Who are you giving up on? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who are you giving up on?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Who are you giving up on?

Postby NikkiSixx » Mon May 13, 2013 4:30 pm

I have officially given up on:

Jesus Montero
Dan Uggla
John Axford
Dustin Ackley
Tommy Hanson
NikkiSixx
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Response TeamPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 2587
(Past Year: 433)
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 1st place!

Re: Who are you giving up on?

Postby AHF » Mon May 13, 2013 4:52 pm

Waffling on a $3 Billy Hamilton in a keeper league. I have given up hope of any impact outside of a few weeks of call up at the end of the season (that is the upside) but am struggling whether to free up a roster spot or hold onto him given the game changing speed. 10 team mixed roto with $315 budget.

Players I gave up on already:
Josh Reddick
Dan Haren
Jose Veras
Salvador Perez

Players I would have to take a 2014 penalty to cut but who are painful to hold:
Eric Hosmer
Mike Moustakas
AHF
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 232
(Past Year: 8)
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who are you giving up on?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon May 13, 2013 5:24 pm

Why would you give up on Jose Veras? He's been pretty good and has no competition for saves.

As for Billy Hamilton, in a 10 team league I don't know that I'd bother with him right now, and he's probably not worth stashing even in a keeper. He's been pretty terrible in AAA. His walks have disappeared completely and he still can't hit, so that kinda kills any value he could provide to an MLB team offensively. He's probably an upgrade defensively over Choo but he's such a bad hitter I don't think that matters.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3081
(Past Year: 113)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who are you giving up on?

Postby AHF » Mon May 13, 2013 5:37 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Why would you give up on Jose Veras? He's been pretty good and has no competition for saves.


I quit on Veras early in the season because I had 4 closers already and wanted to get a versatile bat on the bench to fill in for off days (Matt Carpenter). In addition, I have taken beatings in past seasons in my ratios from suspect closers and so dumped him much earlier than I ordinarily would with a closer after I figured the Astros would have limited opportunities and Veras looked shaky out of the gate (with a 1.5 WHIP last season). I figured that I always pick up 1-3 closers off waivers during the season so I was likely to upgrade over him when I did so (had I not been an hour late in trying to snag Mujica that would have paid off very nicely). He has obviously been much better of late so while I don't know that I would ditch him right now, he is someone that I already gave up on so I figured I should list him in the interests of full disclosure.
AHF
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 232
(Past Year: 8)
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Who are you giving up on?

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon May 13, 2013 6:48 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:I have officially given up on:

Jesus Montero
Dan Uggla
John Axford
Dustin Ackley
Tommy Hanson



Uggla? On pace for 30 hr with a crappy avg. did you expect something different?
Follow me on the twit! @chadmiller16
lastingsgriller
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 3882
(Past Year: 172)
Joined: 21 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: ..skipping the light fandango.

Re: Who are you giving up on?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon May 13, 2013 7:45 pm

Batting average is not a binary high or low outcome. He's 43 points below his projected batting average based on ZiPS due to a K-rate that is 10% higher than his career K rate. His swing rate is down and his contact is rate is also down. He's also helped by a 25% HR/FB which will probably be cut in half from here on out. Not good. I don't have Uggla on any teams but he's ben much worse than most people would have expected.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3081
(Past Year: 113)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who are you giving up on?

Postby isayfujobu » Mon May 13, 2013 7:58 pm

I just bailed on Willingham. I didn't want to, but I have BJ Upton, M. Montero and too many injuries on that team to wait on him to wake up.
isayfujobu
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 76
Joined: 16 Feb 2011
Home Cafe: Baseball

Who are you giving up on?

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon May 13, 2013 8:33 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Batting average is not a binary high or low outcome. He's 43 points below his projected batting average based on ZiPS due to a K-rate that is 10% higher than his career K rate. His swing rate is down and his contact is rate is also down. He's also helped by a 25% HR/FB which will probably be cut in half from here on out. Not good. I don't have Uggla on any teams but he's ben much worse than most people would have expected.



In my opinion, you seem to get too caught up in these predictive stats rather than actual outcomes. Especially when the sample size you are looking at is about 35 or so games.

If you drafted Dan uggla expecting anything more than a .220-.230 avg and 30 hr, that is an issue with expectations, not results.

1 month into the season he's got you the hr, but batting 20-30 pts lower than expected. So what? In sure he'll have a month or two this summer when he bats .250+. And, in those months his hr/fb% may go down, but the added hits may make up the difference.

Cumulative stats at the end of the year are made up of a series of hot and cold streaks (both in contact and power). So, to give up on someone after a month because he's batting 20-30 pts lower than you expect, even though the power is there, is a bit premature. He's been ice cold and still has 7 hr. he also has a tendency to get scorching hot.
Follow me on the twit! @chadmiller16
lastingsgriller
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 3882
(Past Year: 172)
Joined: 21 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: ..skipping the light fandango.

Re: Who are you giving up on?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon May 13, 2013 8:42 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:1 month into the season he's got you the hr, but batting 20-30 pts lower than expected. So what? ... to give up on someone after a month because he's batting 20-30 pts lower than you expect, even though the power is there, is a bit premature

Well it's 43 points below, not 20-30. And the underlying stats, which stabilize pretty quickly, support the decline. It's not like he's a superstar, he was borderline unrosterable in 12 team mixed leagues even before the season started.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3081
(Past Year: 113)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Who are you giving up on?

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon May 13, 2013 8:49 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:1 month into the season he's got you the hr, but batting 20-30 pts lower than expected. So what? ... to give up on someone after a month because he's batting 20-30 pts lower than you expect, even though the power is there, is a bit premature

Well it's 43 points below, not 20-30. And the underlying stats, which stabilize pretty quickly, support the decline. It's not like he's a superstar, he was borderline unrosterable in 12 team mixed leagues even before the season started.


I guess these are the expectations I was referring to. If you were expecting more than .220-.230, you probably overestimated what to expect from uggla. It appears that you were expecting .240.

The only reason you draft Dan uggla is because he is one of the few middle infielders that can get you 30 hr.

Long story short, if you drafted him to get you a .225 avg and 30 hr, I see no reason why he won't get you exactly that. If you drafted him expecting more, that was probably an error in judgement.
Follow me on the twit! @chadmiller16
lastingsgriller
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 3882
(Past Year: 172)
Joined: 21 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: ..skipping the light fandango.

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact