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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby J35J » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:24 pm

rjforlife wrote:K/9 isn't a fair stat either because Zimmerman pitches way more innings than those other guys because he is a better pitcher and pitches deeper into games, thus netting him more Ks. I guess if you have strict innings limits, this would hurt, but otherwise Ks are Ks. Have you watched him pitched much? I'd like to hear your take on his "stuff", maybe I'm seeing it all wrong.


It has nothing to do with him as a pitcher...in real life...he's as much of a stud as you'd like to see in real life..but the lack of K's is a concern in fantasy because ERA and Wins fluctuate more. He's not nearly the pitcher in fantasy that he is in real life...he is still good though, but selling high wouldn't be a bad thing either.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby rjforlife » Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:11 pm

J35J wrote:
rjforlife wrote:K/9 isn't a fair stat either because Zimmerman pitches way more innings than those other guys because he is a better pitcher and pitches deeper into games, thus netting him more Ks. I guess if you have strict innings limits, this would hurt, but otherwise Ks are Ks. Have you watched him pitched much? I'd like to hear your take on his "stuff", maybe I'm seeing it all wrong.


It has nothing to do with him as a pitcher...in real life...he's as much of a stud as you'd like to see in real life..but the lack of K's is a concern in fantasy because ERA and Wins fluctuate more. He's not nearly the pitcher in fantasy that he is in real life...he is still good though, but selling high wouldn't be a bad thing either.



If I could sell high, I would think about it, but what's his value? My worry is that because of people thinking about the Ks, his trade value will be much less than his value to a fantasy team, Ks aside.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:13 pm

rjforlife wrote:K/9 isn't a fair stat either because Zimmerman pitches way more innings than those other guys because he is a better pitcher and pitches deeper into games, thus netting him more Ks. I guess if you have strict innings limits, this would hurt, but otherwise Ks are Ks. Have you watched him pitched much? I'd like to hear your take on his "stuff", maybe I'm seeing it all wrong.

In fantasy, it's not about total K's (in Roto at least), it's about K/9. Because if you have a strict innings limit (every serious Roto League I've played in for the last 16 years has had one), then Zimmermann throwing deeper into games is actually a hindrance on the K category. You can look at K/Start if you wish, for H2H, but Zimm is going to lose out there. He hasn't pitched deeper into games because he's been dominant, over the rest, for the most part. Most of those guys are either young and having their innings limited, as Zimm himself also once was, or have spent time on the DL. He's thrown more innings than them because he's healthy (and as has been mentioned, there's some pretty rag pitchers in that group as well; underperformers and other guys I'd be dying to sell high on like Locke). Zimm happens to have thrown about 2 - 3 more starts than a good chunk of the list. You'll also notice that almost every name below Zimmermann on this list is considered to have been a pretty sizable bust thus far, as their K's are way down (and other ratios generally way up), or they're a guy who just isn't very good and probably should only be started in about 75-80% of their match ups. You're trying to say Zimm belongs in the conversation with true Aces, yet this list is comprised of the aforementioned guys who are struggling, guys who are pitching over their heads, and guys who just aren't very good. And even in that group, Zimmermann doesn't rise to the top.

K/Start
5.9 - Corey Kluber
5.8 - Alex Cobb
5.3 - Patrick Corbin
5.2 - Ian Kennedy
5.1 - Julio Teheran
5.0 - Jordan Zimmermann
4.8 - Kris Medlen
4.7 - Yovani Gallardo
4.6 - Jeremy Hellickson
4.5 - Paul Maholm
4.3 - Wade Miley

Not nearly as detrimental in H2H, where there's no innings cap. You lose less per start, and get to reset every week. But in Roto if Zimm slips even a little bit, he becomes a liability to your fantasy team because of his dreadful K/9. In real life he's a fine pitcher. But I figured we were talking fantasy this whole time. Thankfully he should get a good chunk of Mets and Marlins down the stretch, as well. Not that it will help him strike more guys out.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:16 pm

rjforlife wrote:
J35J wrote:
rjforlife wrote:K/9 isn't a fair stat either because Zimmerman pitches way more innings than those other guys because he is a better pitcher and pitches deeper into games, thus netting him more Ks. I guess if you have strict innings limits, this would hurt, but otherwise Ks are Ks. Have you watched him pitched much? I'd like to hear your take on his "stuff", maybe I'm seeing it all wrong.


It has nothing to do with him as a pitcher...in real life...he's as much of a stud as you'd like to see in real life..but the lack of K's is a concern in fantasy because ERA and Wins fluctuate more. He's not nearly the pitcher in fantasy that he is in real life...he is still good though, but selling high wouldn't be a bad thing either.



If I could sell high, I would think about it, but what's his value? My worry is that because of people thinking about the Ks, his trade value will be much less than his value to a fantasy team, Ks aside.

In H2H I'd probably hold onto him. He's far less detrimental, even if there's a Start Limit, as there is in my H2H League. In Roto, I would actually, surprisingly, be happy being on the wrong end of a 2-for-1, getting a bat that helped me where I needed, and an arm like Kluber or Teheran or Gallardo or Cobb.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby rjforlife » Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:22 pm

I guess our perspectives are far different because I play almost exclusively in H2H leagues, so the low K numbers really don't hurt that badly. And dogging the company he's in for Ks is somewhat pointless, because the company he's in for every other standard roto stat is the cream of the crop. He has one less than average category and three outstanding categories, for a net overall of being an ace. I don't expect him to win 22 games, but he could win 18-20 and keep the ERA and WHIP fairly close to their current values. Whatever the Ks may be, those numbers are stone cold ace numbers.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:30 pm

rjforlife wrote:I guess our perspectives are far different because I play almost exclusively in H2H leagues, so the low K numbers really don't hurt that badly. And dogging the company he's in for Ks is somewhat pointless, because the company he's in for every other standard roto stat is the cream of the crop. He has one less than average category and three outstanding categories, for a net overall of being an ace. I don't expect him to win 22 games, but he could win 18-20 and keep the ERA and WHIP fairly close to their current values. Whatever the Ks may be, those numbers are stone cold ace numbers.

If that's your expectation then I think you're in for a disappointing second half. If his ERA is under 3.00 the rest of the way I would be shocked, and I think that is the absolute best you can hope for (as he did last season, which even then is defying most analysis). He's more likely closer to a low to mid-3 ERA guy, which, when you pair it with a pedestrian K rate, make him a very unimpressive fantasy pitcher, even in H2H. Even if he maintains his incredible BB tendencies for this season, he's not going to keep his ERA and WHIP where they are while striking out so few batters. So really, what I would be looking to trade him for was any pitcher who I expected to also have a low-3 ERA for the remainder of the year, with higher strikeout potential, and maybe has an easy potential down the stretch slate of match ups. At the end of the year, Zimm could still look like he had a better season than whomever you trade him for (and it may be because he, in fact, did), but all that matters is what he does from today to the end of the season, and there's just very little, if anything, to indicate that he can keep pace with these ratios, given the rest of his profile as a pitcher.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby J35J » Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:08 pm

rjforlife wrote:I guess our perspectives are far different because I play almost exclusively in H2H leagues, so the low K numbers really don't hurt that badly.


I agree with this...pitching in Roto leagues is generally more important than in H2H leagues.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby hondo4mvp » Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:56 pm

rjforlife wrote:K/9 isn't a fair stat either because Zimmerman pitches way more innings than those other guys because he is a better pitcher and pitches deeper into games, thus netting him more Ks. I guess if you have strict innings limits, this would hurt, but otherwise Ks are Ks. Have you watched him pitched much? I'd like to hear your take on his "stuff", maybe I'm seeing it all wrong.


Ive seen most of JZimms games since he came up.His control is awesome,furthermore I think he has a higher K capacity.I think they're(Rizzo,Johnson) holding him back a bit and making him pitch to contact more than he'd like in order to keep his pitch count down so he's strong during the playoffs.

He's a smart guy and a soldier,so will do what he's told.I wish they'd turn him loose and let go for more K's.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:55 pm

hondo4mvp wrote:
rjforlife wrote:K/9 isn't a fair stat either because Zimmerman pitches way more innings than those other guys because he is a better pitcher and pitches deeper into games, thus netting him more Ks. I guess if you have strict innings limits, this would hurt, but otherwise Ks are Ks. Have you watched him pitched much? I'd like to hear your take on his "stuff", maybe I'm seeing it all wrong.


Ive seen most of JZimms games since he came up.His control is awesome,furthermore I think he has a higher K capacity.I think they're(Rizzo,Johnson) holding him back a bit and making him pitch to contact more than he'd like in order to keep his pitch count down so he's strong during the playoffs.

He's a smart guy and a soldier,so will do what he's told.I wish they'd turn him loose and let go for more K's.

It's a testament to Zimmermann to be 6th in the MLB in IP, and all the way down at 42nd in Pitches Thrown thus far in 2013 (Clayton Kershaw clocks in at #1 on both lists, in case anyone was wondering). He's been incredibly efficient, which is a good thing for the Natinals. It's also likely unsustainable. Last season Zimm was 41st in Total Pitches thrown, yet he was tied for 35th in Total Pitches. It's highly, highly, highly improbable for anybody to continue to pitch that efficiently, with those ratios, and not strike batters out. He threw 15.8 pitches per inning last year, and this year he's currently clocking in at 13.6, which may not seem like a big difference, but is drastically fewer (14.4 was the best mark for P/IP in 2012, by R.A. Dickey). Even Cliff Lee's historically efficient 2011 with his 10.28 K/BB only registered at 14.0 P/IP. Last time someone went sub-14 was 2009 where teammates Chris Carpenter and Joel Pineiro, of all people, went 13.9 and 13.8, respectively. Before that, 2008, Greg Maddux with 13.2. And unless Zimmermann starts getting the strike calls that Maddux got, there's next to zero chance he doesn't suffer regression in the second half that makes him an unbelievably strong candidate to sell high on.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby footballisbetter.com » Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:12 pm

Is JJ Hardy a sell high? Would anyone buy high on him?

He is on pace for .254 BA, 31 HRs and 93 RBI. Which is well above his projections and 3 year average.
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