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How good can Jean Segura be?

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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby West » Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:58 pm

Pretty good.
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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:11 pm

I will be the voice of dissent in this thread. I don't believe in the power at all. I think you are looking at a 5 HR hitter that might get lucky and hit 10 once in his career. He is one of the most prolific GB hitters in the majors and his best season in the minors was 10.

Once his BAPIP comes back to earth he is a .285+ hitter and because he doesn't walk that should limit his OBP to the .320's (maybe .330's). that might be good enough to stay at the top of the order so he can rack up some SB's and R's. Not a bad option at SS and an excellent value in this year's draft but he's a classic 3 category SS that you draft because he can steal a lot of bases.
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How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby lastingsgriller » Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:53 pm

OBPlover wrote:Well it's an OPS league, so OBP counts for a lot. Zobby is like the second best SS behind Tulo and Zimm should come back and hit eventually. I might need to wait until ZImm comes back later this week and shows signs of life.

Wright and Zobrist and you wouldn't jump at that deal if you had a terrible SS?

Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on OBP? Do you think it's a good stat category?
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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby Ender » Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:16 pm

kab21 wrote:I will be the voice of dissent in this thread. I don't believe in the power at all. I think you are looking at a 5 HR hitter that might get lucky and hit 10 once in his career. He is one of the most prolific GB hitters in the majors and his best season in the minors was 10.

Once his BAPIP comes back to earth he is a .285+ hitter and because he doesn't walk that should limit his OBP to the .320's (maybe .330's). that might be good enough to stay at the top of the order so he can rack up some SB's and R's. Not a bad option at SS and an excellent value in this year's draft but he's a classic 3 category SS that you draft because he can steal a lot of bases.


You are simply wrong here, he definitely profiles as a 15ish HR guy at some point in his career. He isn't a slap hitter like an Andrus at all, he drives the ball. I mean it might not be for 3 or 4 years but it will come at some point, especially if he stays in that friendly park.
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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:51 pm

Ender wrote:You are simply wrong here, he definitely profiles as a 15ish HR guy at some point in his career. He isn't a slap hitter like an Andrus at all, he drives the ball. I mean it might not be for 3 or 4 years but it will come at some point, especially if he stays in that friendly park.


He might drive the ball but he doesn't elevate it much. Line drives are awesome but they don't become HR's very often. And groundballs never become HR's.
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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby Ender » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:06 pm

kab21 wrote:He might drive the ball but he doesn't elevate it much. Line drives are awesome but they don't become HR's very often. And groundballs never become HR's.


No I mean he drives the ball as in puts power behind it. It is likely more gap doubles power but those types end up as 15 HR types most of the time. I think you are putting way too much stock into his short stint last year where he was clearly overmatched early and pounding everything into the ground. He had an ISO over .100 every year in the minors and it was over .140 at 4 different stops. He profiles at the low end as Erik Aybar (only in a better park) who is about a 10 HR guy in a full season but there is true 15+ HR power in there somewhere in the future. I have watched this guy every day for 4 months now, he is not a 5 HR guy if you just watch him play, there is no way.

If I had to pick either topping out at 10 HR or hitting 20+ HR I'd pick the 20+ HR at some point side. I think the reality is probably consistently in the 10-15 range but certainly not 5. Just watch him swing for a few games, this isn't a guy trying to slap the ball somewhere to get a single, he is trying to drive the ball for extra bases, the approach itself is really easy to see.
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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby OBPlover » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:57 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:
OBPlover wrote:Well it's an OPS league, so OBP counts for a lot. Zobby is like the second best SS behind Tulo and Zimm should come back and hit eventually. I might need to wait until ZImm comes back later this week and shows signs of life.

Wright and Zobrist and you wouldn't jump at that deal if you had a terrible SS?

Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on OBP? Do you think it's a good stat category?


I prefer when there is one column for OPS then when the league uses SLG/OBP. The latter format tends to favour power hitters as quite a few of them walk, which means doubling up on two categories.
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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby bayside » Wed May 01, 2013 12:23 am

OBPlover wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:
OBPlover wrote:Well it's an OPS league, so OBP counts for a lot. Zobby is like the second best SS behind Tulo and Zimm should come back and hit eventually. I might need to wait until ZImm comes back later this week and shows signs of life.

Wright and Zobrist and you wouldn't jump at that deal if you had a terrible SS?

Out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on OBP? Do you think it's a good stat category?


I prefer when there is one column for OPS then when the league uses SLG/OBP. The latter format tends to favour power hitters as quite a few of them walk, which means doubling up on two categories.

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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby West » Wed May 01, 2013 6:10 am

Have to whole heartedly agree with Ender. He really does drive the ball well and punishes mistakes. Saw his first HR of the year and it was to dead center, an absolute bomb.
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Re: How good can Jean Segura be?

Postby Ender » Wed May 01, 2013 9:46 am

This doesn't mean anything or add anything to the discussion really, but I thought it was still funny.

Jean Segura = 1.5 fWAR in April (.367/.418/.567)

Mike Trout + Albert Pujols + Josh Hamilton + Peter Bourjos + Howie Kendrick + Erick Aybar + Alberto Callaspo + Chris Iannetta = 1.4 fWAR in April
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