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Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby kab21 » Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:17 pm

Ender wrote:The Marlins scored 3.76 R/G last year and the Astros scored 3.60 as the bottom two teams in baseball. The Cubs scored 3.78 R/G. If the Marlins dip to even 3.50 R/G it just isn't going to be a huge drop for just one player. That would be 30ish runs for the entire team and maybe like 8-10 fewer for Stanton. If he plays a few more games he makes up those stats. I expect about the same line he had last year in maybe a few more AB. I think he is just a slow starter, I mean he looked bad in the WBC too.
Believe it or not but that team relied on lucky performances and significantly downgraded at several positions.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:20 pm

According to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, the Mets "continue to monitor" Giancarlo Stanton.
It's a safe assumption that many other teams are doing the same. To acquire Stanton from the Marlins, the Mets would surely have to fork over top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler and top catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, and maybe even one additional youngster. Martino also believes that the Mets have looked into acquiring star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from the Rockies.

It's somewhat hard to believe some contender doesn't step up and take Stanton off of the Marlins hands at some point this season.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby OBPlover » Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:15 pm

In 2010 and 2011 the Jays had the 9th best offense in the majors. It's fair to say the Marlins will be well below that. The lineup is almost entirely bereft of major league caliber hitters. They will have to fight tooth and nail to outscore the Astros.


The Jays were 9th best in offense...but 6th in the AL alone. 5 runs separated the middle 3 teams (6th,7th,8th). So the Jays were pretty much right smack in the middle of the AL in offense and that was WITH BAUTISTA...who had the surprising 54 HRs -1.000 OPS.

The Jays leadoff hitters combined for a miserabke .243/.313/.385 slash line
The Jays #2 hitters combined for a slightly better .241/.307/.429 slash line

Without Bautista, the Jays would have probably finished no higher than 10th in the AL in runs scored.

Now I'm not saying that the Marlins are the 27 Yankees or anything. But Juan Pierre's career OBP is .345. The N#2 hitter should be able to come up with an OBP better than .307. There is only one reason to explain Stanton's slow start...and that's Stanton himself.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:18 pm

I would gladly have the Mets trade d'Arnaud and Wheeler both for Stanton, from purely a performance perspective. However, Stanton has 3 years of Arbitration ahead of him, and will probably want to sign an extension an- ahh hell I can't even get into it. Bring that guy to Citi Field please, so I can actually have some excitement when I watch the team play, offensively.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby wrveres » Thu Apr 11, 2013 7:44 pm

bigh0rt wrote:I would gladly have the Mets trade d'Arnaud and Wheeler both for Stanton, from purely a performance perspective. However, Stanton has 3 years of Arbitration ahead of him, and will probably want to sign an extension an- ahh hell I can't even get into it. Bring that guy to Citi Field please, so I can actually have some excitement when I watch the team play, offensively.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Apr 11, 2013 9:44 pm

OBPlover wrote:
In 2010 and 2011 the Jays had the 9th best offense in the majors. It's fair to say the Marlins will be well below that. The lineup is almost entirely bereft of major league caliber hitters. They will have to fight tooth and nail to outscore the Astros.


The Jays were 9th best in offense...but 6th in the AL alone. 5 runs separated the middle 3 teams (6th,7th,8th). So the Jays were pretty much right smack in the middle of the AL in offense and that was WITH BAUTISTA...who had the surprising 54 HRs -1.000 OPS.

The Jays leadoff hitters combined for a miserabke .243/.313/.385 slash line
The Jays #2 hitters combined for a slightly better .241/.307/.429 slash line

Without Bautista, the Jays would have probably finished no higher than 10th in the AL in runs scored.

Now I'm not saying that the Marlins are the 27 Yankees or anything. But Juan Pierre's career OBP is .345. The N#2 hitter should be able to come up with an OBP better than .307. There is only one reason to explain Stanton's slow start...and that's Stanton himself.

Miami is still in the NL and still has a pitcher in their lineup instead of a DH. And Miami's 29th place offense from last season included Stanton, just like the Jays' 9th place offense from 2010/11 included Bautista. You just can't polish this turd, especially when the offensive saviour you keep pointing to is none other than 35 year career 86 wRC+ Juan Pierre (it's not 1998; there exist offensive stats that are more important than OBP).

Of course the crappy team isn't to blame for Stanton not hitting, but it will explain his diminished R/RBI relative to his hitting ability. Worst case scenario he just phones it in and puts up garbage numbers. But considering he starts qualifying for arbitration next season I'm going to assume he has enough motivation to keep being the #1 home run hitter in baseball.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby OBPlover » Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:39 pm

Miami is still in the NL and still has a pitcher in their lineup instead of a DH.


Yes, which is why you can't compare AL and NL offenses..I don't see your point here.
And Miami's 29th place offense from last season included Stanton, just like the Jays' 9th place offense from 2010/11 included Bautista.


Yeah and Bautista was healthy all season where as Stanton missed about 1/3 of the season due to injury.

You just can't polish this turd, especially when the offensive saviour you keep pointing to is none other than 35 year career 86 wRC+ Juan Pierre (it's not 1998; there exist offensive stats that are more important than OBP).


"Offensive saviour"???

Hardly. And this isn't my point. I couldn't care a less about the Marlins as a whole. I care about Stanton, alone. Stanton's RBI numbers are going to have a lot more to do with the #1 or #2 hole's OBP then their WRC+. When Bautista had his breakout season, he was surrounded by a supporting cast of bad hitters...the hitters hitting around him were bad by any metric. Yet he still had over 100 Runs scored and RBI's...generated by a boatload of Home Runs.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby kab21 » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:44 am

The hitters on those Blue Jays teams and the hitters on the 2013 marlins are nothing similar. I have already said that the Marlins this year are a special kind of bad and inflating your projections for the #1/2 doesn't change that at all.

It's actually much worse for Stanton since it's an NL team and the pitcher hits 9th while Stanton hits 3rd.

You are still neglecting to acknowledge that he won't get anything good to hit with runners on base due absolutely awful hitters behind him.

Because the entire team is awful the number of PA's Stanton gets will also decline.
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby OBPlover » Fri Apr 12, 2013 4:32 am

kab21 wrote:The hitters on those Blue Jays teams and the hitters on the 2013 marlins are nothing similar. I have already said that the Marlins this year are a special kind of bad and inflating your projections for the #1/2 doesn't change that at all.


How is predicting Juan Pierre having a .345 OBP "inflating" when it's his career OBP????

you may be very surprised by this...but 15 out of 30 of Stanton's at bat's this year have come with runners on base.


It's actually much worse for Stanton since it's an NL team and the pitcher hits 9th while Stanton hits 3rd.


Every NL team has a pitcher hitting ninth. And every NL #3 hitter faces this disadvantage.

You are still neglecting to acknowledge that he won't get anything good to hit with runners on base due absolutely awful hitters behind him.


Protection is a flawed theory. I don't really want to get into it, because it's a lengthy topic unto itself and there are many threads around discussing it.

Consider this....

The majority of fantasy baseball writers, columnists, bloggers etc. projected good numbers out of Stanton for this season. Pretty much all of them projected him in the top 20, if not the top 12. Did they just have a mental lapse and forget all about the lack of quality in the Marlins lineup?
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Re: Gian Stanton - Anyone else concerned?

Postby SpecialFNK » Fri Apr 12, 2013 6:37 am

Juan Pierre is now 35 years old. I wouldn't want to be counting on him to have a high OBP. I think he could still get to .330. he had .329 his last full season with the White Sox in 2011.

with whoever is batting behind Stanton right now, this is like the opposite of protection, because he doesn't have protection. why would any pitcher give him anything close to the strike zone? unless a pitcher thinks he is so good and wants to challenge Stanton. but why when Placido Polonaco is the batter behind him.
I doubt any projections for Stanton were done with the thought of having Polanco batting clean up.

now maybe things can change once Logan Morrison returns. maybe he would take over batting 4th?
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