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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby OBPlover » Mon May 13, 2013 1:59 am

Ender wrote:Sure but if he is a .280 hitter and he is a 35 HR guy and he isn't going to steal anymore is he really better than Adrian Beltre? He is a mid to late 2nd round guy. When he was a 1st round guy he was Prince Fielder (the good AVG version) with 10 steals, now he is Andrian Beltre with less AVG and a tiny bit more power.

The little things really matter, he has lost his legs. He doesn't get as many infield hits, he strikes out more so the AVG is down, he doesn't steal as much. They are small things but they do chip away at his value. His value was always late 1st round with upside for more, now it is late 2nd round with upside for more.


Well hold on now, are we arguing if Longo is worthy of a (late) 1st round draft pick or are we arguing if Longo is better than Adrian Beltre? Perhaps there's an argument for Beltre as a late 1st round pick. I wouldn't do that personally, but I could see someone else taking that chance this year, with all the risks on anyone else.

Anyways, yes, little things matter...but you know what matters more than little things? BIG THINGS. :-) And the big thing is that AB is 34 years old. He's no spring chicken in baseball years. You got a traditional hacker, getting on in years..his bat speed will slow down and his ability to foul off tough pitches will wain. The time will come when AB will fall off a cliff. It might not be this year, but it is coming. Longo is 27. That's pretty huge. I'd agree that Beltre plays in a much better hitter's park, but I don't know if that makes up all the difference.

As for his stolen bases, I don't see the big deal. He hasn't had a meaningful number of steals since 2010. if you take Longo, you aren't taking him for stolen bases, but for his projected 35-40 HRs and 110+ RBIs and 100 or so Runs scored and a .290-.300+ batting average. That would make him worthy of a 1st round pick.
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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon May 13, 2013 8:33 am

rjforlife wrote:Yes, I would be shocked, there is no way that he hits 37 HR when his career high in 157 games is 33. Secondly,in his last 243 games, he has stolen 5 bases and been caught 5 times, so projecting 8 is ludicrous. He a damn good player, but he is honestly no better than Adrian Beltre, or really close to him in most categories.


1) don't get me wrong, those numbers are not what I'm projecting, they are just the high end of what is possible. He's a smart base runner. He didn't steal 15 in 2010 because he was super fast that year. It was just that the opportunity presented itself an unusually high number of times an he took advantage.

2) As far as the hr goes, that 33 in 157 games, that was in his age 23 season. I'm willing to make the assumption that the power potential has grown over the past 4 years. I'm also willing to make the assumption that he did not peak in his age 23 season but, instead, was and is still developing as a player.

3) lastly, I don't know if he has been hot over the first 37 games or if he's just longoria, but he is on pace right now for 38, so there's that. And, he was on pace for 36 through 74 games last year.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Skin Blues » Mon May 13, 2013 9:05 am

OBPlover wrote:As for his stolen bases, I don't see the big deal. He hasn't had a meaningful number of steals since 2010. if you take Longo, you aren't taking him for stolen bases

This is the same argument people use against Goldy. That you shouldn't consider his steals because he's a first baseman, and you don't draft a first baseman for speed. Do these same people ignore Tulo's HR totals because he's a SS, and you don't draft them for power, only his steals matter? Of course not. The only reason Longoria was ever drafted as a first rounder was the potential for 15+ stolen bases. Without that, and without the likelihood of hitting .300 he's simply not first round material anymore. You'll basically get from him what you get from Anthony Rizzo/David Ortiz/Edwin Encarnacion. He's played over his head for a month but that doesn't change the player that he is. He won't keep up a .376 BABIP. He could hit 35 HR, but so could the 3 guys I just mentioned.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Ray Zorback » Mon May 13, 2013 10:23 am

I'm thinking of selling high on Marte. Thoughts?

I have Grandy coming off the DL to go with Beltran, Jackson, Gardner, Morse in a 14 teamer.

I need pitching. What level SP should I expect to get?
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Skin Blues » Mon May 13, 2013 10:42 am

Probably somebody along the lines of Latos/Zimmermann/Samardzija. I don't know if I'd sell high on Marte though, I really like him.
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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon May 13, 2013 12:42 pm

Skin Blues wrote:You'll basically get from him what you get from Anthony Rizzo/David Ortiz/Edwin Encarnacion. He's played over his head for a month but that doesn't change the player that he is. He won't keep up a .376 BABIP. He could hit 35 HR, but so could the 3 guys I just mentioned.



Sure, he won't keep up the .376 Babip. Then again, no one is suggesting he'll bat .333 all season either. They'll both regress. But, how far? Given this early season bump, if you give him a .315 babip with a .290 avg the rest of the way, where do his final numbers finish?
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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon May 13, 2013 12:54 pm

Also, he's batting .304 over his last 100 games (2012 & 2013)
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby OBPlover » Mon May 13, 2013 1:44 pm

Skin Blues wrote:As for his stolen bases, I don't see the big deal. He hasn't had a meaningful number of steals since 2010. if you take Longo, you aren't taking him for stolen base .This is the same argument people use against Goldy. That you shouldn't consider his steals because he's a first baseman, and you don't draft a first baseman for speed.


No that's not what's being argued. Goldy's SB numbers were a likely added benefit since he did show some signs of speed (on pace for maybe 10-15 steals) and stole 18 last year with no leg injury issues. But Longo only stole a few the year before and everyone knew given his injuries, Longo wasn't going to be stealing bases.


The only reason Longoria was ever drafted as a first rounder was the potential for 15+ stolen bases. Without that, and without the likelihood of hitting .300 he's simply not first round material anymore.


He has the potential to hit .300 since his career average is .280 despite nagging injuries over the years. How far away is .300 from .280? Not that different. Now that he's 27 and in his prime, .300 is quite possible. You draft Longo because, iff you extrapolate his stats from the past 2 years, you are looking at some thing like a .290, 35-40 Hrs 110-120 Rbis. And the upside on Longo (if you expect him to hit a new level due to his age) is .300 -40 HR-120 Rbi's, which easily makes him First round worthy.

You'll basically get from him what you get from Anthony Rizzo/David Ortiz/Edwin Encarnacion. He's played over his head for a month but that doesn't change the player that he is. He won't keep up a .376 BABIP. He could hit 35 HR, but so could the 3 guys I just mentioned.


EE had 13 Sbs last year so he your theory is flawed. You don't take EE first round because he never hit the way he did in 2012 in the past and he may have had a career year. David Ortiz is old, out of shape and is a major injury risk, much more so than Longo and Rizzo only had 1/2 season in the majors.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby The Thrill » Mon May 13, 2013 6:16 pm

Ray Zorback wrote:I'm thinking of selling high on Marte. Thoughts?

I have Grandy coming off the DL to go with Beltran, Jackson, Gardner, Morse in a 14 teamer.

I need pitching. What level SP should I expect to get?


This link might (maybe) help you. Some of those trades are a little crazy, but if you can find someone willing to pay the higher price, that's great!

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/players/trades/1741213/all/all/all

I do think it's a good idea to trade him now while his value is high.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby fast dogs » Mon May 13, 2013 6:50 pm

Ray Zorback wrote:I'm thinking of selling high on Marte. Thoughts?

I have Grandy coming off the DL to go with Beltran, Jackson, Gardner, Morse in a 14 teamer.

I need pitching. What level SP should I expect to get?


with Jackson on the DL & Beltran yet to get there so far; I'd be darn sure you were getting a good enuf arm when you move him. could be you wait a couple weeks now
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