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Talking Chris Davis

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Talking Chris Davis

Postby Mookie4ever » Thu May 30, 2013 1:18 pm

.359/40/19/50
Second best fantasy hitter right now just a touch behind m-cab.
Is it real or is he headed for a cliff?
OPS of 1.214 is about .400 above his best and his slugging of .766 is way above his norm.
Keep expecting it to end but he's remarkably consistent.
So glad my offer last month of Davis for Morrow was turned down.
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby J35J » Thu May 30, 2013 3:28 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:.359/40/19/50
Second best fantasy hitter right now just a touch behind m-cab.
Is it real or is he headed for a cliff?
OPS of 1.214 is about .400 above his best and his slugging of .766 is way above his norm.
Keep expecting it to end but he's remarkably consistent.
So glad my offer last month of Davis for Morrow was turned down.


Seems like that offer would have been bad even a month ago.


I think he's pretty legit...his walk rate has really gone up and his K rate has really dropped, these are really good things. We know he has monsterous power and his FB rate is going up as well so of course more balls are going to be flying out. I think he can maintain a .290/35-40/110 type of pace from here on out and would expect similar for next year though maybe a .275-.280 average until he can prove his BB and K rates of this year are something he can sustain longer than 2 months.
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby hot4tx » Tue Jul 09, 2013 1:50 pm

bump ttt


Any updated thoughts on Crash? Do you rank his rest of year as a top-10 player?

What are rest of year projections for Crash? O/U on rest of season:
HRs:17
RBI:40
BA:.285
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby jefferey13 » Tue Jul 09, 2013 1:59 pm

Without and research, it reminds me of Hamilton last year. And I would guess what hamilton is doing this year is what Davis will do next.
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby TheTrith » Tue Jul 09, 2013 7:14 pm

Hamilton 2012 and Davis 2013 are kind of similar years, but Davis is better pretty much across the board.
Hes swinging at fewer balls (Davis 35% O-swing, Ham 45% O-swing), walking at a higher rate than anytime in Hamilton's career, has an ISO about 100 points above Hamiltons 2012, does not have the injury history Hamilton has, and most importantly is 5 years younger than Hamilton.
So this peak may in fact be a plateau and last several years for Davis, whereas Hamilton's 2012 season was much more likely to be the highest point in his career.
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jul 09, 2013 7:21 pm

Similar power/whiffs to Hamilton, but for Hamilton it was far and away a career high in K% whereas with Chris Davis it's a career low in K%. Hamilton was trending down as a 31 year old and Davis is trending up as a 27 year old. Certainly he won't be this good next season but I think it's a bit much to predict a crash like what we've seen from Hamilton this year.
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby jefferey13 » Tue Jul 09, 2013 8:39 pm

ya you guys make good points, like I said my statements were without research. Just a thought from watching them for comparisons. Not that either is identical. The real case to be made here is what will happen next year. Because if he continues this way, next year he will be a top 5 draft pick. So will it be worth it?
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:01 pm

I don't think the AVG can continue. but the power potential has always been there.

I don't know what his K% was like earlier in the season, but as I look at fangraphs right now I see 27.8%. that is still too high and not a good number. it is improved from last season of 30.1% and 2011 of 30.0%, but 27.8 is still high.
his BB% is up at 10.0% this season compared to 6.6% last season. but wouldn't that be expected as pitchers are pitching him around him more than last season?
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby J35J » Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:53 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:I don't know what his K% was like earlier in the season, but as I look at fangraphs right now I see 27.8%. that is still too high and not a good number.


Yup, it is going up at an alarming pace. When I posted my points above he was in the 22% range. June has been 35% and July is at 43% so that's not good at all and his walk rate has also dropped pretty much in half these last 2 months. If he's the 30+% guy then he'll be similar to Trumbo in regards to being a .260/35hr type of guy....if he can be the low 20% strike out guy then he can be .280+...he's got far more ABs being the 30+% guy though so I wouldn't expect much more than .260 next year.
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Re: Talking Chris Davis

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:50 am

Yeah, I wouldn't spend a first round pick on him. He might not crash like Hamilton did, but he still has a sky high k rate that I don't want a part of considering what the price will be.
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