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5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

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Best Team in the NL Central?

Poll ended at Thu May 02, 2013 7:17 am

St. Louis Cardinals
10
38%
Milwaukee Brewers
1
4%
Pittsburgh Pirates
4
15%
Cincinnati Reds
10
38%
Chicago Cubs
1
4%
 
Total votes : 26

Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 10:53 am

I am a little surprised that the Brewers are doing this well with the injuries they have had because they don't have the depth the Cards or Reds have. Over the course of the season I think it hurts them.


They don't have the Cardinals depth but they certainly have as much as the Reds outside of the bullpen. I don't think there is more than 3 or 4 games separating the top 3 spots in the NL Central. One team will do better in 1 run games and win like 91, another will end up around 88 and then one will be at like 85 and then the Pirates will hover around .500 and the Cubs will stink. Now if you think the Brewers are the 85 then I'm fine with that but that is still a line that allows for someone to pick them. They won 83 games last year in a down season where the bullpen blew 29 leads, with a couple better bullpen arms they would have been in the mix last year. I'm not sure Badenhop, Gonzalez and Gorzelanny count as better arms though. This isn't like someone picking the Cubs to take the division where they aren't discussion worthy.

They are a Peralta, Fiers, Burgos or Thornburg breakout away from having a good pitching staff. It is just hard to predict if one of those guys will actually take the step.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed May 01, 2013 11:23 am

Ender wrote:They are a Peralta, Fiers, Burgos or Thornburg breakout away from having a good pitching staff. It is just hard to predict if one of those guys will actually take the step.

Possible it happens, sure. Likely that it happens, no. That is my same answer to "Will the Brewers win the NL Central?". There are two obviously better teams.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 11:37 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Ender wrote:They are a Peralta, Fiers, Burgos or Thornburg breakout away from having a good pitching staff. It is just hard to predict if one of those guys will actually take the step.

Possible it happens, sure. Likely that it happens, no. That is my same answer to "Will the Brewers win the NL Central?". There are two obviously better teams.


We will agree to disagree. On paper the Reds are obviously the best team in the division. I don't think the Cardinals look any better than the Brewers on paper but they do always seem to find a way. Their SP is pitching out of their minds and that is not as strong a lineup as it has been in the past. It will shock me if the reds aren't in that 85+ win club assuming they stay pretty healthy, won't surprise me a tiny bit if the Cardinals or Brewers fall under it. I don't see the Cardinals being the class of the division though, they are more like the Brewers than the Reds. They might not end up the best team but they certainly should be in any intelligent discussion of the division. Kind of like the Diamondbacks in the NL West. They might not be a sexy pick but they certainly should be in the discussion.

Sticking with the homer pick though, Peralta busts out, they blow something like 15 leads instead of the 29 from last year and they split the 96 wins of 2011 and 83 wins of 2012 and take the division with 90 wins. Certainly a safer pick than the people picking the Pirates~.
Last edited by Ender on Wed May 01, 2013 11:50 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby wingman3110 » Wed May 01, 2013 11:41 am

Ender wrote:Looked at the splits and probably sitting Lincecum after all. He just isn't very good @Ari.


Eh I'm tossing him out there. He had 2 starts in the last two years there that weren't very good. Take out those and his numbers aren't too terrible there actually. I'm also in a 16 teamer so I can't really bench him.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 11:45 am

wingman3110 wrote:
Ender wrote:Looked at the splits and probably sitting Lincecum after all. He just isn't very good @Ari.


Eh I'm tossing him out there. He had 2 starts in the last two years there that weren't very good. Take out those and his numbers aren't too terrible there actually. I'm also in a 16 teamer so I can't really bench him.


Yeah both leagues I own him in I have daily rosters and can easily make up IP elsewhere with matchup plays. He is on my only start him when I really like the matchup list until he shows me more.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby kab21 » Wed May 01, 2013 11:58 am

For the Cardinals it will come down to how well the lesser half of their lineup hits (2B/SS/3B/CF) imo. If these guys end up being replacement level players it will hurt them quite a bit. You underrate their pitching. They have been lucky but Wainwright is a stud, Garcia and Lynn are underrated, Miller is a talented wild card and Westbrook is solid. The Brewers aren't even close to that. The Reds have a more balanced lineup and really deep pitching that is definitely a notch or two above the Brewers. The Brewers aren't a bad team but they need several things to break their way to win the Central imo.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby rjforlife » Wed May 01, 2013 12:08 pm

I'm a STL fan but my vote goes to Cincy. Their starters and bullpen are too solid and their lineup rivals either Milwaukee/STL. Mujica has been great but they are struggling just to get to him with Rosenthal shaky and Boggs/Zip abominations. They are going to lose too many close games again this year.


After being at the last Bailey vs. the Cardinals game, I'm leaving him on the bench. Sale and the Cashman going, and possibly the last start for Jordan Zimmerman on my team, as it looks like he may be shipped off for a very fat Panda bear.


Oh, and my opponent has Anibal against what looks like a very pathetic Twins team. I'm just rooting for him to not have over 10 k's and maybe the Twins can scratch out one run. I think a low era/whip, 6-8 Ks and a W are a foregone conclusion here.
Last edited by rjforlife on Wed May 01, 2013 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby Izenhart » Wed May 01, 2013 12:08 pm

I think people are underrating the Brewers big time. If healthy I see them as equals to CIN or STL. As ender says the 'breaks' are what will decide it, like how Baltimore won like 97 one run games last year. What if things go wrong for STL or CIN? Mujica has really calmed the STL worriers quickly. The only reason Henderson hasn't done the same is people expect Axford to be the next Marmol for some reason. I don't see it. Things have already gone wrong for MIL yet they have hung in, a sign that they could be better than most people think.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 12:33 pm

I think the Cardinals have the best pitching in the division, it is still pitching way out of their mind right now though. The team has a 2.15 ERA from the starters on the year. The one guy I worry about with the Cardinals is Garcia. I don't like the odds of his shoulder holding up. The offense is where I think the Cardinals fall a little flat mostly because it is just getting old. The Cardinals have tons of young talent they can work into the lineup but you just never know what you are going to get with rookies.
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Re: 5/1 Cheering, Venting & Hacktastic

Postby thedude » Wed May 01, 2013 12:43 pm

Ender wrote:Buchholz K rate is a complete fluke this year, sell him as fast as you can because it will all come crashing down. His Swinging Strike % is actually the lowest of his career so far.



Buchholz strikeouts will likely come down. Right now, he is getting tons on called strikes, with a 58.3 % zone swing percentage, (more called strikes, less pitches to swing at and miss).

Over the last year, 14-7 with 3.47 ERA and 3.96 FIP, and that includes a 2012 May when Buchholz was had a 5.60 ERA and 5.40 FIP.

I would not be shocked to see an ERA in the low threes for the year.
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