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Starters you just can't trust to play every day

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Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby st3v3k4hn » Fri Apr 19, 2013 6:12 pm

I play in a weekly H2H league and I'm looking for players that are "set-em and forget-em" types. In other words, guys you can put in the lineup and expect good, consistent performance (barring injury or illness of course). I know that all guys will have slumps and strange splits, but there are some guys where these tendencies are so pronounced that you really have to manage them much more carefully than other guys. So, my goal here is to find the guys you can't trust every day, the guys with the weird streaks and splits, and to "black-list" them from my team next year.

I'm thinking of hitters like Ryan Howard who can't seem to hit lefties. Also, anyone in (or likely to end up in) a platoon situation. Not sure if I would include super-streaky guys like Josh Hamilton here, although as a weekly H2H guy I can tell you its no fun owning someone like Hamilton when he is cold. I'm even thinking high-end guys like Carlos Gonzales, great in Colorado but often not very good on the road, and not nearly as good against lefties (and of course he is also an injury risk!).

With pitchers I am thinking of guys like Tommy Milone (great at home but not good on the road) and Jhoulys Chacin (or pretty much any Rockies pitcher) who simply can't be trusted at home. Also guys like Justin Masterson who looks awesome sometimes but is wildly unpredictable and can't seem to reliably get out lefties.

So, just wondering if anyone else has other names to add, or better yet has a link to a website that does this already!? Also, anything worth noting other than lefty/righty and home/away splits?

Thanks
Steve
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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Apr 19, 2013 6:23 pm

I don't think you'll end up with enough players to fill your team and won't be drafted in the first 5 rounds of your draft.
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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby st3v3k4hn » Fri Apr 19, 2013 7:54 pm

bigh0rt wrote:I don't think you'll end up with enough players to fill your team and won't be drafted in the first 5 rounds of your draft.

I am not trying to come up with a list of guys to draft, I am trying to come up with the much smaller list of guys to avoid. Even if I only end up with a few names it will help. The question really is, are there any guys you would avoid if you were playing H2H and you knew you weren't going to be able to make frequent changes to account for splits and streaks? Is it crazy to avoid someone like CarGo in order to get more consistent, predictable results?? Even if a guy like CarGo is too high end to avoid, there are plenty of guys like Ike Davis and Anthony Rizzo that hit way worse against lefties and therefore might best be platooned or avoided in fantasy...
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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby OBPlover » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:21 pm

I think your approaching this issue from the wrong angle. It isn't all that bad when you have players with huge splits like Home/Road, Lefty/Righty, as long as you have the time to make lineup changes frequently. In fact, it can be quite good, so long as your league offers some bench space. You can get players with great splits at a bargain and therefore create some great production for a fraction of the price...works the same way in real life baseball.
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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby st3v3k4hn » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:46 pm

OBPlover wrote: ...so long as your league offers some bench space. You can get players with great splits at a bargain and therefore create some great production for a fraction of the price...works the same way in real life baseball.

Thats true, if (as you say) you have the time and the bench space. I don't. I generally have only 1 hitter on my bench, so I can't afford to have lefty specialists or other niche contributors on my bench...
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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby OBPlover » Sat Apr 20, 2013 3:01 am

Unfortunately, as mentioned, it will be nearly impossible to get a full roster of productive, consistent, non-injury prone players.
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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby Metropolitans » Sat Apr 20, 2013 1:19 pm

I own Carlos Gonzalez in a weekly h2h league and trust me, despite his home/away splits, you're not benching him regardless. He's got 3 of his 4 HRs AWAY from Coors Field and 2 of his 3 SBs on the ROAD as well... Allow other owners to avoid him and take him at a discount, you will not be disappointed... Also, its nice owning Wil Myers bc u must bench a couple guys per week anyways so u might as well make it a guy who will mash for a couple months... Oscar Tavaras comes to mind as well. You'll hate yourself if u bench a player like Josh Hamilton the week he decides to go absolute ape-shit and hit 5HRs-10RBIs-.500Avg... it seems like a good idea until it backfires completely in your face, trust me :-P
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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby st3v3k4hn » Sat Apr 20, 2013 2:48 pm

Metropolitans wrote:I own Carlos Gonzalez in a weekly h2h league and trust me, despite his home/away splits, you're not benching him regardless.

OK, that makes sense for high end guys like CarGo. But what about lower end guys, like Ike Davis? I drafted him as a Util hitter this year. I knew he was streaky and a slow starter; I didn't know he is among the worst hitters against lefties (at least according to this article: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/daily- ... on-splits/

So far this year, Ike has indeed started terribly, hitting as low as .114 with only 1 HR earlier this week. So bad that the Mets have started sitting him occassionally, which means that I also sat him. So of course he had a 2 HR game yesterday, on my bench. Now the problem is, do I assume he is heating up and start him? Normally I would, but he is facing Gio today, and Gio is a pretty darn good lefty. I guess in a Roto league you can leave him in all the time and just take the 30 HRs at the end of the year, but in H2H its a much bigger hit when he sits and or sucks against lefties. Plus, I hate having these decisions, where it seems like I always guess wrong! (For the record, I actually am going to leave Ike in today, but only because my only other hitter on the bench is Josh Willingham, and he hasn't played in a week due to illness and weird weather, and he faces Peavy who is no slouch.)

At any rate, I'm saying I would probably not draft Ike again knowing how bad he is vs lefties. I'm saying I will try to compile a list of guys who have a lopsided weakness like this and avoid them. Does that make sense now? And again, if so, would you avoid anything other than left/right splits and home/away splits (for pitchers like Millone)? Thanks again.

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Re: Starters you just can't trust to play every day

Postby Izenhart » Sat Apr 20, 2013 10:10 pm

Just draft an entire lineup of right handed hitters, and not have to worry about bad hitting lefties.
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