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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Ray Zorback » Mon Aug 05, 2013 1:22 pm

ayebatter wrote:
Ray Zorback wrote:Yahoo $20 pro league. The Greinke trade was proposed to me. The guy had been trying for weeks to get some saves. The Felix trade was a counter offer. I knew the guy really wanted Trumbo. He kept sending trades that had those 2 mixed in, so i countered with just those 2. On the Stanton trade I went to the guy who was last in pitching cats and made an offer selling the fact that he was last in pitching. I needed to replace the power lost on the Trumbo trade. All 3 trades in 3 days with 3 different guys. Crazy. I'm currently in 3rd place, hopefully this will give me the push I need the last 1/3 of the season.


Ray there's no need to justify your moves to these guys, this is like playing chess with a pigeon all he's gonna do is knock over all of the pieces take a dump on the board and strut around like he's won the game.



I wasn't trying to justify anything and I don't think anyone was arguing with me.

I was just telling everyone how the trades came about. I thought it was pretty wild. I needed SP and Grenke and Felix fell in my lap. Then I wanted to replace Trumbo and bam, I got Stanton in 1 day.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby deerayfan072 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 8:59 am

Is it time to try and deal Jeff Locke? His peripherals showed he couldn't keep it up and he seems to be regressing back now. Time to get as much as possible and cut bait?
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby rich101682 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 9:05 am

I'm wondering about Braun's value in keeper leagues. His owner is down on him a bit and I was wondering if trading him Strasburg straight up would be a good buy low. On one hand, you don't know how much of his performance was PED related and Strasburg is the younger player. On the other hand, it might be a chance to buy low on a guy that's been a top 3 player the last few years.

Thoughts?
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:38 am

deerayfan072 wrote:Is it time to try and deal Jeff Locke? His peripherals showed he couldn't keep it up and he seems to be regressing back now. Time to get as much as possible and cut bait?

A guy with a sub-7 K/9 and who will probably have a 4+ ERA and 1.3+ WHIP from here on out is a tough sell. It would have been wise to sell him when he was on fire, rather than after a 3 game stretch where he allowed 37 baserunners. He does a good job of limiting homeruns, but there's just not much upside.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:24 pm

rich101682 wrote:I'm wondering about Braun's value in keeper leagues. His owner is down on him a bit and I was wondering if trading him Strasburg straight up would be a good buy low. On one hand, you don't know how much of his performance was PED related and Strasburg is the younger player. On the other hand, it might be a chance to buy low on a guy that's been a top 3 player the last few years.

Thoughts?


Its pretty difficult to gauge what his ranking will be next year. I have a feeling spring training will determine the bulk of his value and whether he is still a top 3 player, a first rounder or less. I traded him away in a keeper league when he got suspended, am in first place and needed reinforcements for the final stretch. Got Mariano/Vmart for him.

As for Strasburg for Braun? I think its a good deal for the person getting Braun.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Ray Zorback » Fri Aug 09, 2013 3:33 pm

What do you guys think Pujols' value is in a keeper? It's a 14 team, keep 5. No fancy keeper values. I'm in a heated battle for first and could use some help. I've got 5 other guys I'd rather keep. I just don't know what to expect for him. Thanks.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Aug 09, 2013 3:45 pm

Ray Zorback wrote:What do you guys think Pujols' value is in a keeper? It's a 14 team, keep 5. No fancy keeper values. I'm in a heated battle for first and could use some help. I've got 5 other guys I'd rather keep. I just don't know what to expect for him. Thanks.

It'd be tough for me to not keep Pujols in a 14-team Keep 5 league. Either your team is incredibly stacked, or you're probably mis-valuing players. At any rate, I'd post the specific players in question in the DTKW Thread to get a full answer there. It's unlikely that you've got 5 guys who should be more valuable than Albert Pujols in 2014, though. It's easy to be sour on him right now, and while we understand he isn't The Machine he used to be, he's still likely one of the Top 5 players on all but very few 14-teamer teams.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby mac-unit » Fri Aug 09, 2013 6:29 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Ray Zorback wrote:What do you guys think Pujols' value is in a keeper? It's a 14 team, keep 5. No fancy keeper values. I'm in a heated battle for first and could use some help. I've got 5 other guys I'd rather keep. I just don't know what to expect for him. Thanks.

It'd be tough for me to not keep Pujols in a 14-team Keep 5 league. Either your team is incredibly stacked, or you're probably mis-valuing players. At any rate, I'd post the specific players in question in the DTKW Thread to get a full answer there. It's unlikely that you've got 5 guys who should be more valuable than Albert Pujols in 2014, though. It's easy to be sour on him right now, and while we understand he isn't The Machine he used to be, he's still likely one of the Top 5 players on all but very few 14-teamer teams.



He isn't anywhere near a lock to be a top 100 player next year let alone top 70. He WAS a great player. He's been in a 5 year decline in almost every category. And unless he finds a way to reverse age this offseason he's just going to be another year older. In a post-PED league, players are going to start falling off when normal people experience physical decline.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Aug 09, 2013 7:34 pm

mac-unit wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
Ray Zorback wrote:What do you guys think Pujols' value is in a keeper? It's a 14 team, keep 5. No fancy keeper values. I'm in a heated battle for first and could use some help. I've got 5 other guys I'd rather keep. I just don't know what to expect for him. Thanks.

It'd be tough for me to not keep Pujols in a 14-team Keep 5 league. Either your team is incredibly stacked, or you're probably mis-valuing players. At any rate, I'd post the specific players in question in the DTKW Thread to get a full answer there. It's unlikely that you've got 5 guys who should be more valuable than Albert Pujols in 2014, though. It's easy to be sour on him right now, and while we understand he isn't The Machine he used to be, he's still likely one of the Top 5 players on all but very few 14-teamer teams.



He isn't anywhere near a lock to be a top 100 player next year let alone top 70. He WAS a great player. He's been in a 5 year decline in almost every category. And unless he finds a way to reverse age this offseason he's just going to be another year older. In a post-PED league, players are going to start falling off when normal people experience physical decline.

This will be what, the first season of his entire career where he hasn't been a Top 100 player? A Top 50 Player even? Top 25? Maybe 2012 is the first time he didn't crack one of the latter two. I don't expect him to yield very early pick value in 2014, but I also don't expect him to bat .258, 63 points below his career average. I would be completely and utterly shocked to see him finish outside of the Top 100, and probably the Top 70 as well, provided he remains healthy. This will be the first season he's ever played fewer than 143 G, so he's not exactly a guy I peg as a health concern, regardless of age. If this is the general view on Albert, maybe he's a guy I'll actually be able to own in 2014, because I don't think he's quite ready to be put to pasture yet. There's a middle ground between being the otherworldly player he's been for a decade and what he is in 2013, and likely 2014. I'd be surprised to see him hit fewer than 30 HR. I'd be surprised to see him bat below .290. I'd be surprised to see him drive in fewer than 100. I'd be surprised to see him score fewer than 85 Runs. Even in his disappointing 2013 campaign, he approached or surpassed all of those figures. So, if what I consider to be a conservative and rough low projection of .290, 30, 100, 85 with plenty of room for more in every area isn't Top 70 material, then it isn't. I'm actually unsure of where that would slot. I just know that in my 14-teamer, I'd probably be hard pressed to find 5 guys I'd keep over Pujols for 2014 if there were no picks tied to rounds, etc.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Ray Zorback » Fri Aug 09, 2013 8:32 pm

Verlander. Sale. Moore. Kipnis. Cargo.

Maybe Grandy. Rios. Choo.

(League uses OPS & QS)
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