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The new Derek Holland

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The new Derek Holland

Postby kab21 » Tue May 14, 2013 3:22 am

I have owned this guy for 4 years and have suffered through a mix of brilliant performances and complete ineptitude. I didn't really care though because he was part of a trade that defined my dynasty team. Chad Billingsley (still considered a soft ace), Jesus Montero (an elite prospect) and Kyle Drabek (a near elite pitching prospect) for Votto (before the breakout) and Holland. And that was from a non-active former cafe'r.

CBS said this about him
Holland has gotten off to a fantastic start this year, posting a 2.54 ERA and 2.39 FIP. While he's still using the same five pitches, he's changed up his usage rates. Holland's slider usage is up 10 percent this year. It's been his best strikeout pitch in the past, and Holland is using it a lot more with two strikes this season.

He's also working with an improved changeup. Not only is he using the pitch more often, but it's been three miles per hour slower than his old change. The pitch has mainly been used to neutralize righties, who have hit Holland much better during his career.

With his new skill set, Holland has been a major Fantasy surprise this year. If he moves forward with his approach, he might be a candidate to continue his breakout.


So I looked a little closer and not only is he calling different pitches than last year but the advanced stats all show very positive trends. swstr% has increased to 10.6% (from 8%) and batters are swinging a lot more (34.6% vs 28%) on pitches out of the zone and making less contact on those pitches. BB's are also down considerably.

Buy high because Holland looks like a soft ace even though he's not going to continue to be a <3 ERA guy (not including current stats).
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby bayside » Tue May 14, 2013 5:09 am

When was Billingsly ever considered an ace?
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 14, 2013 6:33 am

I dunno about Ace, though he did say soft Ace, but 2007/08 he was very highly regarded, as long ago as that feels.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby mweir145 » Tue May 14, 2013 6:45 am

Holland has always been capable of dominance. He throws the occasional shutout or 1 ER game and it makes you wonder what he could be. This is too small a sample size so far for me to totally buy that he's a changed pitcher, though.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby Ender » Tue May 14, 2013 8:14 am

Holland's problems have always been mechanical (well and the fact he isn't even a tiny bit funny but thinks he is), his mechanics fall apart every few starts. Maybe he has fixed it, I dunno, but I'd still personally be worried that he'll fall apart for a few games and give up 7 ER in 1 IP.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 14, 2013 9:19 am

He's the type of guy, for me, who is too volatile to be trading for given all the risk and history, but at the same time, a guy who I'm holding onto for dear life if I have him already, in case this is the year he stops having the meltdowns. I know that's a bit of a funny statement, but really, a player's worth does change, in my eyes, depending on whether you've already got him or are trying to acquire him. Sometimes a player is worth more to you if you've already got him than you'd be willing to give to get him. If you've got him already, you only risk losing him if he craps out. If you trade for him and it happens, you not only lose him, but whatever you gave up to get him. Holland right now fits this profile to a T for me. A guy I've owned several times in the past, and don't own anywhere this year, wish I did, but am unwilling to trade anything of real value for. I'm rambling.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby J35J » Tue May 14, 2013 9:29 am

bigh0rt wrote:He's the type of guy, for me, who is too volatile to be trading for given all the risk and history, but at the same time, a guy who I'm holding onto for dear life if I have him already, in case this is the year he stops having the meltdowns. I know that's a bit of a funny statement, but really, a player's worth does change, in my eyes, depending on whether you've already got him or are trying to acquire him. Sometimes a player is worth more to you if you've already got him than you'd be willing to give to get him. If you've got him already, you only risk losing him if he craps out. If you trade for him and it happens, you not only lose him, but whatever you gave up to get him. Holland right now fits this profile to a T for me. A guy I've owned several times in the past, and don't own anywhere this year, wish I did, but am unwilling to trade anything of real value for. I'm rambling.


Yeah, there are a lot of guys like this for me.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby ichirosan » Tue May 14, 2013 9:41 am

Got him 5 years ago with the No. 1 waiver in my 20-man dynasty league (just a couple of days before that year's Minor League Draft started). Have been hoping this for a while, thought I'm still worried about Texas in the summer.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby kab21 » Tue May 14, 2013 10:32 am

bayside wrote:When was Billingsly ever considered an ace?


A 24 yr old that goes 16-10 with 200K's in 200 IP and a 3.14 ERA is considered an ace.

Yeah, Holland could have a couple of his patented blowups this summer but I think most that have him would still value him outside of the top 100. And I disagree with bighort's math. Even if you he does blowup a few times you have a solid pitcher overall.
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Re: The new Derek Holland

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 14, 2013 10:55 am

kab21 wrote:
bayside wrote:When was Billingsly ever considered an ace?


A 24 yr old that goes 16-10 with 200K's in 200 IP and a 3.14 ERA is considered an ace.

Yeah, Holland could have a couple of his patented blowups this summer but I think most that have him would still value him outside of the top 100. And I disagree with bighort's math. Even if you he does blowup a few times you have a solid pitcher overall.

The guy's been a pretty solid H2H pitcher for awhile now. In roto, though, he can be killer, because he melts down the way Brandon Morrow does -- the wheels fall off. He's definitely a guy I'm gun shy to give up something for, though, because if he ends up with an ERA close to, at, or over 4 like he has for pretty much his entire career (or let's say, pitches that way for the remainder of the year), not only do you have to stomach that, but you have to stomach the loss of what you gave up to get that, which is substantially more than having to deal with it if you already got him via the draft, where all he cost you was a middle to later pick. Given how he's pitched this year, though, his likely acquisition cost, for me, outweighs his expected value, when I calculate the risk and downside. Just too risky. He's a guy I wish I had drafted, though; or in the case of my main league, not traded at the deadline last year, as a keeper -- the owner who I traded him to is loving it thus far.
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