually hurts you. And speaking of converting pitcher categories to rate stats, the average middle reliever has an identical W/9 ratio as the average starting pitcher (about one win per 15 IP). I'm going to re-look at that with more data but I'm pretty sure that was the conclusion I came to a few years ago. So middle relievers could effectively help you in every category except saves. And Buehrle probably helps you in none.
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:54 pm

Zack Wheeler is 21st P since 1916 to win debut w/ 0 runs & 7+ Ks. Most recent to do it before him? Matt Harvey.

I just mussed my keyboard. :-L :-S
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:15 pm

Skin Blues wrote:the average middle reliever has an identical W/9 ratio as the average starting pitcher (about one win per 15 IP). I'm going to re-look at that with more data but I'm pretty sure that was the conclusion I came to a few years ago.

OK so after quickly running the data, elite non-closer RPs sorted by xFIP, excluding the top 12 per season to simulate the Kenley Jansen types that are already rostered, and focus on the top 25 that are readily available on the waiver wire, the average reliever gets a W every 15.7 IP. And mediocre starters, defined as the best (by xFIP) excluding the top 50 per season to simulate the starting pitcher most likely to be benched/dropped in favor of adding a MR, average a W every 15.6 IP. If we exclude the top 60 per season (5 pitchers per team in a 12 team league), then the average starter get a win only every 17.8 IP. So you get no advantage in Wins, in a league that uses an IP limit, by using a fringe starter instead of a middle reliever. And obviously you get a huge boost in ERA, WHIP, and Ks. This isn't a new strategy. People have known forever that there's value to be gained by adding a few quality RPs instead of a fringe SP if the roster spots allow for it. But conventional wisdom was that you were sacrificing wins, which it turns out is not the case. In fact it's the opposite.
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby TheTrith » Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:17 pm

Giants fans everywhere must be feeling that knife slip into their backs all over again.
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby TheTrith » Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:23 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:the average middle reliever has an identical W/9 ratio as the average starting pitcher (about one win per 15 IP). I'm going to re-look at that with more data but I'm pretty sure that was the conclusion I came to a few years ago.

OK so after quickly running the data, elite non-closer RPs sorted by xFIP, excluding the top 12 per season to simulate the Kenley Jansen types that are already rostered, and focus on the top 25 that are readily available on the waiver wire, the average reliever gets a W every 15.7 IP. And mediocre starters, defined as the best (by xFIP) excluding the top 50 per season to simulate the starting pitcher most likely to be benched/dropped in favor of adding a MR, average a W every 15.6 IP. If we exclude the top 60 per season (5 pitchers per team in a 12 team league), then the average starter get a win only every 17.8 IP. So you get no advantage in Wins, in a league that uses an IP limit, by using a fringe starter instead of a middle reliever. And obviously you get a huge boost in ERA, WHIP, and Ks. This isn't a new strategy. People have known forever that there's value to be gained by adding a few quality RPs instead of a fringe SP if the roster spots allow for it. But conventional wisdom was that you were sacrificing wins, which it turns out is not the case. In fact it's the opposite.

Interesting.
I guess the next question is (for H2H leagues), how valuable is knowing exactly when those innings will come for the SP, as opposed to random appearances for the RP's?
And how many roster spots can be sacrificed to get enough innings from multiple RP's vs a single SP, and at what point is there more value to be had?
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:40 pm

Very important questions... and the answer is "it depends". I only play roto, so H2H is a whole different animal and I'm not sure of the dynamic there. Weekly lineups vs daily also changes things. Typically I just like having a couple guys like Uehara, Jansen, Robertson, etc on my roster. Maybe 1 or 2, it depends how deep it is and how many bench spots I have available. Flexibility is the key. If you have a bunch of injuries and need the roster spots you can always just drop an RP and replace him from waivers whenever you want. They're always available. Obviously it's best to get a closer handcuff too to increase potential value in saves.
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Jun 19, 2013 5:43 pm

this league is deep, and all 16 owners are active. there doesn't usually end up with pitchers that good on waivers. right now the top ranked SP available for the last 30 days are.. Esmil Rogers, Jerome Williams (who I had, dropped when he wasn't starting anymore), Felix Doubront, Jorge De La Rosa, Alfredo Aceves, Jeremy Hefner, Joe Blanton, Anthony Swarzak, Joe Saunders, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Chad Gaudin, Jason Marquis, and struggling guys like Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Jeremy Guthrie, Ross Detwiler.
even though I'm -45 on IP limit, I'm still 11th in K category.
I'm also full in P spots. we have 2 RP spots and 3 P spots. I have Reed, Jansen, Valverde, Gregerson, Tazawa. although I'm about to put Valverde's ass on my bench!
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:12 pm

another guy I'm deciding whether to start or not is Tommy Milone. normally I would say no because it's at Texas, and my plan for him all season was to only use him at home. but I think I have to take a chance because his last 2 road starts at Chicago and at Milwaukee were good. seeing how I'm almost out of it now (if not already), I might as well take a chance to see if I can improve my ERA/WHIP. if not then shortly I need to make a decision on whether I'm going to blow my team up and trade for better keepers for 2014 plus.
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby ensanimal » Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:16 pm

Finally had to drop Cody Ross. Less than 10 minutes later, pinch hit 3 run HR.

I hate Cody Ross.
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Re: 6/19 Cheering, Venting, and too much Puig is not enough

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:15 pm

Chris Davis is just a beast. 2 hr and 5 RBI today.
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