Ender wrote:Sure but if he is a .280 hitter and he is a 35 HR guy and he isn't going to steal anymore is he really better than Adrian Beltre? He is a mid to late 2nd round guy. When he was a 1st round guy he was Prince Fielder (the good AVG version) with 10 steals, now he is Andrian Beltre with less AVG and a tiny bit more power.
The little things really matter, he has lost his legs. He doesn't get as many infield hits, he strikes out more so the AVG is down, he doesn't steal as much. They are small things but they do chip away at his value. His value was always late 1st round with upside for more, now it is late 2nd round with upside for more.
First, lets just start by a accepting the premise that longo is a .280, 33-35 hr guy. Even with that, he is a mid-upper 2nd rd type. you aren't giving that for wainwright (or, I wouldn't anyways.) that is still in the big 4 range.
But, with that said, I'm not ready to accept the premise that is is no better than Adrian beltre. First of all, lets stop with the advanced stats suggesting he's playing over his head. It's been a month. +last years two months equals nothing but small sample size.
Longoria has been nothing but a devastating hitter while on the field. I mean, if he's healthy all year, is it completely out of line to expect a .930+ ops? Not really. Additionally has has always been a remarkably efficient RBI machine. Many people chalk "clutch hitting" up to luck. I don't. Additionally you assume 0 steals or something close because he doesn't have any steals yet? Come on, it's been a month.
Further more, Wil Myers will be called up in a month or less. He will certainly bolster their lineup.
If longoria plays 150 games, are you really gonna be shocked by .300, 100 r, 37 hr, 120 RBI, 8 steals, .930 ops ?