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It's just funny

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Re: It's just funny

Postby Skin Blues » Tue May 28, 2013 2:10 am

Another thing I see people say a lot is "so and so started off cold last year (or two, or three years ago) and had a good finish, so it doesn't matter that he's doing bad right now". Or vice versa for somebody that starts hot. This is almost always just random variation, and has nothing whatsoever to do with particular players. Just by random fluke there will be tons of guys who start hot/cold three years in a row, or finish hot/cold three years in a row, and it almost always is absolutely meaningless. Mark Teixeira and Dan Haren have been big ones. For some reason everybody believes Teix always starts slow, and Haren always finishes slow. In 2011 Teix's highest monthly OPS was in April (907). In 2006 and 2008 his Aprils were great (845 and 886 OPS). Did he just forget to start slow those years? The Haren stuff, that he always had a terrible finish to the season, was also debunked as inaccurate. People love to find little meaningless patterns which are most of the time coincidences along a normal distribution curve.

I've even seen people - people that are far too smart to believe this garbage - contemplate whether Teix's June will be OK or if his typical slow start will be moved 2 months forward. Or they think that Matt Joyce will be amazing in May because his career splits said so (this has been talked about a lot since he did so well this year; I'm sure it will be an even hotter topic next season). Or Alex Rios' odd/even year thing where he's only good in even years. As if that's a "thing". I mean, Bret Saberhagen did it and he's only like 0.1% of the MLB pitchers since the 80's so surely it can't be a fluke.

Anyway, most reasonable people know not to put too much stock into hot/slow starts. Pretty much the only thing that matters is injuries or role changes at this point, or identifiable skill changes. Meaning things that stabilize pretty quickly like K%, as opposed to a guy hitting homeruns on 50% of his fly balls or having a .100 BABIP. I see a lot of people saying not to make major trades in April and to wait until the dust settles, but to me, it's the best time to make trades with the people that overreact to April stats.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue May 28, 2013 8:21 am

There is no way to tell what anybody is going to do for sure in this league. We just have a lot of good indicators on probability.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby kab21 » Tue May 28, 2013 12:07 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Another thing I see people say a lot is "so and so started off cold last year (or two, or three years ago) and had a good finish, so it doesn't matter that he's doing bad right now". Or vice versa for somebody that starts hot. This is almost always just random variation, and has nothing whatsoever to do with particular players. Just by random fluke there will be tons of guys who start hot/cold three years in a row, or finish hot/cold three years in a row, and it almost always is absolutely meaningless.


Pretty much agree but there's one piece of analysis that everyone should be doing after a month. Deciding which veterans are victims of bad luck and sample size and which guys are simply not the player you had projected. I'm talking about guys like Pujols, Kemp, Hamilton, CC, Gallardo, Cain, Price and probably a dozen others. Some of these are still decent players but there are signs of decline that no longer match the offseason expectations. there was a legitimate concern regarding Votto since he had shown very little power since returning from an injury last year. Some guys will show that this concern was not warranted and others will actually have declined.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby m16a » Tue May 28, 2013 12:09 pm

kab21 wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Another thing I see people say a lot is "so and so started off cold last year (or two, or three years ago) and had a good finish, so it doesn't matter that he's doing bad right now". Or vice versa for somebody that starts hot. This is almost always just random variation, and has nothing whatsoever to do with particular players. Just by random fluke there will be tons of guys who start hot/cold three years in a row, or finish hot/cold three years in a row, and it almost always is absolutely meaningless.


Pretty much agree but there's one piece of analysis that everyone should be doing after a month. Deciding which veterans are victims of bad luck and sample size and which guys are simply not the player you had projected. I'm talking about guys like Pujols, Kemp, Hamilton, CC, Gallardo, Cain, Price and probably a dozen others. Some of these are still decent players but there are signs of decline that no longer match the offseason expectations. there was a legitimate concern regarding Votto since he had shown very little power since returning from an injury last year. Some guys will show that this concern was not warranted and others will actually have declined.



So for someone like myself who is still new to fantasy baseball and advanced measuring of players, how does one go about this analysis and determination? Or is it a personal eyeball based on your knowledge of the game?
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Re: It's just funny

Postby kab21 » Tue May 28, 2013 12:30 pm

m16a wrote:So for someone like myself who is still new to fantasy baseball and advanced measuring of players, how does one go about this analysis and determination? Or is it a personal eyeball based on your knowledge of the game?


Luck, skill, and luck.

I will use Gallardo as an example. I'm becoming more and more concerned about him due to velocity loss. Ender, who is smarter than I, isn't concerned due to the cold weather affecting pitchers this April and early May. Perhaps I am right to be concerned since it's the end of May now but who knows.
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