Dan Haren - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Dan Haren

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Dan Haren

Postby sjguzin » Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:26 pm

What happened to Dan Haren? He used to be one of my favorites to own and I now see him on the waiver wire in a 15 Team Roto League. I couldn't resist and had to pick him up, but is there something I blindly don't know about him?
sjguzin
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 126
(Past Year: 17)
Joined: 20 Jul 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:48 pm

Had injury issues last season and seems to still be bothering him. His back, I believe. He's been terrible. This is why there was no trade interest in him last season even though he had a one year option that was cheaper than a qualifying offer. That said, his velocity is actually higher than it's been for a few years so it's something that could sort itself out (as opposed to an elbow/shoulder issue). I'd definitely take a flier on him in a 15 team league, but I'd leave him on the bench until he shows he can string together some good starts.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3036
(Past Year: 531)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:53 pm

I don't even want him in my 24 tm league right now but he's stuck on my bench. Maybe he turns things around but he's just lobbing 88mph meatballs up there. The good news is that he isn't walking anyway.
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5292
(Past Year: 523)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Apr 23, 2013 10:16 pm

kab21 wrote:I don't even want him in my 24 tm league right now but he's stuck on my bench. Maybe he turns things around but he's just lobbing 88mph meatballs up there. The good news is that he isn't walking anyway.

He has made a living off of throwing 88 MPH fastballs. His velocity has actually ticked up this year compared to 2011 and 2012, his K/BB is 3.75 but his BABIP is .403 and LOB% is 62. Neither of those are in any way sustainable. I know he's being hit hard, but he isn't this bad. I only watched one game of his, and his splitter looked as good as ever. As bad as he's been I would bet on him turning it around and having a decent season with an ERA of about 4. That's obviously not great, but in most leagues it's rosterable, and there's a semi-decent chance he turns it around and puts up a low-3s ERA with a very low WHIP and above average Ks.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3036
(Past Year: 531)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:01 pm

He has never thrown hard but right now he's just throwing meatballs down the middle of the plate. And he is getting hit hard (26% LD rate) because of it. Additionally his K rate is down to 16% after being in the 20-25% in his prime.
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5292
(Past Year: 523)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:51 pm

LD% is about the most random stat you could imagine, and is almost never reliable or repeatable. I'm not saying he isn't throwing meatballs, but the results make it seem worse than it actually is. He's not walking anybody and he's throwing as hard as he has the past few years, so that makes me think it's something he can overcome. He's been a great pitcher at low velocity his whole career and seems to still have his control. I still have him nailed to the bench for now but I believe he can turn it around.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3036
(Past Year: 531)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:06 am

Fangraphs says differently - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/princi ... mple-size/

The disturbing part is that K rate has dropped a lot and balls are getting hit hard a lot. These are facts. Maybe he can start throwing the ball down and to the corners of the plate but right now pitches are up and he is missing a lot of them right down the center of the plate. those pitches usually go a long way regardless of the rules of BAPIP.
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5292
(Past Year: 523)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:14 am

kab21 wrote:Fangraphs says differently - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/princi ... mple-size/

The disturbing part is that K rate has dropped a lot and balls are getting hit hard a lot. These are facts. Maybe he can start throwing the ball down and to the corners of the plate but right now pitches are up and he is missing a lot of them right down the center of the plate. those pitches usually go a long way regardless of the rules of BAPIP.


I generally agree with this type of post but I have to agree with the other guy, LD% is just all over the map year to year, it seems completely unreliable. It is extremely rare that I see a player with consistent year to year LD%, probably the most rare of any batted ball outside of maybe IFFB%.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
(Past Year: 451)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:36 am

Ender wrote:
kab21 wrote:Fangraphs says differently - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/princi ... mple-size/

The disturbing part is that K rate has dropped a lot and balls are getting hit hard a lot. These are facts. Maybe he can start throwing the ball down and to the corners of the plate but right now pitches are up and he is missing a lot of them right down the center of the plate. those pitches usually go a long way regardless of the rules of BAPIP.


I generally agree with this type of post but I have to agree with the other guy, LD% is just all over the map year to year, it seems completely unreliable. It is extremely rare that I see a player with consistent year to year LD%, probably the most rare of any batted ball outside of maybe IFFB%.


It's okay to disagree with LD% but Haren's problems are also showing up in decreased K's. The summary of the game I saw from Haren was belt high fastball down the center of the plate. Those pitches get hit often and hard. Until he starts putting the ball elsewhere he is going to struggle. That's a fact and the main part of my argument.
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5292
(Past Year: 523)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dan Haren

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:39 am

kab21 wrote:Fangraphs says differently - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/princi ... mple-size/

The disturbing part is that K rate has dropped a lot and balls are getting hit hard a lot. These are facts. Maybe he can start throwing the ball down and to the corners of the plate but right now pitches are up and he is missing a lot of them right down the center of the plate. those pitches usually go a long way regardless of the rules of BAPIP.

wow 150 BF? If that's true then I take back what I said, but that seems insane. For hitters it takes more than a full season for LD% to stabilize (600 BIP), hard to imagine that you get the same reliability from a pitcher in 5 games. Also strange to use BF instead of BIP.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3036
(Past Year: 531)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Johnesmype, Skin Blues and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Apr. 25
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Miami at NY Mets
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Toronto
(7:05 pm)
Cincinnati at Atlanta
(7:07 pm)
Oakland at Houston
(7:10 pm)
Detroit at Minnesota
(7:35 pm)
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
(8:10 pm)
Chi Cubs at Milwaukee
(8:10 pm)
Tampa Bay at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Arizona at Arizona
(8:10 pm)
Philadelphia at Philadelphia
(8:15 pm)
LA Dodgers at LA Dodgers
(9:40 pm)
Colorado at Colorado
(10:10 pm)
Texas at Seattle
(10:10 pm)
Cleveland at San Francisco
(10:15 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact