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It's just funny

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It's just funny

Postby J35J » Mon May 27, 2013 7:11 pm

On April 23rd Justin Upton had 11HR and everyone was sure he was going to hit 50...well he's hit 2 in May and 3 total since April 23rd.

On April 9th Mike Morse had 6HR and everyone was sure he had a shot at 35-40...well he only hit 2 more that whole month and only has 2 in May.

On April 19th Joey Votto was hitting .264 with 1HR and everyone was sure he just wasn't much of a fantasy guy...well since then he's hit 8 more HR and is now hitting .350 on the year.

On April 22nd Edwin Encarnacion was hitting .200 with 2HR/8RBI and everyone was assuming last year was a mirage...well since then he's raised his average .053pts with 11 more HR and 30 more RBI.


...then moral of the story is baseball is a long, long season with a lot of ups and downs...April is a funny month because everyone starts out with zeros so any hot or cold streak to start the year does funny things with expectations...if those hots and colds were, and are, done in July then not a lot is made of it because you already have a base of stats sitting there that don't get influenced nearly as much. Do your best to ignore, or at least learn to take with a grain of salt, the month of April and September for that matter.


Discuss...
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Re: It's just funny

Postby mac-unit » Mon May 27, 2013 7:23 pm

Who is everyone? I'm sure no one in any good leagues were dumping Votto or Encarnacion. Plus Votto is still a better real life player than Fantasy. Also in 2011 Morse hit 1 homerun in April and 2 in July. He finished the year with 31. If he stays healthy(big if), 35 is still a possibility.
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It's just funny

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon May 27, 2013 8:11 pm

I still think upton will hit 35+. I still think morse will hit 30. I don't really recall "everyone" suggesting much better than that.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby kab21 » Mon May 27, 2013 8:26 pm

mac-unit wrote:Who is everyone? I'm sure no one in any good leagues were dumping Votto or Encarnacion. Plus Votto is still a better real life player than Fantasy. Also in 2011 Morse hit 1 homerun in April and 2 in July. He finished the year with 31. If he stays healthy(big if), 35 is still a possibility.


People weren't dumping Votto but there was a lot of discussion about how bad Votto was as a first rd pick. I'm also not sure that Votto is that much better in real life. He was absolutely amazing in fantasy in 2010/2011 and his down year last year was still respectable other than missing 50 games. Best trade ever 4 yrs ago in my dynasty league.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby J35J » Mon May 27, 2013 9:22 pm

The "everyone" comments and topic itself was just a discussion starter...just to see what if anything came from the topic. Carry on...
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Re: It's just funny

Postby isayfujobu » Mon May 27, 2013 9:24 pm

I was one of the ones bitching about Votto's uber-patient approach earlier, but never doubted the power would return. I took him #5 overall. Now he's cranking fat 2-0, 3-0 pitches over the fence like a player his caliber should. So we're bros again.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby J35J » Mon May 27, 2013 9:31 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:I still think upton will hit 35+. I still think morse will hit 30. I don't really recall "everyone" suggesting much better than that.


Just for fun, I'll take the under on both of those.

I'm actually a little concerned about the whole Braves offense going forward...this whole "all or nothing" type of approach will catch up to them, or they'll actually still hit their home runs but it will all come with .220-.250 batting averages and their fantasy value will drop because of it.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby BJSFAN123 » Mon May 27, 2013 10:19 pm

J35J wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:I still think upton will hit 35+. I still think morse will hit 30. I don't really recall "everyone" suggesting much better than that.


Just for fun, I'll take the under on both of those.

I'm actually a little concerned about the whole Braves offense going forward...this whole "all or nothing" type of approach will catch up to them, or they'll actually still hit their home runs but it will all come with .220-.250 batting averages and their fantasy value will drop because of it.


They'll just be a really streaky team probably. They have a great record with BJ being completely useless so far and Heyward being useless + injured + losing freeman for a good amount of time though.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon May 27, 2013 10:29 pm

I think anyone with a decent amount of fantasy experience can tell you that hot streaks are hot streaks," and slumps are slumps. And you shouldn't weigh any one particular month too heavily.



I think April is the best month to say "so and so is on pace for..." Which I think is a "just for fun" stat. I didn't see many people selling the house to buy Upton and Morse just like I didn't see anybody giving up on Joey Votto.

Hitters have hot streaks and eventually slow down (see 2012 Josh Hamilton), just like people have slumps and heat up (see 2012 Giancarlo Stanton). I think everyone on this website knows that.
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Re: It's just funny

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 28, 2013 12:58 am

I got to admit I jumped on Joey Votto as my first round pick. I feel better now.

I thought, pre-season that Jupton was a bad pick. In fact, I steered away from NL East hitters in general. My theory was that there was just too much good pitching in the NL east. Last year only a few hitters lead the NL in OPS from the East. But you know Hamels has been shaky, Doc hurt and inconsistent, Gio, inconsistent and other examples. The pitching isn't there in the NL East and yet ...an amazing stat..just 3 of the top 20 in OPS, Harper, Jupton and Wright are in the NL East. Can you imagine what could have happened if so many of these top NL east pitchers hadn't flopped?

It's just funny.
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