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Andrew Cashner in the rotation

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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 24, 2013 10:56 pm

Anything close to a 15.5% HR/FB is not sustainable for any starter




Mike Leake has a 14.5% in over 500 innings now.
Harden has had a 14% over his past 3 seasons now.
Brett Myers has a 14.5% in 1700 major league innings

etc.

Sorry I just don't view these types the way you do obviously. Same reason I never got burned by Liriano. If a guy gives up tons of HR and BBs a ton of guys it is very dangerous to start him in bad situations. If I were to own Cashner I would not be starting him every day. Just like I don't start Lincecum every game or Morrow etc.
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:09 pm

So in other words, even the three guys you cherry picked didn't maintain a HR/FB close to 15.5%.

Cashner has a grand total of 7 ML starts (SSS alert), so lets hold off on branding him as a HR prone pitcher. He was the complete opposite of that in his 48 minor league starts (mostly in AA/AAA) and pitches in the most friendly park in the majors. Did I mention the elite strikeout ability?
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:19 pm

14.5% isn't close to 15.5%? I mean you are really reaching.

Most of his minor league career was when he was old for the league and well minor league stats don't translate all that well in the first place. His K rate has been all over the place so hard to know if it really is going to be elite or just really good too. I mean if you are really going to point at the minor league stats he had a K/9 of 8.4 in the minors. This is all silly anyway, you aren't going to talk me into thinking he should be started every game. I think even the biggest supporters realize there is a lot of risk here as well as the reward, it just depends on how much risk you are personally willing to take with a guy. To me I don't like high risk pitchers unless they are in safe situations so they have a safety net. You obviously feel differently. Nothing in his stats suggest there isn't risk to him though.
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:32 pm

Cashner is that flyer that you pick hoping that things click. If things click then he would be absolutely awesome as your 6th-8th starter. But if he has a hot start and you lose a couple of guys to injuries or trades and he's your 3rd-5th best starter then you are in trouble for all of the reasons that Ender mentions. I also wouldn't want him in H2H leagues since I have my doubts that he will be pitching (or effective) late in the season.
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:52 pm

Ender wrote:14.5% isn't close to 15.5%? I mean you are really reaching.

Most of his minor league career was when he was old for the league and well minor league stats don't translate all that well in the first place. His K rate has been all over the place so hard to know if it really is going to be elite or just really good too. I mean if you are really going to point at the minor league stats he had a K/9 of 8.4 in the minors. This is all silly anyway, you aren't going to talk me into thinking he should be started every game. I think even the biggest supporters realize there is a lot of risk here as well as the reward, it just depends on how much risk you are personally willing to take with a guy. To me I don't like high risk pitchers unless they are in safe situations so they have a safety net. You obviously feel differently. Nothing in his stats suggest there isn't risk to him though.

No, 14.5% is not close to 15.5%. Not that it matters. We're looking at a tiny sample size here and comparing it to the absolute worst of the worst, the bottom 1% of HR rates, and they're not close. It's an exercise in futility. We really have no idea what his HR rate will be so it's silly to think 15.5% should be expected, in Petco of all places.

So yeah, certainly, there's lots of risk. And lots of potential. This is the kind of guy that can give a team a huge boost. Sure, sit him when hes on the road against the Rockies or Cardinals, I probably will too. But I'm more concerned with the 90% of starts that he'll make for my teams, rather than the 10% he won't. I bench most of my starters in Colorado anyway.
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:53 pm

Cashner is a spot starter IMO. I agree he is too injury prone and gives up too many walks. Long term he belongs in the bullpen.
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby Ender » Thu Apr 25, 2013 8:14 am

No, 14.5% is not close to 15.5%


Of course it is, especially with something like HR/FB. A difference of 1 HR every 100 FB is extremely close. There is no way you can say that multiple guys maintain a 14.5% but 15.5% is so absurdly high that nobody can sustain it.

But look I have 4 categories of pitchers myself.

1. Every day starters. These are guys that I will start in almost every matchup all year long. Sure I might sit Gallardo against STL and @Col but he is still an everyday starter. There are only like 30-40 of these in baseball.

2. Situational starter. These are guys that I don't want to drop ever, but I will start or sit them based on matchups. Guys like Lincecum, Morrow etc. Basically guys I have enough doubts about that I don't want to also have a bad matchup. In a league with no bench these guys slide up into the every day slot because you have no choice. In a weekly H2H league these are the guys I swap around on 2 start weeks. This is where I would probably put Cashner. This list goes a lot deeper depending on the league but probably like the top 75 or 80.

3. Spot Starter. Guys I will pick up for a matchup play and then as soon as there is a bad matchup I will just drop them because it won't bother me if someone else picks them up. These are safe low upside guys (usually low K) like Detwiler and high upside high risk guys like say Peralta and guys who excel at home etc. If Cashner gets off to a bad start this is where I will slot him, I won't spend a long time keeping him in #2.

4. Not worth anything. This is the rest of the starters that I feel are just too risky or a combination of risky and mediocre that even with a good matchup I don't really want to start. These guys can move into #3 on a temp basis if they are hot.
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby wingman3110 » Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:43 am

Some this hopefully will be settled Friday. Interested to see how he does against the Giants. One league I was going to wait to Friday and see how he does to pick him up but he was snagged this morning.
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Re: Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby wrveres » Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:01 am

wingman3110 wrote:Some this hopefully will be settled Friday. Interested to see how he does against the Giants. One league I was going to wait to Friday and see how he does to pick him up but he was snagged this morning.
he has been owned in all my leagues for most of the season.
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Andrew Cashner in the rotation

Postby wingman3110 » Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:21 am

^^^I'm assuming you are in 14 team or deeper league.

In my 16 team league he has been owned all year. I guess I should've said in a 12 team league he was just picked up.
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