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The new Derek Holland

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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby kab21 » Tue May 14, 2013 11:20 am

A 4ish ERA, solid K's and pretty good run support (maybe W's)? That's not nothing imo.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 14, 2013 11:32 am

kab21 wrote:A 4ish ERA, solid K's and pretty good run support (maybe W's)? That's not nothing imo.

Right. Nobody said it was nothing. What it is is something I'm probably not willing to pay the required asking price for right now. You have to pay for the upside, when up until now he's shown too much of the downside, with glimpses of the upside. Again, I wish I had drafted him, but if you're trying to trade for him right now, chances are his asking price has never been higher. It's not the optimal time to be trading for a guy, especially with a track record of volatility. Also, as mentioned previously, I'd be a lot more likely to do it in H2H where his implosions are wiped clean on Monday morning.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby Ender » Tue May 14, 2013 11:55 am

My real issue with Holland is the blowups aren't predictable. I like these more marginal guys when they have big home road splits or just certain teams that destroy them etc. That is why I traded Morrow for Lincecum, I find it much easier to predict Lincecum than Morrow.

Holland is probably a step above both of those guys right now but assuming he does have some blowups they are usually mechanical and not because of facing good offenses etc.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby garf112 » Tue May 14, 2013 4:41 pm

I agree with all of those saying they wouldn't pay for Holland. If I owned him, and I feel like this is the first year that I don't, I would be trying to sell high. There is a lot to worry about:

1) Track record of 4+ ERA, 4.54 career ERA, lowest single season ERA of 3.95.
2) Home career ERA is 5.06- current home ERA = 1.57
3) Warm weather at Arlington will turn more fly balls into home runs. career HR%= 12.5%, current HR%= 4.2%
4) Overusing his slider means injury may be imminent. (I know it says differently in the article, but when you throw a pitch double the amount you are used to and that pitch is known to cause injuries when thrown at a high percentage...)

He is 26 and his BB rate has improved, so those are certainly positive signs. Include that with the new pitch talk and I can see someone else buying it. I'm going to pass, though.
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