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Buck Showalter is an idiot

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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Jun 13, 2013 1:29 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
thedude wrote:You should be happy he is batting fifth. Fifth is a more important position than third. Third most often comes up with two outs, while fifth often comes up with men on base. I'm annoyed that Pedroia has been batting third all year. Third is actually less important than second, clean up, lead off and fifth.

This will explain the misunderstood optimization of line ups.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3 ... -lineup-by


You're 100 percent right, but this was mentioned earlier in the thread, and OP decided to keep going on his witch hunt anyway.

Yeah it was funny. He quoted everything I wrote before and after that part, but conveniently didn't address the middle section of my response. Not believing it is one thing but ignoring it doesn't do much good. Also, the difference in PA between the Orioles' #3 hitter and #5 hitter this season is 16, which pro-rates to 39 PA over the course of a season. Pretty damn close to the 32 which is league average for the AL, as I said earlier. Given the higher leverage of the PA's for the #5 hitter it seems that Showalter is doing a fine job with lineup optimization by using his 5th highest OBP hitter in the #3 spot. There's an argument for putting Davis in the #2 or #4 spot I suppose, but there's also value in splitting up LHBs so that opposing teams can't just put a LOOGY in to face 2 or three of your best lefty bats without having to face a righty. In that sense, Machado and Jones should be the 2 and 4 hitters. Seems that the idiot Showalter is pretty good at constructing his lineup.
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby CyboNinja » Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:16 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
thedude wrote:You should be happy he is batting fifth. Fifth is a more important position than third. Third most often comes up with two outs, while fifth often comes up with men on base. I'm annoyed that Pedroia has been batting third all year. Third is actually less important than second, clean up, lead off and fifth.

This will explain the misunderstood optimization of line ups.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3 ... -lineup-by


You're 100 percent right, but this was mentioned earlier in the thread, and OP decided to keep going on his witch hunt anyway.

Yeah it was funny. He quoted everything I wrote before and after that part, but conveniently didn't address the middle section of my response. Not believing it is one thing but ignoring it doesn't do much good.
Hahaha ok. I didn't feel it was worth addressing. I didn't ignore it. I obviously disagree with batting your best hitter 1 or 2 or 5. Based on my other posts within this thread it would be easy for one to discern that.

PS- I didn't ignore the rest of your post this time either. You already made that same point and you're just repeating yourself. I actually read each post in a thread before I chime in unlike some of this thread's participants.


Also here's a fun exercise for this group of haters (assuming any of you read this far), please give me an example of another team who has batted their best hitter 5th all year. I can't think of any but I'm sure its happened before.
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:56 pm

I'm not going to go through every team's splits to see who else used their best hitter at #5, but it really doesn't matter. We already know that many managers are bad at lineup optimization and strategy in general, especially overuse of bunts and IBBs. I don't see any evidence that 3rd is more important than 5th, all else being equal. I see the opposite, and I'm inclined to believe that until and unless I see otherwise. If the evidence is out there it should be easy enough to find. One criticism that I've brought against this is that the #2/4/5 spots are so important traditionally precisely because the #1/3 hitters are so good and therefore on base quite often, making the #2/4/5 spots higher-leverage than they would be in context-neutral situations. Don't know if there's any merit to that, but it would be worth investigating (although I'm sure it's been done).

I think we're seeing more managers use their best hitter in the #2 spot though. Trout, Bautista, Cano, and Altuve (and I'm sure many others, these are just the first 4 I could think of) are all probably the best hitters on their team and have all spent the majority of the season batting 2nd, a lineup spot traditionally reserved for weak hitting bat control guys with the idea that they make "productive outs" when the leadoff hitter gets on. A truly archaic strategy. Can you imagine if power hitters like Cano and Bautista were in the #2 spot 10 years ago? The managers would be laughed at relentlessly. A sea change won't happen overnight, but the changes are gradually happening. As usual Dusty will be the last one to adapt, just as he was with protecting pitchers' health when he ruined Prior and Wood's arms.
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Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:25 pm

CyboNinja wrote:

Also here's a fun exercise for this group of haters (assuming any of you read this far), please give me an example of another team who has batted their best hitter 5th all year. I can't think of any but I'm sure its happened before.



1) why would his even matter? No other team is the orioles.

2) got it. You know significantly more about how to get the most out of your lineup than buck showalter does. No one is disputing that, so why keep fighting?
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:29 pm

Hater in the hooouuussseeeee.
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby jorgesca » Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:45 pm

the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think.


The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball.


So I guess based on that, there's a point in batting Davis 3rd if you think he lives and dies with the long ball (Which I think he does, but not based on this season, hint BA regression). In his other seasons it might have been the right thing to bat him 3rd, but given how good this season has been and not only with the HRs, it is the right decision to bat him 5th.
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Thu Jun 13, 2013 4:36 pm

CyboNinja wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:
A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:
You're 100 percent right, but this was mentioned earlier in the thread, and OP decided to keep going on his witch hunt anyway.

Yeah it was funny. He quoted everything I wrote before and after that part, but conveniently didn't address the middle section of my response. Not believing it is one thing but ignoring it doesn't do much good.
Hahaha ok. I didn't feel it was worth addressing. I didn't ignore it. I obviously disagree with batting your best hitter 1 or 2 or 5. Based on my other posts within this thread it would be easy for one to discern that.

PS- I didn't ignore the rest of your post this time either. You already made that same point and you're just repeating yourself. I actually read each post in a thread before I chime in unlike some of this thread's participants.


Also here's a fun exercise for this group of haters (assuming any of you read this far), please give me an example of another team who has batted their best hitter 5th all year. I can't think of any but I'm sure its happened before.


I touched on this when you talked about Cabrera earlier too: Stop trying to say that Buck is wrong just because he's not doing what other managers do. Buck is doing what he thinks is right for his team, not what other managers think is right for their teams. You keep trying to pigeon hole it as saying that he's dumb for this one thing, but your cause and effect could be way off. Perhaps it's not Buck that looks good because of Davis, but vice versa. Buck has done a great job at handling Davis, and it's showing in Davis' production this year (and to an extent, last year).

Anyway, the reason that I wanted to point out your failure to address Skin Blues' point earlier is not because i thought you might have changed your mind, but rather because I'm curious as to why you disagree. The only justification you've put so far about why you think 3 is the most important spot in the order is that Leyland hits Cabrera there (and perhaps that it's conventional wisdom). However, conventional wisdom and the fact that a manager whose generally pretty poor at lineup optimization does it certainly doesn't prove that Buck should be hitting Davis 3rd.
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu Jun 13, 2013 5:30 pm

additionally, If Joe Maddon was hitting Longoria 5th, everyone would be saying "That Joe Maddon is so unconventional, but he is so successful with his tactics. Other managers could learn from him."

apperently, Buck Showalter has not earned that same grace. As a matter of fact, Showalter gets such little respect that Cyboninja, for some rediculous reason, thinks he is a superior baseball mind than Buck.

I, on the other hand, think Showalter's resume speaks for itself. Maybe you should give it another glance, if you don't feel the same.
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby Izenhart » Thu Jun 13, 2013 6:09 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:additionally, If Joe Maddon was hitting Longoria 5th, everyone would be saying "That Joe Maddon is so unconventional, but he is so successful with his tactics. Other managers could learn from him."

apperently, Buck Showalter has not earned that same grace. As a matter of fact, Showalter gets such little respect that Cyboninja, for some rediculous reason, thinks he is a superior baseball mind than Buck.

I, on the other hand, think Showalter's resume speaks for itself. Maybe you should give it another glance, if you don't feel the same.


The fact that I could replace every instance of Buck Showalter with Dusty Baker does in fact debunk your case.
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Re: Buck Showalter is an idiot

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Jun 13, 2013 6:25 pm

Izenhart wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:additionally, If Joe Maddon was hitting Longoria 5th, everyone would be saying "That Joe Maddon is so unconventional, but he is so successful with his tactics. Other managers could learn from him."

apperently, Buck Showalter has not earned that same grace. As a matter of fact, Showalter gets such little respect that Cyboninja, for some rediculous reason, thinks he is a superior baseball mind than Buck.

I, on the other hand, think Showalter's resume speaks for itself. Maybe you should give it another glance, if you don't feel the same.


The fact that I could replace every instance of Buck Showalter with Dusty Baker does in fact debunk your case.

Touché

Same goes for Ron Washington. Just goes to show you how little the manager matters. You could do everything wrong on purpose and still make it to the World Series a couple times. Leaving Koji Uehara off of the 2011 World Series roster in favour of a 3rd string catcher that was never used, and Mark Lowe who is terrible, probably cost them a championship though. So you gotta try REALLY hard to make a difference as a manager, but it's possible.
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