kab21 wrote:He might drive the ball but he doesn't elevate it much. Line drives are awesome but they don't become HR's very often. And groundballs never become HR's.
No I mean he drives the ball as in puts power behind it. It is likely more gap doubles power but those types end up as 15 HR types most of the time. I think you are putting way too much stock into his short stint last year where he was clearly overmatched early and pounding everything into the ground. He had an ISO over .100 every year in the minors and it was over .140 at 4 different stops. He profiles at the low end as Erik Aybar (only in a better park) who is about a 10 HR guy in a full season but there is true 15+ HR power in there somewhere in the future. I have watched this guy every day for 4 months now, he is not a 5 HR guy if you just watch him play, there is no way.
If I had to pick either topping out at 10 HR or hitting 20+ HR I'd pick the 20+ HR at some point side. I think the reality is probably consistently in the 10-15 range but certainly not 5. Just watch him swing for a few games, this isn't a guy trying to slap the ball somewhere to get a single, he is trying to drive the ball for extra bases, the approach itself is really easy to see.