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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby lastingsgriller » Sun May 12, 2013 10:23 am

Mr November wrote:I'm thinking of taking advantage of Longoria's hot start and sell him before he gets hurt (again). I'm really struggling in pitching, what type of pitcher should I be looking at? Wainwright type?

Don't be silly. If healthy, longoria is easily a first rd talent. You can't predict injury, don't try. You'll be kicking yourself if longo ends up a top 3 player in fantasy baseball, which is very possible. If you absolutely have to move him, I would take no less than verlander, kershaw, Felix, or strasburg. Anything less and it's not worth the risk of missing out on what could be.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby abrage22 » Sun May 12, 2013 1:36 pm

Would you buy low on Kemp if given the chance?
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby rich101682 » Sun May 12, 2013 1:42 pm

abrage22 wrote:Would you buy low on Kemp if given the chance?


Excellent question. I'd like to hear too, especially in a keeper league.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Ender » Sun May 12, 2013 2:33 pm

Mr November wrote:I'm thinking of taking advantage of Longoria's hot start and sell him before he gets hurt (again). I'm really struggling in pitching, what type of pitcher should I be looking at? Wainwright type?


I like the idea because Longoria isn't a 1st round guy even if he stays healthy. I think you have to shoot for the top and go after a Verlander though. Longo was drafted in the same area as Verlander/Kershaw and has played over his head so you have to shoot for the top.

The key things to look at is he has 0 SB so he is not going to be running anymore. He has a BABIP 70 pts higher than his career and his K% and BB% aren't better than before so while it looks like the .300+ AVG is back it is likely just a fluke. Longoria is a .280 hitting power hitter in a mediocre lineup, that isn't a 1st round guy unless he hits 40+. This version of Longoria is not worth a 1st round pick even without the injury risk involved, he just isnt' the same player he was when he came up.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby OBPlover » Sun May 12, 2013 3:56 pm

I'm in a league where Longo was just traded straight up for CC Sabathia.

I thought that was a ripoff and Longo was easily worth more than CC sabathia. Ironically, the guy trading CC was known to be a very "Shrewd" trader and has done some very shady trades over the years.

I like Longo..calling him out as "injury prone" seems a bit harsh to me at this point in his career. It's not like he hurt himself in the weight room last year. The Rays' lineup may suck...but the front 4 of Jennings..Joyce (vs LH) Zobby and Longo is solid. He's going to get enough RBI opportunities to break 100.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby Ender » Sun May 12, 2013 4:49 pm

Sure but if he is a .280 hitter and he is a 35 HR guy and he isn't going to steal anymore is he really better than Adrian Beltre? He is a mid to late 2nd round guy. When he was a 1st round guy he was Prince Fielder (the good AVG version) with 10 steals, now he is Andrian Beltre with less AVG and a tiny bit more power.

The little things really matter, he has lost his legs. He doesn't get as many infield hits, he strikes out more so the AVG is down, he doesn't steal as much. They are small things but they do chip away at his value. His value was always late 1st round with upside for more, now it is late 2nd round with upside for more.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby cordscords » Sun May 12, 2013 6:37 pm

rich101682 wrote:
abrage22 wrote:Would you buy low on Kemp if given the chance?


Excellent question. I'd like to hear too, especially in a keeper league.


He's on a 10 game hitting streak. He should see an uptick in power soon, but not at '11'-12 levels. Shoulder to blame.
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby bayside » Sun May 12, 2013 6:51 pm

Im a Kemp owner in a 20 team Dynasty league and Im not even thinking about selling him now. Hes pretty much at his lowest value he can possibly reach.
Its nice to see him running, hes been getting on base the past couple weeks, and the power can only improve.
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2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby lastingsgriller » Sun May 12, 2013 10:33 pm

Ender wrote:Sure but if he is a .280 hitter and he is a 35 HR guy and he isn't going to steal anymore is he really better than Adrian Beltre? He is a mid to late 2nd round guy. When he was a 1st round guy he was Prince Fielder (the good AVG version) with 10 steals, now he is Andrian Beltre with less AVG and a tiny bit more power.

The little things really matter, he has lost his legs. He doesn't get as many infield hits, he strikes out more so the AVG is down, he doesn't steal as much. They are small things but they do chip away at his value. His value was always late 1st round with upside for more, now it is late 2nd round with upside for more.



First, lets just start by a accepting the premise that longo is a .280, 33-35 hr guy. Even with that, he is a mid-upper 2nd rd type. you aren't giving that for wainwright (or, I wouldn't anyways.) that is still in the big 4 range.

But, with that said, I'm not ready to accept the premise that is is no better than Adrian beltre. First of all, lets stop with the advanced stats suggesting he's playing over his head. It's been a month. +last years two months equals nothing but small sample size.

Longoria has been nothing but a devastating hitter while on the field. I mean, if he's healthy all year, is it completely out of line to expect a .930+ ops? Not really. Additionally has has always been a remarkably efficient RBI machine. Many people chalk "clutch hitting" up to luck. I don't. Additionally you assume 0 steals or something close because he doesn't have any steals yet? Come on, it's been a month.

Further more, Wil Myers will be called up in a month or less. He will certainly bolster their lineup.

If longoria plays 150 games, are you really gonna be shocked by .300, 100 r, 37 hr, 120 RBI, 8 steals, .930 ops ?
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Re: 2013 Buy Low/Sell High thread

Postby rjforlife » Mon May 13, 2013 12:48 am

Yes, I would be shocked, there is no way that he hits 37 HR when his career high in 157 games is 33. Secondly,in his last 243 games, he has stolen 5 bases and been caught 5 times, so projecting 8 is ludicrous. He a damn good player, but he is honestly no better than Adrian Beltre, or really close to him in most categories.
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