Skin Blues wrote:Batting average is not a binary high or low outcome. He's 43 points below his projected batting average based on ZiPS due to a K-rate that is 10% higher than his career K rate. His swing rate is down and his contact is rate is also down. He's also helped by a 25% HR/FB which will probably be cut in half from here on out. Not good. I don't have Uggla on any teams but he's ben much worse than most people would have expected.
In my opinion, you seem to get too caught up in these predictive stats rather than actual outcomes. Especially when the sample size you are looking at is about 35 or so games.
If you drafted Dan uggla expecting anything more than a .220-.230 avg and 30 hr, that is an issue with expectations, not results.
1 month into the season he's got you the hr, but batting 20-30 pts lower than expected. So what? In sure he'll have a month or two this summer when he bats .250+. And, in those months his hr/fb% may go down, but the added hits may make up the difference.
Cumulative stats at the end of the year are made up of a series of hot and cold streaks (both in contact and power). So, to give up on someone after a month because he's batting 20-30 pts lower than you expect, even though the power is there, is a bit premature. He's been ice cold and still has 7 hr. he also has a tendency to get scorching hot.