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Dan Haren

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Re: Dan Haren

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:46 am

Skin Blues wrote:
kab21 wrote:Fangraphs says differently - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/princi ... mple-size/

The disturbing part is that K rate has dropped a lot and balls are getting hit hard a lot. These are facts. Maybe he can start throwing the ball down and to the corners of the plate but right now pitches are up and he is missing a lot of them right down the center of the plate. those pitches usually go a long way regardless of the rules of BAPIP.

wow 150 BF? If that's true then I take back what I said, but that seems insane. For hitters it takes more than a full season for LD% to stabilize (600 BIP), hard to imagine that you get the same reliability from a pitcher in 5 games. Also strange to use BF instead of BIP.


fangraphs says 150 PA/BF for both hitters and pitchers. yes, it should be BIP but that is a small detail.

Even if you leave out his currently high LD rate, the current version of Dan Haren completely sucks. His rebound this season is not based on being unlucky but rather on him pitching better. And it better be much better because everyone is hitting him currently.
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:58 am

I think that's more than a small exaggeration. His BB rate and velocity hves improved and K rate has declined. The K rate is definitely a concern, but it's not an all around mess for Haren.

And for hitters skills stabilizing, the guy that did the actual study - Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus, AKA Pizza Cutter - posted an updated table to correct his admittedly shoddy work from 2003 that kept getting quoted all over the internet. He has 600 BIP for hitters, so if Fangraphs has 150 BFP for hitters (which is about 100 BIP) then I would say they are quite wrong by a factor of about 6.
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Apr 27, 2013 3:14 pm

Haren had a pretty good game against the Reds. Maintained his elite K/BB rate (he's at an even 5.0 for the season) and his K/9 rose to 7.4 after this game. Still some question marks obviously but he's far from washed up. His stat line looks a lot better with a BABIP and LOB% close to league average.
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby Ender » Sat Apr 27, 2013 4:47 pm

This is a case where fangraphs is just clearly wrong. LD% is all over the place year after year after year and especially month to month, there is absolutely no way it stabilizes after 150 PA. There is some bad math going on there somewhere.
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Apr 27, 2013 4:56 pm

So what's the consensus on him? Buy Low? Sell Low? Leaving the LD% debate out of it, because that will spiral into something different entirely and we will lose the entire point here, if we haven't already. Guy's gotta be getting close to being a BS throw in for a trade, right? Should we be the ones throwing him in, or asking him to be thrown in?
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby Izenhart » Sat Apr 27, 2013 6:13 pm

bigh0rt wrote:So what's the consensus on him? Buy Low? Sell Low? Leaving the LD% debate out of it, because that will spiral into something different entirely and we will lose the entire point here, if we haven't already. Guy's gotta be getting close to being a BS throw in for a trade, right? Should we be the ones throwing him in, or asking him to be thrown in?


I honestly don't know. All I do know is that this last year and this year were the first two years I have ever owned him in my main fantasy league, so he has been under my personal microscope since last April. And last year he was my highest drafted pitcher that I ended up cutting (In June) and this year after watching every one of his starts (as I did last year when he was on my team) he has looked just as horrible. I am currently done with the pitcher known as Dan Haren and welcome any and all to start him in H2H agaisnt me. My main league is a league that counts walks against so theoretically he should have bonus value, yet I still dumped him 2 years in a row. I am done with him. Good bye. Serve your meatballs at a restaurant not at a MLB game tyvm. %-6
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:34 pm

bigh0rt wrote:So what's the consensus on him? Buy Low? Sell Low? Leaving the LD% debate out of it, because that will spiral into something different entirely and we will lose the entire point here, if we haven't already. Guy's gotta be getting close to being a BS throw in for a trade, right? Should we be the ones throwing him in, or asking him to be thrown in?

I don't think there's any point in selling him right now, because there isn't much of a market for a guy with a 6.29 ERA, and even people that look at peripherals like K/BB rates only typically believe in them when it's a guy they're trading, as opposed to trading for. Certainly if you can get him as a throw-in, then go for it. He's not going to be a game-changer but he could win his fair share of games and be above average, if unspectacular, in ERA/WHIP/Ks. In leagues I play in he's useful, but in a shallower league, like standard Yahoo/ESPN league then there could be a guy with higher upside on the waiver wire.
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby kab21 » Sun Apr 28, 2013 1:49 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Haren had a pretty good game against the Reds. Maintained his elite K/BB rate (he's at an even 5.0 for the season) and his K/9 rose to 7.4 after this game. Still some question marks obviously but he's far from washed up. His stat line looks a lot better with a BABIP and LOB% close to league average.


K/9 is deceptive when you are giving up hits to everyone. He has a 17% K rate which is less impressive than 7.4 K/9. I saw the recap of the game and every pitch they showed was right down the center of the plate. That's a good way to not walk anyone.
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:45 pm

I guess I'll defer to the pro scout here, and admit that a 5:1 K/BB ratio is easy to do. You just have to throw 88 MPH fastballs down the middle! Three of his 5 games he's K'd 5 batters while not allowing a walk... but this means nothing. This is good stuff, here. I'm curious if you scouted Haren prior to this season, or if you're just adding your input after seeing the results.
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Re: Dan Haren

Postby kab21 » Sun Apr 28, 2013 8:50 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I guess I'll defer to the pro scout here, and admit that a 5:1 K/BB ratio is easy to do. You just have to throw 88 MPH fastballs down the middle! Three of his 5 games he's K'd 5 batters while not allowing a walk... but this means nothing. This is good stuff, here. I'm curious if you scouted Haren prior to this season, or if you're just adding your input after seeing the results.


Whatever. Everyone can see what they want to see.
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