Vernon Wells. what will happen? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed May 01, 2013 8:30 am

when the Yankees traded for Vernon Wells, it was expected he would only be filling in for Curtis Granderson while he was injured. once Granderson returns, then what?

it was expected that once Granderson returns, the OF would be Granderson/Gardner/Ichiro.
Wells has been producing, can they really bench him once Granderson comes back?
.300/.366/.544/.911/ 6 HR/ 13 RBI/ 14 R.
I had been wondering if Wells could be the DH, but Travis Hafner is there, and he is producing too. (.318/.438/.667/1.104).
could the Yankees instead bench Ichrio? Ichiro is getting hits, but almost all singles. in his 22 hits, he has 2 doubles and 1 HR.
could one of these players also cover 1st? I would have to doubt that.

I drafted Wells (deep league), and he has been producing. it would suck if he gets sent back to the bench, or even becomes a part time player. if I thought that would happen, I could trade him now. but if I trade him based on thinking/assuming he's going to get reduced playing time, and he ends up continuing to start, then it's going to suck having settled for less just to trade him.
SpecialFNK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5002
(Past Year: 81)
Joined: 21 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 9:24 am

He will stop his hot streak and be a part time player. Enjoy the value you got from him so far but this is just a fluke.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed May 01, 2013 9:40 am

I think this Wells is closer to what he should be than the Wells we've seen the last 2 years, at least for AVG.

the HR haven't gone anywhere the previous 2 years.
2012- 11 HR in 77 games/243 AB. 41.9 FB%, 12.5 HR/FB.
2011- 25 HR in 131 games/505 AB. 48.1 FB%, 12.3 HR/FB.
this season - 6 HR in 24 games/90 AB. this pace wont continue, but it's not that off. this season he has 46.8 FB%, 16.7 HR/FB.

his AVG the previous 2 years could be from bad luck.
2012- .230 AVG, .226 BABIP.
2011- .218 AVG, .214 BABIP.
this season it's closer to a normal level of .296 BABIP (.300 AVG). his career is .280 BABIP. (.273 AVG).

his BB/K haven't changed that much.
2012- 6.1 BB%, 13.4 K%.
2011- 3.8 BB%, 16.3 K%
this season - 9.9 BB%, 13.9 K%

he's never really had a problem with contact.
2012- 85.6 %
2011- 81.3 %
this season - 79.1 %
career - 82.1 %

nothing really jumps out this season like OMG this just wont continue. I would doubt he keeps this HR pace of 6 HR a month, but if he can play as a regular all season I think 3 to 4 HR a month is sustainable.
SpecialFNK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5002
(Past Year: 81)
Joined: 21 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 9:49 am

Yeah 3 or 4 HR a month is doable. Being fantasy relevant is doable as well. The problem is more lineup construction than anything. Hafner is hitting so you aren't going to sit him vs RHP. You aren't sitting LH hitting Gardner or Suzuki against RHP on a regular basis and Granderson is going to play every day. Wells is going to become a part time player. His platoon splits are all over the place so hard to tell if he should be in a platoon or not.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed May 01, 2013 9:55 am

I'm not one to follow much about defense at all, so I don't know if any of the other OF could play RF instead of Ichiro, but offensively I think Wells would be a much better choice over Ichiro for the lineup.

I think it's also worth noting that all of Granderson, Gardner, Ichiro, and Hafner are all left handed batters. where as Wells is right handed.
one could also imagine it's just a matter of time before Hafner gets injured.
SpecialFNK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5002
(Past Year: 81)
Joined: 21 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 10:00 am

I think it's also worth noting that all of Granderson, Gardner, Ichiro, and Hafner are all left handed batters. where as Wells is right handed


This is bad news for Wells. It is hard enough to win playing time when you have the reputation for struggling vs RHP but when you have to beat out guys who are all LH it just becomes harder. Boesch is LH too and they'll want to get him AB as well. I would take the under on 130 games started by Wells on the year. Personally I think his value dries up once Granderson is back unless you are in a deep league with daily roster moves that has a decent sized bench.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby SpecialFNK » Wed May 01, 2013 10:08 am

Ender wrote:
Personally I think his value dries up once Granderson is back unless you are in a deep league with daily roster moves that has a decent sized bench.


that's good for me personally. I have him in a 16 team league, with 9 bench spots.

I'm going to hope something happens so Wells can continue to get regular AB. maybe another injury or a trade.
SpecialFNK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5002
(Past Year: 81)
Joined: 21 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby Skin Blues » Wed May 01, 2013 11:47 am

A Yankee getting injured? What are the chances of that? :-D

I think his playing time is drying up. They won't just bench him right away but as soon as he gives them the slightest reason, he'll be platooning against LHP and be a pinch hitter against LOOGYs. It's amazing to see what he's done this year, and when something like this happens I have a tendency to think "well it makes sense, he used to be great, so we knew it was possible". But then you realize he was terrible for 2 years, not just a month or two. He had established himself as one of the worst hitters in baseball over 800 plate appearances. And he had similarly bad seasons in 2007 and 2009. So how sustainable is this? Will the slightest external stressor knock him out of this anti-terribleness trance?
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3081
(Past Year: 113)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 11:53 am

I think if you are in the type of league that you were instantly intrigued when the Yankees signed him he is going to hold enough value all year long. If you took no notice of the move and only picked him up because he is insanely hot then you are probably in the type of league that he won't be worth keeping at some point in the season.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Vernon Wells. what will happen?

Postby NZ Eff » Fri May 03, 2013 1:43 am

Wells will still get plenty of starts against LHP and of course AB's as a pinch hitter but holds little value in most fantasy formats once Granderson is back.
NZ Eff
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Matchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1480
(Past Year: 23)
Joined: 20 Jan 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact