2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Brainstorm » Fri Jul 19, 2013 2:46 pm

Anyone think you should buy on Mike Olt before this supposed trade goes down? Will he get everyday playing time for the Cubs?
Brainstorm
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar
Response Team
Posts: 527
(Past Year: 252)
Joined: 3 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby TheTrith » Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:28 pm

Wait, Carpenter = Keppinger on a hot streak???

Hahahahahah thats not even close. Did you forget the part where Carp leads the league in runs and has a great avg and obp? Hes easily a top-5 2b.
Rodney is not even a good closer, and migt not even be getting saves the entire rest of season.
TheTrith
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 386
(Past Year: 314)
Joined: 19 Jun 2013
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Jul 19, 2013 6:20 pm

Brainstorm wrote:Anyone think you should buy on Mike Olt before this supposed trade goes down? Will he get everyday playing time for the Cubs?

Even if he does I'm not convinced I want him in most redraft or even standard keeper leagues. He's been real unimpressive in AAA this season, striking out a TON (par for the course for him, albeit) and not really showing a ton of power (9 HR in 257 PA). I just don't know how helpful he will be this season, and despite 3B being shallow, aside from a potential early hot streak, the league would have to be pretty deep for me to feel any semblance of comfort in my lineup.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24812
(Past Year: 377)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby TheTrith » Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:40 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Marte is on a better pace this year than Cespedes was last year. Matt Carpenter also isn't worth much in a standard league so I'd easily take Rodney over him. Carpenter has no power or speed. He's basically Jeff Keppinger on a hot streak. Overall it's a decently balanced trade, but Marte is arguably the most valuable player in the deal, and if Rodney maintains the closer role in 2014 he'll be more valuable than either Carpenter or Martinez. But yeah... a lot depends on the keeper rules. Rodney and Cespedes could be expensive keepers and Martinez could be free, and that changes things.

Just to elaborate on the ridiculousness of that Marte/Carpenter/Keppinger discussion, lets look at 2013 production:

Carp --- 72 R, 9HR, 45 RBI, 41 XBH, .321/.394/.497
Marte - 59 R, 9HR, 28 RBI, 37 XBH, .291/.342/.462

Explain how Marte is the most valuable player in that deal, but Carpenter "isn't worth much in standard leagues"?
When you actually look at the numbers, that seems rather absurd, no?
Other than steals, Carpenter is flat out better across the board! And he plays (several) much more shallow positions.

Also explain how Marte is on a better pace than 2012 Cespedes? What Marte is actually on pace for is fewer HR, fewer RBI, lower AVG, lower OBP, and lower SLG. Marte is going to score more R and obviously have more steals. And hes also going to end up with about 200 more ABs than Cespedes last year, but still not measure up.

I would rather both Carpenter and Cespedes over Marte, and the more I think about it, the more lopsided the deal looks.
TheTrith
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 386
(Past Year: 314)
Joined: 19 Jun 2013
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Jul 20, 2013 2:23 am

Because we're talking about the future, not the past. Carpenter has no power or speed. He's a decent option at 2B, sure. But so is Neil Walker, who will provide pretty much the same value from here on out. If people really think this high of Carpenter then he's a huge sell high. Didn't realize he had so much hype.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3079
(Past Year: 174)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby kab21 » Sat Jul 20, 2013 3:04 am

If Carpenter has a .300 BAPIP nobody would be talking about him this season. .285, 9HR's and 1 SB. At least he wouldn't be killing me at 2B.
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5319
(Past Year: 181)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Metropolitans » Sat Jul 20, 2013 2:07 pm

Ray Zorback wrote:Anyone brave enough to buy low on Cain?

bought low a month or so ago :~(

league HEAVILY favors high-K Starters but so far, not so great...
14Team-Keeper
C Gattis
1B Votto
2B NFranklin
3B Frazier
SS Zobrist
OF Trout
OF Elsbury
OF Puig
Ut Crawford,Morales
BN LMartin,RMartin,Profar
SP Stras
SP Scherzer
RP Veras
RP Parnel
P Kimbrel
P Fernandez
P Archer
BN Turner,Nolasco,Gee,Pineda
DL Wandy
Metropolitans
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 181
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 17 Jun 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby J35J » Sat Jul 20, 2013 2:42 pm

kab21 wrote:If Carpenter has a .300 BAPIP nobody would be talking about him this season. .285, 9HR's and 1 SB. At least he wouldn't be killing me at 2B.


+1
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 421)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby mac-unit » Sat Jul 20, 2013 4:30 pm

kab21 wrote:If Carpenter has a .300 BAPIP nobody would be talking about him this season. .285, 9HR's and 1 SB. At least he wouldn't be killing me at 2B.


You realize some players just have higher BAPIP's right?
Image
mac-unit
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1059
(Past Year: 24)
Joined: 30 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Jul 20, 2013 5:04 pm

Of course they do, but guys that sustain a high BABIP also typically have a lot of power (to hit the ball harder than average) or a lot of speed (to beat out infield hits). Carpenter really has neither. He's a good contact hitter like so many other middle infielders (Scutaro, the aforementioned Keppinger, Walker, etc) but having a guy's entire value hinge on an abnormally high BABIP, especially for his skillset, is not really something I want to rely on.

As for 2013 Marte vs 2012 Cespedes, Marte would be on a 162 game pace of 20 more HR+SB and 30 less R+RBI, and an identical average. And it's pretty clear that 20 HR+SB is worth more than 30 R+RBI. Also, like I mentioned, those are Cespedes' stats last year, and he's created a lot of data saying that those aren't accurate representations of who he is as a player. Most notably with his SB ability (5 for 11 so far), but also his large increase in K rate (18.9 to 23.5), and decrease in ISO/BABIP. I'm not saying this year is his true talent level, but you need to take everything into consideration when projecting a player's future performance, not just their best season.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3079
(Past Year: 174)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Aug. 1
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Seattle at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Texas at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Colorado at Detroit
(7:08 pm)
LA Angels at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
San Francisco at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
NY Yankees at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Minnesota at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Toronto at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Milwaukee at St. Louis
(8:15 pm)
Kansas City at Oakland
(9:35 pm)
Pittsburgh at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Chi Cubs at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
Atlanta at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact