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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby mac-unit » Sat Jul 20, 2013 6:13 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Of course they do, but guys that sustain a high BABIP also typically have a lot of power (to hit the ball harder than average) or a lot of speed (to beat out infield hits). Carpenter really has neither. He's a good contact hitter like so many other middle infielders (Scutaro, the aforementioned Keppinger, Walker, etc) but having a guy's entire value hinge on an abnormally high BABIP, especially for his skillset, is not really something I want to rely on.

As for 2013 Marte vs 2012 Cespedes, Marte would be on a 162 game pace of 20 more HR+SB and 30 less R+RBI, and an identical average. And it's pretty clear that 20 HR+SB is worth more than 30 R+RBI. Also, like I mentioned, those are Cespedes' stats last year, and he's created a lot of data saying that those aren't accurate representations of who he is as a player. Most notably with his SB ability (5 for 11 so far), but also his large increase in K rate (18.9 to 23.5), and decrease in ISO/BABIP. I'm not saying this year is his true talent level, but you need to take everything into consideration when projecting a player's future performance, not just their best season.



Marte has a BABIP .364 and doesn't hit for alot of power. He's going to lose a step as he gets older so his keeper value can't rely on that. If Carpenter is no better than Keppinger due to a high BAPIP, there's no way Marte has more value than Cespedes. By the way, Carpenter has a higher ISO than Marte.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Jul 20, 2013 7:09 pm

mac-unit wrote:Marte has a BABIP .364 and doesn't hit for alot of power.

"...guys that sustain a high BABIP also typically have a lot of power (to hit the ball harder than average) or a lot of speed (to beat out infield hits)...

mac-unit wrote:Carpenter has a higher ISO than Marte.

Marte is on pace for over 50 stolen bases. Carpenter is on pace for less than 2.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby mac-unit » Sat Jul 20, 2013 8:14 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
mac-unit wrote:Marte has a BABIP .364 and doesn't hit for alot of power.

"...guys that sustain a high BABIP also typically have a lot of power (to hit the ball harder than average) or a lot of speed (to beat out infield hits)...

mac-unit wrote:Carpenter has a higher ISO than Marte.

Marte is on pace for over 50 stolen bases. Carpenter is on pace for less than 2.



And he's going to be 25. He won't be able to outrun all those infield hits for much longer. You lose speed before anything else. Anyway, his IFH% is pretty much the same as Carpenter and his inflated BABIP

Also he's on pace for 40 steals, not 50. Along with 20 less RBI and 10 less runs than Carpenter. You can take Marte over Cespedes all you'd like, but you won't win many leagues doing that. I'm done arguing with you.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Metropolitans » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:19 pm

any "Buy Low" hitters in a Points League that Counts Hits, BBs, and Ks (negative for hitters)...

guys like N. Aoki are golden, dude walks more than he K's! his owner wont budge though!

Any advice would be awesome!
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby TheTrith » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:42 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Because we're talking about the future, not the past. Carpenter has no power or speed. He's a decent option at 2B, sure. But so is Neil Walker, who will provide pretty much the same value from here on out. If people really think this high of Carpenter then he's a huge sell high. Didn't realize he had so much hype.

What?
Carpenter has just as much power as Marte. He is a better hitter than Marte. Both past, present, and future. And Carpenter stacks up much better against his peers at 2B, than Marte does against his peers in the OF. I dont understand what you are arguing about?
The only thing Marte provides that Carp doesnt, is speed, but hes not even a real life good base stealer. He gets caught nearly 30% of the time and if that continues dont expect him to runs as often in the future.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby TheTrith » Sat Jul 20, 2013 9:48 pm

And as for your argument of "Marte being on pace for 20 HR+SB more than Cespedes"... thats just nonsense and shows you awkwardly manipulating numbers. Like I already showed very clearly, Marte is on pace for FEWER HR in about 200 more plate appearances! The only thing hes on pace for that significantly betters Cespedes 2012 season is steals.

Pretty convenient that you gave Marte credit for a 162 game pace but not Cespedes, who had under 500 ABs last season.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:04 pm

TheTrith wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Because we're talking about the future, not the past. Carpenter has no power or speed. He's a decent option at 2B, sure. But so is Neil Walker, who will provide pretty much the same value from here on out. If people really think this high of Carpenter then he's a huge sell high. Didn't realize he had so much hype.

What?
Carpenter has just as much power as Marte. He is a better hitter than Marte. Both past, present, and future. And Carpenter stacks up much better against his peers at 2B, than Marte does against his peers in the OF. I dont understand what you are arguing about?
The only thing Marte provides that Carp doesnt, is speed, but hes not even a real life good base stealer. He gets caught nearly 30% of the time and if that continues dont expect him to runs as often in the future.

Right, Carpenter and Marte both don't have much much power. That's been established. You kind of just ignore Marte's 50 steals, as if it's offset by the positional scarcity of Carpenter being a second baseman. His 74% success rate isn't amazing, but it's decent. Certainly didn't stop Juan Pierre from averaging 50 stolen bases per 162 games through his age 35 season. And for those bad at math, 28 SB in 89 games prorates to 51, not 40. Not that it really changes anything.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby TheTrith » Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:44 pm

Nobody is disputing Marte's ability to crush all players in the discussion in steals.
But Cespedes and Carpenter are both better in enough in other areas that they all carry roughly equal value going forward.

This discussion began when you said that you'd rather Marte + Rodney over Cespedes + Carpenter.

And since Rodney is a 1 category player who hurts you in a couple categories, and may not even help you much longer in that single catergory, I fail to see how the argument for Marte/Rodney holds up.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby mac-unit » Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:05 am

Skin Blues wrote: And for those bad at math, 28 SB in 89 games prorates to 51, not 40. Not that it really changes anything.



True. Except the fact that the pirates have played 95 games. Not 89. So your math is wrong since it assumes Marte has played every game.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby kab21 » Sun Jul 21, 2013 6:15 am

mac-unit wrote:
kab21 wrote:If Carpenter has a .300 BAPIP nobody would be talking about him this season. .285, 9HR's and 1 SB. At least he wouldn't be killing me at 2B.


You realize some players just have higher BAPIP's right?


there isn't enough data yet to put Carpenter in the elite BAPIP category. I tend to be conservative and expect a young player to not sustain the elite BAPIP but perhaps that's just me.
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